D. Wayne Lukas in graded stakes
 

Chalybeate Springs' loss in the Iroquois brought his losing streak to 93. It goes back to Dublin's win in the Hopeful. I am going to say it ends next week with Hamazing Destiny.

Be careful, I like him also.

OK, much as I would like to see him win, enlighten me as to why you guys like him.

First and foremost, if the 8 horses who have first preference in the Sprint go it will be one of the weakest fields in the history of the race.

In terms of the Phoenix itself, he was in a very untenable position going around the far turn and eventually shifted all the way outside before making a nice late move. The winner had a perfect trip on a gold rail while both he and Aikenite raced outside. As far as his three Saratoga races go, the James Marvin was an excellent race as he was wide and off the strong rail. The Vanderbilt is a throwout since he was wide on another strong rail. The Forego was excellent considering where the other pacesetters ended up when all was said and done.

What people using the advance PPs will see that those in the final edition will not is that his best career race came on the Churchill main track in his first start after the Phoenix in 2009.

His lack of a graded stake win is certainly an issue but you can't deny that the majority of his best races are at CD with the only blemish being on the slop in the CD Handicap in 2010.

Fair enough. It is an open race, for sure, unless Caleb's Posse's connections smarten up. I thought his Phoenix was poor, as it was a bad field, and I didn't think he ran particularly well, but at the very least, he's not really a synth horse.

Nick pretty much summed up why I like him also. I'd love to see anyone other than Albarado up though.

I agree the Phoenix was a poor race, but he's not a synth horse. Two of his three Saratoga races were strong efforts I thought and most importantly he seems to run a lot better at Churchill than anywhere else.

What do you do with Dullahan now that he's running on the dirt?

Give Dale a hard time for running him there, root for him, but not bet a penny.

That's probably the right approach, but I loved his last race so much that I don't know if I can let him go if he's 8-1+. It's not like his brother couldn't handle the main track, and maybe they put him on turf to get him going long as early as possible. Have to look at him a little closer still.

[quote=Dahoss;813916]I'd love to see anyone other than Albarado up though.

:tro::tro::tro:

saw the bykster at the downs today..

8:1 would be inviting, but I don't buy that he's a dirt horse. However, I can see throwing him in.

Back to the sprint....aren't they all running for second if Jackson Bend decides to go there?

Am I an idiot for thinking Force Freeze has a big shot here?

Agreed on Hamazing Destiny looking to run big though, especially if they can convince Rosario to get back on.

Why can't he win? He's run two straight good races.

I think Force Freeze is very live. Spoke to his old trainer Doug Watson, and he said the following:

"He struggled mightily with the all weather! I know he won and had some good runs on it, but he always came back sore. It was a body soreness and it was hard to pin down where he was sore. He also bled pretty badly in some last season except for the Jebel Ali Sprint, where he scoped completely clean."

Bottom line - he needed Lasix and dirt.

What kind of odds are we thinking assuming Jackson Bend and Caleb's Posse both go in the dirt mile?

I think they may all be running for second. I just don't see anyone catching Euroears.

Paul

I know the CA clockers are all agog over Euroears, but I don't like him at all. Take a careful look at his Vosburgh. He wasn't keeping up before he was eliminated. Perhaps it was the mud, but I'm dubious.

Cross a line through Trappe Shot's run in the mud at Bel (which was still OK) and he's far and away the best in here. Don't really understand why they're going first preference in the Mile.

Most of all, though, as much as I like him I'm very much against Big Drama in here as the ML favorite. Of those that remain, I don't have a great opinion but I'd love to see the NY bred Giant Ryan win.

Ran into a few clockers at CD today who said there is little doubt that horses simply run over top of the surface at SA, it's just rock solid, whereas the CD strip (at least right now) is much deeper and forces the horse to get into the dirt while running...and they seem to think this could make a difference for west-coast prepared horses in the BC. ("make a difference" = not run as well as their west coast form or preps indicate)

I don't really know what to think, just sharing.

I think Apriority may be sitting on a big race. His form is dirtied, he has races fast enough to win, and he will be a good price.

could not agree more.

I think a knee jerk reaction was made right after the Vosburgh to run him in the Mile.

On the October 1st card at Belmont, closers had NO shot.

yes.

Jackson Bend will be sprinting.

Maybe Im the only one, but I dont love Jackson Bend cutting back again. I agree with Phil about Trappe Shot and I believe Euroears is razor sharp right now. What about Amazombie? With Big Drama being a huge question mark this race could totally collapse.

You agree with Phil about Trappe Shot? OK, then, how does this possibly impact Jackson Bend?

You think the race could collapse, but like Amazombie...and not Jackson Bend?

I don't love Amazombie, I think he has a chance. Wont Amazombie be around 10-1 and Jackson Bend around 5-2? If that's the case I would cover Amazombie. As of now, 5 days out I like Trappe Shot, Euroears and a little Amazombie. Jackson Bend got really good this summer, really good. I respect him and Zito. I guess my problem with him is getting up going 6f against the very best of the division.

It's usually good to have some idea who is running in what races when forming opinions. Then again, that's just me. You clearly work in a much different way.

This should be seen as an omen for Nick. :D

No doubt. If there was any wavering, there shouldn't be now.

My concern with Jackson Bend isn't his talent, he clearly fits on credentials and figures. It's simply the fact that Sprint winners nearly always are 6F specialists. HOWEVER, one thing to note is 6F at CD is actually 6.25F and this extra bit might be enough given the pace figures to be lively.



I'll cover him but not focus on him.

It's not like Jackson Bend has an Aldebaran-type style. He has some tactical speed.

With respect to 6f specialists dominating the race, Gulch, Smile, Precisionist, Dancing Spree, Cherokee Run, Artax, Orientate, Silver Train, and Midnight Lute would suggest a horse like Jackson Bend's style can get it done.

By past Breeders Cup Sprint standards ... there isn't a whole lot of speed in there.

The Vosburgh winner did go wire-to-wire -- but he hadn't seen an early lead since 2008 and there are nickle claimers who could outfoot him before throwing on the air-breaks.

Big Drama won this race wire-to-wire last year in a similar not so speed crazed BC Sprint -- he got an assist from some poor breakers -- Pachito The Che was left. BD can stalk/press and he's not killer fast.

I suppose good ole 7yo Euroears will be on the lead.

If you look at recent Moss pace figs -- I think that M and H Training & Sales Trianburger horse running in the Juvenile Sprint could get loose in there before firing on the air-breaks.

What Im saying, but better put I guess.

Fair examples, but the difference is all of those were anywhere from very very good to hall of fame level types, and whereas JB is merely a "good" horse.

I'm expecting 21:2, 43:4 type numbers. Quick but not absurd by CD standards.

If they go 43&4...Jackson Bend should win easy.

How does Kona Gold get left off this list?

He was talking about horses who weren't necessarily 6F specialists... Kona Gold was practically the definition of a 6F specialist. One of my all time favorites.

I'd say KG was more of a 5.5F specialist, so technically speaking....