SAT - Churchill (Kentucky Derby) R4-R13
 

Happy Derby Day


Churchill Downs


R4 - OC 80k/N3X

#8 Snow Top Mountain (5-2)
#1 Riviera Chic (6-1)
#4 Persuading (4-1)
#2 War Tigress (10-1)

R5 - OC 75k N1X

#4 Depeche Chat (4-1)
#6 Lee Chapel (15-1)
#3 Fusa Code (7-2)
#2 Saratoga Red (3-1)

R6 - G3 Turf Sprint (Turf 5F)

#8 Bridgetown (5-2)
#5 Chamberlain Bridge (2-1)
#3 Custom for Carlos (3-1)
#2 Regally Ready (3-1)

R7 -G1 Humana Distaff

#3 Evening Jewel (5-1)
#7 Hilda's Passion (6-5)
#6 Twelve Twenty Two (8-1)
#4 Amen Hallelujah (5-1)

PK4 - 1 4 8 / 2 3 4 6 / 2 3 5 8 / 3 7 = $48 ($.50 play)

R8 - G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Turf 8F)

#5 Aviate (GB) (5-1)
#2 Upperline (9-2)
#1 Tapitsfly (7-2)
#6 Aruna (4-1)

R9 - Churchill Downs Handicap

#4 Captain Cherokee (6-1)
#6 Capt. Candyman Can (9-2)
#2 Smiling Tiger (7-2)
#10 Noble's Promise (10-1)

R10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Turf 9F)

#8 Doubles Partner (6-1)
#9 Al Khali (10-1)
#12 Court Vision (4-1)
#6 Smart Bid (8-1)

R11 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 Archarcharch - Dreadful post hurts his chances drastically.
#2 Brilliant Speed - Albertrani might be doing a rain dance for his closer.
#3 Twice the Appeal - Looks to be the underlay of the century.
#4 Stay Thirsty - No where in the Florida Derby and barely kept pace with the injured Uncle Mo in latest workout.
#5 Decisive Moment - Handled correctly for Derby start, but seems way overmatched.
#6 Comma to the Top - Pace setter will struggle turning for home.
#7 Pants On Fire - Rosie has an outside shot to make history.
#8 Dialed In - Should get a nice step up from a great draw. No excuses.
#9 Derby Kitten - Hard to imagine anything better than a mid-pack finish.
#10 Twinspired - Takes a plunge into the deep waters.
#11 Master of Hounds - Doesn't seem that O'Brien came across the pond for the Mint Juleps.
#12 Santiva - Better than his dull performance in the Blue Grass.
#13 Mucho Macho Man - Hard knocker has to be considered underneath.
#14 Shackleford - Showed some serious grit in FL Derby and has been training well.
#15 Midnight Interlude - Carries the Apollo jinx and will be overbet after his stablemate took the KY Oaks.
#16 Animal Kingdom - No question that this versatile runner can handle the distance, now what about the dirt?
#17 Soldat - Interesting to see what tactics are employed. Moves up if wet.
#18 Uncle Mo - Scratched
#19 Nehro - Nakatani can't afford to make a mistake from tough post.
#20 Watch Me Go - Beaten 17 lengths in weak IL Derby. Pass.

#19 Nehro
#16 Animal Kingdom
#8 Dialed In
#17 Soldat
#14 Shackleford

PK4 - 1 2 6 8 11 / 2 4 6 10 / 5 9 / 8 16 19 = $60 ($.50 play)

R12 - Alw 53.5k

#1 After Shock (4-1) - Possibly properly named after Derby 137.
#6 Firm Resolve (12-1)
#4 De Price (6-1)
#7 Lou Brissie (10-1)
#9 Streakin' Mohican (2-1)

R13 - MSW 49k

#3 Shrill (4-1)
#4 Scuff (6-1)
#1 Gentle Tap (3-1)
#9 Bonaroo (10-1)

PK4 - 5 6 8 9 12 13 / 8 16 19 / 1 4 6 / 3 4 = $54 ($.50 play)

Good Racing Luck

My choice for this Derby is the ALL key on the machines.

A note on Al Khali - I saw this horse up close and personal and I saw a horse with the physical ability and absolutely no interest in racing.

