First Race after the Layoff
 

Any tips/thoughts on determining when to bet a horse running his first race off a layoff or deciding that its "going to need one"?

Well tons of things to consider here in my opinion.

1) has the work schedule been consistant over the past couple of months
2) how was the horse performing prior to the layoff
3) what is the trainer % with horses off of a layoff
4) at what level is the horse competing. Example: If the horse was competing in $30k allowance races and he is entered in a $10k claiming race then that tells me they want to get rid of the horse. Then you have to ask why do they want to get rid of him.
5) what is the competition in the race
6) are wraps on that werent there before the layoff

Take all that and then make a decision.

some trainers are great at bringing them back live..but for me it would be on a case to case basis..depending on conditions of the race ect..

Thanks! Regarding #6, and I hope this doesn't sound like a stupid question, but is that something you have to notice yourself by having seen the horse in the paddock before or do they note that in the PP's? I recall several people calling into the Down the Stretch show (which is a Saturday a.m program shown here in NY) about Bluegrass Cat's addition of them, but I was looking more for BGC to be 'on his toes' than thinking about the wraps. Regardless, he wouldn't have breathed the same air as Bernardini in the stretch but I had never thought of the addition of them being an issue.

I prob wouldnt be the best person to ask. But when I look over a horse, I always check for wraps. Wraps on the back legs concerns me more than wraps on the front. Maybe someone can chime in and answer you question.

? On the east coast 90% of horses race with hind wraps?

So, I dont get your point. If a horse has never raced with wraps and then I notice them on the back legs then that concerns me more so than seeing them in the front. If a horse has always used wraps then it doesnt bother me at all.

Check a trainers ITM% on layoff horses. You'd be surprised how many trainers win like 10% with layoff horses but are in the money 52% usually at good prices since everybody knows who the high % guys are. You can get some live longshots especially if the horse was off form before the layoff.

How do you keep track of who wears hind bandages?

I keep track. I dont bet very often and I have a tendency to follow a certain horse. Plus if I do handicap a random race, then I will go back and check the race replays to check for them.

Interesting...I can see your point. What about track condition, do you take into consideration. Have you found bandages added on turf to be more negative?

Thanks!
I'm trying to get rid of my "wait and see" approach. :D

I will only bet a dry track (dirt) unless the track is off on Bc Day or Ky Derby day then I will bet. I love betting turf races regardless of condition. Wraps or bandages to me is a negative if they werent on in prior races regardless if the race is on dirt or turf. However, I do not make my final decision soley based on wraps.

There was a horse called Sir Batman that ran at River Downs years ago. This is my all time favorite horse. I followed him for 3 years. I noticed that he would race with wraps every other race. When he raced with wraps he performed great, without them he performed poorly. These are things that I try to find to give me an edge.

Most everything that I have heard was wraps on the front are a bad sign, although Afleet Alex added them during his 3yo campaign. They put them on Silverbulletday towards the end of her career and I just read that they added them to BGC before the Travers, that was a bad sign....

I think wraps of any kind that are added are bad. But maybe I am wrong. Maybe the front is worse. I always have had experiece with the back being worse. Maybe someone who knows something about wraps and why they are used can share some knowledge.

I've read by someone who used to groom that front wraps are added because the hindend of the horse is sore so they end up putting more weight on the front. Does make sense, if you've got a sprain or anything it's usually your 'good' leg that ends up the worse for wear.

Most horses that wear back bandages use them to prevent burning their heels (running down). On the east coast where the tracks are deeper they are used more frequently than the west coast. Polytracks should lessen the need for such rundowns.

I'm no expert on the subject, but I spent 4-5 summers on the backstretch while I was growing up. The couple of trainers that I worked for called them "run down bandages" because on some tracks that have deep sandy surfaces, Delaware Park was one, some horses had a tendency to run down behind. I'm no expert on horse terminology but thier rear leg right above the hoof would get rubbed down, which is kind of like a brush burn in humans. I know this isn't the case on why wraps are used, but I don't think of it as a horse being sore...Just my take.

Fronts on a young horse for the first time can never be taken as a positve. Fronts for the 10th straight race on a cheap claimer are meaningless. Everything else is a matter of interpretation.

The main thing is this.... You see fronts on a class plunging young horse comng off a layoff without decent works, etc... and who is a short-priced favorite, you have a solid opportunity at a good score on a single race exotic (Tri, Super).

Tri and Super wagers are the way to go if you have a high confidence level a short-priced chalk is going to run out.

I've never been upset when I bet these and I'm wrong and the chalk wins easy. That's the way it goes. But when you are correct, the wins far more than outweigh the cost of tossing a lousy chalk.

I also look at how long the race is especially if it's more than 60 days. I have no stats/research on this, but if a horse is coming back in a sprint race I'm not as worried about it, if they're going a route i'm more inclined to give them a race while also taking into consideration what's mentioned above (trainer,works, has the horse fired well off a similar layoff, etc.)

