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-   -   Vote on Debt Limit increase? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41925)

joeydb 04-19-2011 09:14 AM

Vote on Debt Limit increase?
 
What would you do as a member of Congress?

dellinger63 04-19-2011 09:26 AM

Huge suprise but I'd vote as Obama did when he was in the Senate: NO

randallscott35 04-19-2011 09:40 AM

There is no backbone. We will collapse.

somerfrost 04-19-2011 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 770147)
There is no backbone. We will collapse.

I hate to see it raised but the ramifications of not doing so outweigh increased debt.

joeydb 04-19-2011 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost (Post 770164)
I hate to see it raised but the ramifications of not doing so outweigh increased debt.

Yes, IF we start to pay it down aggressively now. If not, the outcome is exactly the same and all the more permanent once we are cut off from borrowing instead of deciding to reduce the debt on our own.

dellinger63 04-19-2011 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost (Post 770164)
I hate to see it raised but the ramifications of not doing so outweigh increased debt.

We have to face the music someday. Better to do it while the fat lady is still singing in english.

somerfrost 04-19-2011 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63 (Post 770167)
We have to face the music someday. Better to do it while the fat lady is still singing in english.

No, we can't cut off our heads to spite our nose...we must raise the ceiling and enact meaningful debt reduction at the same time.

timmgirvan 04-19-2011 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by somerfrost (Post 770181)
No, we can't cut off our heads to spite our nose...we must raise the ceiling and enact meaningful debt reduction at the same time.

I gotta go with this one!

Riot 04-19-2011 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 770140)
What would you do as a member of Congress?

You have to vote yes. There isn't any option that will not irrepairably harm this country regarding our credit rating and interest rates, and our standing in the world financial community if "no" votes dominate. To think that there is a choice, is beyond absurd. This vote is not the place for anyone to "take a stand". That's stupid.

geeker2 04-19-2011 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 770188)
You have to vote yes. There isn't any option that will not irrepairably harm this country regarding our credit rating and interest rates, and our standing in the world financial community if "no" votes dominate. To think that there is a choice, is beyond absurd. This vote is not the place for anyone to "take a stand". That's stupid.

Actually you don't. Just because the debt limit isn't raised it doesn't mean we will not make the interest payment on the debt. It just means the government would have to divert payments from elsewhere. You know it's kind of like spending what you can afford.

Maybe they should start by cutting all those flights on Air Force One and wasted congressional trips abroad.....

Riot 04-19-2011 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2 (Post 770195)
Actually you don't. Just because the debt limit isn't raised it doesn't mean we will not make the interest payment on the debt.

It does mean our credit rating is immediately and permanently impacted, and that interest rate has now skyrocketed. Let alone the impact on the world markets. Thinking there is no serious, long-term consequences is absurdly wrong.

So that's "actually, you do".

dellinger63 04-19-2011 07:01 PM

[quote=Riot;770201]
Quote:


Actually you do. It does mean our credit rating is immediately impacted, and that interest rate has now skyrocketed. Thinking there is no "real" consequences is absurd.
What happens in 10-20 years when GDP equals or is less than our interest payment and no one but Cash-For-Gold is willing to give us money? Or will we keep printing monay and a gallon of milk will cost $2K?

Riot 04-19-2011 07:01 PM

[quote=dellinger63;770205]
Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 770201)

What happens in 10-20 years when GDP equals or is less than our interest payment and no one but Cash-For-Gold is willing to give us money? Or will keep printing monay and a gallon of milk will cost $2K?

You don't fix that by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. Do you?

geeker2 04-19-2011 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 770201)
It does mean our credit rating is immediately and permanently impacted, and that interest rate has now skyrocketed. Let alone the impact on the world markets. Thinking there is no serious, long-term consequences is absurdly wrong.

So that's "actually, you do".

Actually it's the Debt that threatens the U.S. credit rating -just ask S&P.

So if you cut spending and stop borrowing you have a winner - so actually you don't.

dellinger63 04-19-2011 07:38 PM

[quote=Riot;770206]
Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63 (Post 770205)

You don't fix that by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. Do you?

If the average tax-paying American family (not the 40% of households who pay no income tax) largest problem in the household was their budget; do they go out and seek more credit cards and financing or do they make do with what they have and try and get back on their feet?

I know if the government was an average family they'd take out credit cards on all the children and babies and let them worry about it while ma and dad partied with the neighbors.

Our number one problem is the debt and now we NEED to increase it? :zz:

Riot 04-19-2011 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63 (Post 770212)
If the average tax-paying American family (not the 40% of households who pay no income tax) largest problem in the household was their budget; do they go out and seek more credit cards and financing or do they make do with what they have and try and get back on their feet?