Happy Derby Day to you too Gus

he's won over 500,000, but has no interest in racing?

Good luck today Gus!

Gus..

Great job yesterday... I really appreciate your insights....

(In the 8th race.... You have Aviate as the five... ) Just in case you have it wrong on your spread sheets...

Good luck today...

Seth

Good luck to you today, Gus ... gotta ask though ... what were you looking at when watching Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo? In my opinion, Stay Thirsty had the better work?

Great job yesterday, and BOL today!!

Please check, in the 8th, Aviate is the #8, not #5 as listed, and also in the 10th, Doubles Partner is the #8 not #5 as listed. Please also double check the P4 as I think you have the numbers mixed in the Woodford.

Let's bring home that double!!!

Gus Congrats on being all over the Derby. I hope you played some sort of exotic. Also congrats on the Oaks Derby double. Just another fantastic performance!

Hands down the best handicapper on this site is Bogey.

Great job as always, Mr Chicago.

You are the MAN, Bogey. :D

Great job Gus. :tro::$:

Thanks everybody, best cash out day ever.

I'm going to go ahead an REDBOARD, I hit the Oaks/Derby Double multiple times along with the Exacta ($20), Trifecta $2, and Superfecta $1.

By far my biggest score ever. I hope some jumped aboard.

Thanks Randall, I told you Animal Kingdom would go off at in the 20-1 range.. OK, I know you're going to come back and tell me the price came down because Johny V.

Thanks for the Kudos

That's Awesome Gus! Congrats!

He was available at 40-1 offshore a few days ago...Kudos you deserve. This is a tough board with capable people but you are seriously the most consistent great player around. So treat yourself to something nice with the winning. :tro:

Congrats twice... Baby gets a new pair of pink golf shoes!

Fantastic work !!!

[quote=randallscott35;775176]He was available at 40-1 offshore a few days ago...Kudos you deserve. This is a tough board with capable people but you are seriously the most consistent great player around. So treat yourself to something nice with the winning. :tro:[/QUOTE

Thanks Randalll. Matt. and Steve

Thanks. Just got back from the OTB, Hope everyone cashed out.

Gus,

Sublime effort. Congrats on the tremendous opinions, scores and yet another great Oaks/Derby diagnosis! Hope listeners took advantage again.

Thanks Steve, I consider myself lucky to being able to share my opinion on this site.

Thanks for all you do.

Gus

Super work! Congrats!

great day gus

:confused: :) :tro: :$:

Great job!! My progression of emotion yesterday is outlined with these silly smilies...

Thanks Jeff, Hughes, and Ed.

super effort Bogey on an obviously difficult race to cap. Of the 24 handicappers listed in the drf only 1 (Steve Klein) had the exacta in the their top 4 selections and only 6 of 24 even mentioned Animal Kingdom in their top 4. So congrats on a herculean effort!!

Thanks Mr.G, it's funny you mentioned that about the DRF handicappers because Steve Klien is the one I respect the most.

did you ever read his book about speed and frontrunners

Nice day Gus! You are solid as a rock.

Fantastic job Gus, Congrats!

Wow Gus that is truly the ultimate score. An absolute Grand Slam, congrats again and enjoy spending your bounty!

:$::$:

Great job Gus just 1 question, what was the thought process that caused you to include Mucho Macho man in your picks in order to hit the Trifecta and Superfecta?

I don't want to speak for Gus, but maybe it was something like ' if I'm right about Nehro and Animal Kingdom, and spread a little underneath, maybe I can nail the super for 24 large'

Congrats and thanks for all the insights.

Glad you nailed 'em, a very well deserved score!!!

It isn't much of a redboard considering you gave out the top two finishers as your top two selections before the race.
Congrats on doing a great job on a tough race.

Tom, you are exactly right. I keyed off Nehro and Animal Kingdom and spread with 4 others underneath. In my comment about Mucho Macho Man I stated to consider him underneath.

I appreciate the kudos from everyone.

Way to go Gus...you earned every dime. Congrats....its the kind of day every player thinks about and it is fantastic to have everyone on the board here support the success of others.

Yes, very useful.