We're talking about two different types of wraps.

Found this on abouthorseracing.com:

PHYSICALITY HANDICAPPING
NEGATIVE EQUIPMENT
Dateline: 12/27/00
By Joe Takach publisher of "Southern California Horses to Watch"


No discussion on “physicality handicapping” would be complete without an in depth look at negative equipment and how this negative equipment literally “robs“ you at the mutuel windows.

If you currently play the major Southern California racing circuit, you might be interested in knowing that this negative equipment is tracked by the staff of the SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH. It is published weekly in their “Master No-No List”.

Probably the best place to begin is with front wraps.

The Daily Racing Form now offers their readers notification of the addition and deletion of front wraps. But a caveat is in order if you use the Racing Form information------at least in Southern California!

Innumerable times they completely miss the addition and deletion of front wraps when the wraps are black in color. One can only assume that the person on the Racing Form’s staff responsible for this extremely important piece of information fails to visit the paddock each and every race, or fails to use binoculars from his “comfy” armchair in the press box.

Trainers John Dolan and Doug Peterson always use black front wraps in Southern California, yet they are missed 100% of the time by the Racing Form staff if the horse in question is a bay or is black or dark brown in color. Unless you’re close up and on top of a horse in the paddock or use binoculars from the press box, these wraps are very easy to miss on dark-coated horses! One can only assume that if this is happening on the major Southern California circuit at Del Mar, Santa Anita and Hollywood Park, it is happening elsewhere as well to include your own circuit!

Since long front leg bandages imply tendon problems either real or imagined, many trainers tape every claiming horse that they run to make other trainers “think twice” before dropping a claim slip on their runner. In other words, it’s similar to bluffing in poker. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the horse to warrant those front bandages. If the trainer can imply tendon and/or ankle problems, it’s a cheap insurance policy that guarantees he’ll still be the trainer of the horse after the race. Sometimes it is easy to scare off potential claim-aways-----especially the higher up the claiming ladder you go!

I can’t possibly see how front leg bandages really help or hurt any horse. If he’s basically sound, they won’t stop him from winning unless the track is muddy and mud could cling to the bandages making his legs heavier and slightly harder to lift with every stride.

If he’s unsound, the tape won’t stop him from bowing a tendon. If it could, all horses would race in front wraps in every lifetime start and there would never again be another bowed tendon! Of course we know that isn’t reality and horses will continue to “bow” even if you make them look like “mummies”!

Do horses ever win with front wraps? Sure they do and at every racetrack every day!

Okay, so why even mention them?

Simply because the addition of front wraps can never be seen as a plus!

The trainer using them believes that they will help a problem (unless he’s faking so as not to lose the horse via the claim box). While they might add some, and I only say some, support to the damaged or problematic area and delay the inevitable breakdown, front wraps won’t stop it!

Ok, so why are you even mentioning them?

Because there are a few things you should look for.

If a horse has won with front wraps in the past, he’ll most likely win with them in the future. Old front wraps have never bothered me, provided that the horse in question passes “muster” in every other category of readiness.

What bothers me is first-time front wraps or the re-adding of front wraps.

If you are in the paddock and see a horse show up with front wraps for the 1st time, look to see if one ankle appears bigger than the other. Unless the trainer is bluffing, you’ll most likely see swelling somewhere under the wrapping. If you do, it is better to pass the race if this newly front-wrapped horse was your betting choice “on paper”-----it costs absolutely nothing to pass a race!

Short bandages on the rear legs are used to protect horses who have the problem of “running down”. These horses scrape the back part of their rear ankles when racing. These short rear wraps serve as protection to the skin when running over sandy surfaces. As long as there is no swelling evident, rear wraps would never stop me from betting a horse if he looked physically correct in every other respect.

Liniment and/or sweet smelling body rubs are used to counteract soreness by increasing heat in the area of soreness or injury. If you’ve never experienced the “smell” of a muscle sore horse, I encourage you to visit your paddock area during the cheapest races of the day.

Horses rubbed with liniment are easy to locate. A very heavy exotic scent quickly saturates the paddock air as the rubbed horse walks around. If you look closely at each and every horse, one or more of them will have very shinny areas on their coats or legs. On the body, look for the shoulders, back, or hind to have a slick or shinny spot. Frequently the rubbed area is about a foot square. If on the legs, it can be anywhere from the hoof up to the barrel (main body).

Muscle sore horses are always a no-no!

Muscle sore horses rarely generate enough speed to be competitive anywhere in a race. Just think back to the time that you were sore from overwork or a wrenched muscle.

Were you at your best? I doubt it!

If you smell liniment and can identify who is wearing it, toss them out!

What about horses at the Stakes level? Do you notice more often or not that they are entered to 'prep' for something else? Whereas a claimer/allowance horse is out there to win?

Euro mentioned both front and rear wraps. I only was commenting on the rear.