That's not a very accurate analogy. A more accurate analogy goes to liquidity.

Quote:

Our number one problem is the debt and now we NEED to increase it? :zz:
Yes, we NEED to increase our debt ceiling, or we will harm our rating for decades into the future, and likely force the world into a recession.

Not raising the debt ceiling - defaulting on our obligations - does nothing to change the amount of our debt - it only makes it far more expensive and harder to get in the future. It will hugely increase the cost of the debt we already owe. Yeah, that's smart?

Riot 04-19-2011 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2 (Post 770210)
Actually it's the Debt that threatens the U.S. credit rating -just ask S&P.

So if you cut spending and stop borrowing you have a winner - so actually you don't.

Not raising the debt ceiling isn't an action that cuts spending and borrowing, is it?

And what what type of talk has negatively influenced that recent S & P announcement? Oh, yeah - politicos yammering on about doing something completely idiotic, not raising the debt ceiling.

dellinger63 04-19-2011 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 770213)

Not raising the debt ceiling does nothing to change the amount of our debt - it only makes it far more expensive and harder to get in the future.

Give me a break. We may need to put in a stipulation regarding unforeseen national defense or disasters but we don't need to raise the limit for more useless cash for clunker like programs. We need to trim down as a nation both in weight and debt. We need to accept the private sector and what it can do. No Federal worker should be mowing grass, cleaning toilets or anything else than can be contracted out at a lower price with no pension obligations. Look out for the taxpayer above the government worker. Start there and the rest will fall in place.

Riot 04-19-2011 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63 (Post 770217)
Give me a break. We may need to put in a stipulation regarding unforeseen national defense or disasters but we don't need to raise the limit for more useless cash for clunker like programs. We need to trim down as a nation both in weight and debt. We need to accept the private sector and what it can do. No Federal worker should be mowing grass, cleaning toilets or anything else than can be contracted out at a lower price with no pension obligations. Look out for the taxpayer above the government worker. Start there and the rest will fall in place.

You clearly misunderstand what the debt ceiling is used for, and how it's used on a daily basis.

Yes, we need to markedly trim our expenses (getting rid of two unfunded wars, and finding a way to fund the unfunded huge Medicare giveaway is a start, and letting the Bush tax cuts expire will help immensely), and increase our income (taxes) to help pay for both our expenses and our debt.

That has nothing to do with the necessity to immediately raise the debt ceiling.

Riot 04-19-2011 08:17 PM

Here is a good Ezra Klein (Wash Post) article excerpt - from January - on voting no to raising the debt ceiling, and links to Tim Geithner's letter.

Quote:

The letter Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner sent to Congress on the debt ceiling [ http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/letter.aspx ] is worth reading in full, as it does a nice job describing a danger that I'm not sure most people fully appreciate. My sense is that the mental model most people have of defaulting on the debt ceiling looks something like shutting down the government. But that's not it at all. It's more like shutting down the economy.

Think back to the financial crisis. The underlying cause was that various financial entities stopped believing that their loans would be repaid, and so they stopped making loans, or began demanding such high prices for making loans that credit became unaffordable. The result was economic catastrophe.

If the federal government defaults on its debt, the same thing will happen. But in this case, it will happen to the full faith and credit of the United States, not just to Wall Street.

The basic unit of borrowing in America is the debt that the Treasury sells to finance the government. Much of the rest of the debt in the country -- even when it has no direct connection to the government -- is benchmarked against Treasurys. Treasury debt normally goes for very good prices because it's considered a virtually riskless investment: Modern America has never defaulted on its debt. If that changes, then so too will the prices the market charges to loan the government money.

What happens then? As Geithner explains, "because Treasuries represent the benchmark borrowing rate for all other sectors, default would raise all borrowing costs. Interest rates for state and local government, corporate and consumer borrowing, including home mortgage interest, would all rise sharply. Equity prices and home values would decline, reducing retirement savings and hurting the economic security of all Americans, leading to reductions in spending and investment, which would cause job losses and business failures on a significant scale."

And the damage done by a debt default won't be temporary. Instead, it will permanently introduce a new variable into the market's calculation of America's risk: Right now, the market doesn't believe that our political system would ever allow a debt default. The morning after a default happens, the market will have been proven wrong, and it will have been proven wrong permanently: If it can happen once, it can happen again in 20 years. In that world, the cheap debt that America enjoys and relies on is gone forever, and our economy is likely to be permanently worse off for it.

