Let's Make Things Interesting (A Proposal)
 

Ok here goes. We need to liven things up a bit so I have a proposal.

I will put up a grand that says the one of the following horses will not win the Breeders Cup Classic. Bernardini- the top 3 year old, Invasor- the top older horse, and Lava Man- the top West Coast horse.(The bet would start now) Bernardini could be even money or less by himself in the BCC. You need to give me 3/2(which is a freaking gift but I'll do it anyway.) So 1500 from your end, a grand from me. I'm sure I'll get more than one taker here so I'll sort through and make sure I'm not betting against a degenerate who can't afford to lose it. (1 person in the end)

The money will be held by Steve (if he's cool with that) until the Breeders Cup.

randle your my kind of guy....just the fact that they have to get there then win it...even money is more like it...

Over/Under on the amount of people who post here that can "afford" to lose a grand or fifteen hundred?

true gander...that not a play i would make if i had 100,000...

I disagree. These are the top 3 choices. There is less than 7 weeks till the Breeders Cup. They each have only 1 start left before the race. To me this is a more than fair wager.

I agree with Randall. Thats a very geneorus wager. Problem is I dont think Invasor has much of a shot at all, him to me isnt much of an addition.
Another problem (much bigger one) is I'll be honest here, I cant afford to lose a grand.

Chances are god one of them doesn't make the race.

I'll take the field at 7/5 for a Hondo.

You can hold my money.

The only single thing I wager anywhere near or over $1,000 on is the Under in the Pro Bowl.

dini if right should win it..lava isnt for me outside of cali and invasor struggled with sun king late ...all it takes is a miss step in taining or a cold and you win...pass ...

No thanks.......
 

I have to say that even if I had a grand I wouldn't take any of that action, cuz your problably right! Those are all fine horses, and top contenders this years BC should be as competitive as any in history! By the way, any thoughts on the fact that Tom Durkin will not call the BC races for the first time in their history? Durkin is one of the best in the business, he will be missed at least by this fan of his terricic race calls. Trevor Denman is great and will d a great job, myself though I would have preferred Vic Stauffer, his calls really are what the excitment of the sport of kings should sound like! Love to hear anyone's thoughts on the top announcers in racing.

We've had numerous discussions on track announcers. There are no right/wrong answers, just personal preferences. I like Denman the best and then Durkin and I guess Stauffer. Those 3 are about it for me.

I think we can all agree on the fact that Mike Battaglia shouldnt be a track announcer :cool:

'gaaaaaiiining ground"...nails on a chalkboard..ech..

I can afford to lose $1500. But I wouldnt make that bet. I have no idea who is going to run. I dont know if the track will be muddy or fast etc etc. Plus I am not going to risk $1500 to win $1000. That is crazy.

On 2 horses much less, even though Bernardini is a superstar.
Invasor isnt much if he cant beat Sun King by more than a headbob.

this is a pretty ridiculous thread. why would anyone lay $1500 to win $1000. the only horse that would make sense to wager on is bernardini. lava man and invasor are not going to beat him. give me bernardini, david junior, and electrocutionist and I will lay the $1000 to your $1000.

I already have a $100 bet with Mike concerning Lava, I don't know what $1,000 looks like

Lol...right now, a grand is twice what I have to my name...I don't make "future" bets anyway but I'll admit it...I'm almost broke!

I tried to rob peter to pay paul but peter was broke as well

I think this is hysterical. All I read is how Bernardini is the second coming of Secretariat, or how Invasor can turn the tables, or how Lava Man is completely underappreciated and will prove it in the Breeders Cup. If all 3 make it, I look like a complete moron. I think 2 is most likely...The truth is that I thought this would be an interesting wager, not b/c I feel that strongly about it.

You know what, these are the top 3 but be my guest, same rules apply 1000 to 1500, but pick the 3 horses in the world you want and I'll still do it.

It's clearly not a "generous wager", Gander. And it's simple to prove it's a bad bet. You can do better by betting futures at BetGameday.com:

09/09/2006
17:00 Bernadini 12 to 5
Max bet to win $3000
09/09/2006
17:00 Invasor 13 to 2
Max bet to win $3000
09/09/2006
17:00 Lava Man 7 to 1
Max bet to win $3000

From those odds, you can construct a bet that will be better than giving 3-2 to Randall. I'll give an example in a few minutes.

--Dunbar

That is the big kicker in the deal IMO....if we can make a provision that those three horses that you mentioned have to be in the starting gate that day or the bet is null and void, then I may give you some action...