The good news is that many political players appreciate these dangers. Speaker John Boehner is trying to demand spending cuts as part of a deal, but he's been very careful to say that "America cannot default on its debt." Charles Krauthammer has been similarly declarative. “The Republicans have to be careful here," he told Fox News. "In the end the debt limit will be raised. You can't not pass it. It is catastrophic. It means American debt is in question. It can't happen.”

But these things can take on a life of their own. A revolt among backbench members of Congress killed the first iteration of TARP, which delivered a shock to the market that many economists think intensified the severity of the financial crisis. The immigration bill that George W. Bush sought was also killed by opposition that emerged from the grass-roots and talk radio even as the leaders of the two parties were pushing for a deal.

And you could imagine the same thing happening here: Sen. Jim DeMint, who's often ahead of the curve on where the conservative movement will go next, is fighting an increase in the debt limit, and targeting his message at the GOP's freshmen class. As of yet, we really don't know how much power Boehner has over his members, nor how willing he'll be to fight for things that are necessary for the government but unpopular among his base. So I'm not ready to relax about this yet.

dellinger63 04-19-2011 08:35 PM

We need to lower our debt period. To do so there is no need to raise the debt ceiling. Spending our way out of this got us nowhere but deeper. Time to button up the purse and track every nickel and dime. The party is over and the freeloaders need to go home.

And not speculation but we're already f'd and will suffer a hit on our credit rating. Question is whether it's better to have 1 trillion in debt at 10% or 3 trillion? We need to first turn the money faucet off and then figure out a payment plan for all the money that was allowed to leak out.

Interesting what the 'market' said today, "Gold futures rose to a record $1,500.50 an ounce as U.S. debt concerns weighed on the dollar, boosting demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.

The greenback dropped against the euro on speculation that the European Central Bank will continue to raise borrowing costs as some nations struggle to contain sovereign debt. Standard & Poor’s yesterday revised its long-term outlook on U.S. debt to negative from stable. Gold has climbed 32 percent in the past year, and silver prices have more than doubled.

“The U.S. credit rating will undoubtedly be lowered in the next few years,” said Michael Pento, a senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital in New York. “This will mean much higher borrowing costs and a much lower currency. International investors have been using gold and silver as an alternative currency and an alternative to the dollar, and this will only exacerbate and accelerate that process.”

geeker2 04-19-2011 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 770215)
Not raising the debt ceiling isn't an action that cuts spending and borrowing, is it?

And what what type of talk has negatively influenced that recent S & P announcement? Oh, yeah - politicos yammering on about doing something completely idiotic, not raising the debt ceiling.

Actually that isn't the reason....it's the long term debt.

S&P said, “We believe there is a significant risk that congressional negotiations could result in no agreement on a medium-term fiscal strategy until after the fall 2012 congressional and presidential elections.” In such a case, the first budget that could include serious fiscal measures would be for the 2014 fiscal year, the report concluded, “and we believe a delay beyond that time is possible.”

Riot 04-19-2011 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2 (Post 770223)
Actually that isn't the reason....it's the long term debt.

S&P said, “We believe there is a significant risk that congressional negotiations could result in no agreement on a medium-term fiscal strategy until after the fall 2012 congressional and presidential elections.” In such a case, the first budget that could include serious fiscal measures would be for the 2014 fiscal year, the report concluded, “and we believe a delay beyond that time is possible.”

Yet what you quote proves my point, that yes, one of the reasons S & P (and the rest of the financial world, including our Wall Street which has warned the GOP about not effing with this for political reasons) isn't happy is our lack of serious responsibility-taking about the debt ;)

What did you think of Tim Geithner's letter he sent to Reid in January of this year? (the link is in the Ezra Klein excerpt I posted). We would have to raise the debt ceiling to avoid default even if we never accrued one more penny of charged debt.

joeydb 04-19-2011 09:49 PM

I would vote against this in Congress, and try to get many others to do the same. Rubber stamping debt increases is not going to provide any incentive for the necessary slashing of spending.

If the "Day of Reckoning" comes sooner, so be it. For in order to end this debt crisis gracefully, there will have to be a severe and steady deceleration of spending.

To keep raising the debt ceiling until the creditors (a.k.a. China et al.) cut us off is not an answer.

Riot 04-19-2011 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 770231)
I would vote against this in Congress, and try to get many others to do the same. Rubber stamping debt increases is not going to provide any incentive for the necessary slashing of spending.

If the "Day of Reckoning" comes sooner, so be it. For in order to end this debt crisis gracefully, there will have to be a severe and steady deceleration of spending.

To keep raising the debt ceiling until the creditors (a.k.a. China et al.) cut us off is not an answer.