Keep this in mind, you are essentually offering .66 - 1 odds by your proposal, which is not exactly "giving away" money by any means....hell, Bernardini and Invasor (depending on how they run against each other in the JC Gold Cup) will be even-money and 7/2 or more, realsitically...and Lava Man will be around 4-1 or more IMO (early forecasts) - thus if i used $1,500 to bet these horses to WIN tactfully based on their odds, I would bet $1000 to win on Bernardini and $250 to WIN on both Invasor and Lava Man at around 4-1 - creating value with my $1,500 capital that you would win and I would be in a less risky position than you are right now having those horses in the gate GUARANTEED to me....

Plus, I think Bernardini is going to win the race anyway, so if I bet him on his nose I think I can get a price better than .66 - 1 anyway, or at least take my chances......;)

Randall would have a GREAT bet in this case. Randall could turn around and get Bernardine at 12-5, David Junior at 12-1, and Electrocutionist at 25-1, all at BetGameday.com (also at VIPSports.com). Randall would be GETTING about 3-2, while he'd be GIVING 1-1. You'd be getting the worst of it by far, Revolution.

--Dunbar

Dun, I did some numbers in my head and 3/2 is what I came up with. But run the math and see what you think. Also consider that not everyone on here is that comfortable sending money offshore.

Randall, I didn't mean to suggest you were purposely offering a bad bet to people. When I first looked at your offer, I couldn't immediately say either way whether it was attractive or not. It was only when I saw that Gameday had those futures up that I could see it wasn't "generous". In fact, your offer IS better than what one would get by betting at World Sports Exchange's futures. (wsex.com)

Here's how someone betting at Gameday (or its sister, VIPsports.com) could do better than your offer.

Bet $660 on Bernardini at 12-5. You collect $2244 if Bernardini wins.
Bet $300 on Invasor at 13-2. You collect $2250 if Invasor wins.
Bet $280 on Lava Man at 7-1. You collect $2240 if Invasor wins.

The total bet is $1240. The profit will be between $1000 and $1010, depending on which horse wins.

So, it would be risking $1240 to win $1000+. That's way better than putting up $1500 to win $1000.

--Dunbar

PS. Your point about some people not wanting to bet offshore is valid. And I am no fan of Gameday, despite their "A" rating at SportsbookReview.com.

PPS. Accept Revolution's offer as fast as you can!

Dun,

I don't know Revolution, doubtful I'd do anything with him, plus he seems to be offering even money on a grand and I'm not going for that.

If I knew him/her, I'd gladly take the even money offer. As I said, I could turn around and GET 3-2 on the same 3 horses offshore.

Let's say I spread $1000 on Bernardini, David Junior and Electrocutionist at Gameday. If one of them wins, I'd win $1500. I'd pay Revolution the $1000 and still have a $500 net profit. If some other horse wins, I collect $1000 from Revolution and lose $1000 at Gameday, breaking even. So, I'd either make $500 or break even. That's the kind of bet I like.

--Dunbar

Again, Dun, I'm at the whim of someone on a message board without a rep on here sending money to Steve. So what happens when you go and place those bets offshore right now and the guy renegs on the offer. You are holding the bag

It's not quite as good as I said, Randall. I could get $1440 for my $1000, not $1500. Here's how:

Bet $718 on Bernardini at 12-5
Bet $188 on David Junior at 12-1
Bet $94 on Electrocutionist at 25-1

Total bet is $1000. No matter which horse of the 3 wins, I profit between $1441 and $1444. So if I combine that with the 1-1 bet with Revolution, I'd either win $441+ or I'd break even.

I agree with you completely about only making bets with people you are comfortable with. I'm not really advocating you should take the bet vs a stranger. I also doubt that Steve is willing to be the middle man in such a bet. But if he were, you could wait until Rev's money was in Steve's hands. You do not have much exposure in not grabbing the offshore odds right away. In fact, when Pinnacle and TheGreek put up odds, I'd expect them to beat Gameday's odds on 2 of the 3 horses.

--Dunbar

Didn't break down the math like Dunbar - but you are right....nice job Dun!

I was curious to see what Dunbar would have to say about this, Rupe says he's the goods and I believe him...

Thanks for the kind words, CR and Pointg.

--Dunbar

Clearly, 1 of these horses will not win the BCC. Almost certainly, 2 of them will not win it (barring a deadheat). But one of them will win it. Most likely 'dini.....

I'll bet everything I own against a 3 horse deadheat!!!

The offer has been pulled.... Randall

why? did you like Electrocutionist?
I'd go 150-100
you could make 10 like that
be the same bet
1500 is hard to come up with
I'd have to liquidate

Coach, long story short, I was asked to pull it, so I did.

Should've done it. You would have grand off me. They run 1-2. Ha ha.

Lol, if I'd have had a grand...

shucks, I was gonna do it until you pulled the bet
at Steve's bequest (so I figure I better go take it
out of his ass at Carolina BBQ) LOL
I'll make the same proposition for 2007 on the same 3!