So you're entirely okay with the United States defaulting on our debt, and pushing the world into a worldwide recession? And living with the poverty and increased interest rates for everyone (by marked percentage points) for the next two decades at least, if not permanently? The permanent change of life as we know it in the United States? The US becoming no longer a leading first world country?

That's crazy and irresponsible. That is exactly what will happen if we never borrow one more penny, but fail to raise the debt ceiling.

Seriously, Joey - what did you think of Geithner's January letter? That's it's a lie?

You wanna know what we would have to "slash" for the remainder of this year and next in order to not increase the debt ceiling? $754 billion. That's physically impossible.

Hey, you guys can continue to argue that position. I'm out. It's a batshiat crazy position.

geeker2 04-19-2011 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 770227)
Yet what you quote proves my point, that yes, one of the reasons S & P (and the rest of the financial world, including our Wall Street which has warned the GOP about not effing with this for political reasons) isn't happy is our lack of serious responsibility-taking about the debt ;)

What did you think of Tim Geithner's letter he sent to Reid in January of this year? (the link is in the Ezra Klein excerpt I posted). We would have to raise the debt ceiling to avoid default even if we never accrued one more penny of charged debt.

Yeah like I would believe what Geithner says - he's a political tool.

joeydb 04-19-2011 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 770236)
So you're entirely okay with the United States defaulting on our debt, and pushing the world into a worldwide recession? And living with the poverty and increased interest rates for everyone (by marked percentage points) for the next two decades at least, if not permanently? The permanent change of life as we know it in the United States? The US becoming no longer a leading first world country?

That's crazy and irresponsible. That is exactly what will happen if we never borrow one more penny, but fail to raise the debt ceiling.

Seriously, Joey - what did you think of Geithner's January letter? That's it's a lie?

You wanna know what we would have to "slash" for the remainder of this year and next in order to not increase the debt ceiling? $754 billion. That's physically impossible.

Hey, you guys can continue to argue that position. I'm out. It's a batshiat crazy position.

Every time the debt ceiling vote comes up, it is raised. EVERY time. That's batshiat crazy. And, if we go Riot's way, and many agree with her,it's a "must" to keep borrowing more...when we can't afford the debt we already have.

The crazy and irresponsible behavior has already occurred: the accumulation of this debt in the first place.

Every other effect you list: poverty, decline in world position for our country, standard of living changes, will certainly occur when we cannot borrow one more penny from a creditor. That day is rapidly approaching. By choosing to limit our own borrowing - as late in the game as it is - give us a chance to recover.

Automatically raising the debt ceiling - which is what will occur every time so long as we are driven by fear - will not let us change course at all until we default - for real - permanently, and every effect you list will be even more severe.

joeydb 04-19-2011 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 770236)

You wanna know what we would have to "slash" for the remainder of this year and next in order to not increase the debt ceiling? $754 billion. That's physically impossible.

Why? If they can borrow and spend $862 billion as part of a "stimulus", why can't we cut an amount less than that?

lord007 04-19-2011 11:40 PM

How About Stop Spending Period??????

lord007 04-19-2011 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2 (Post 770237)
Yeah like I would believe what Geithner says - he's a political tool.

Did he pay his taxes this year??

joeydb 04-20-2011 07:57 AM

I was thinking more along the lines of a straight up-or-down vote, but it also appears that a filibuster is a possibility:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011...-ceiling-vote/

geeker2 04-20-2011 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lord007 (Post 770248)
Did he pay his taxes this year??

:tro:

joeydb 04-20-2011 08:52 AM

That "winner" trophy icon never shows up on my browser(s). Can we get that fixed or substitute a picture of Charlie Sheen or something?

geeker2 04-20-2011 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 770282)
That "winner" trophy icon never shows up on my browser(s). Can we get that fixed or substitute a picture of Charlie Sheen or something?

:p
:tro:

Antitrust32 04-20-2011 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 770241)
Why? If they can borrow and spend $862 billion as part of a "stimulus", why can't we cut an amount less than that?

Thats what I was thinking.

we need to slash everything by 25% across the board. Starting with military.

joeydb 05-16-2011 01:44 PM

Still would vote no, and will call congressman and senators to try to persuade them.

Spend more? The answer is "NO!" Enough.

Riot 05-16-2011 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 776709)
Still would vote no, and will call congressman and senators to try to persuade them.

Spend more? The answer is "NO!" Enough.

I wish you could understand the basic concept that the debt ceiling being raised has nothing at all to do with increasing our spending.

joeydb 05-16-2011 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 776710)
I wish you could understand the basic concept that the debt ceiling being raised has nothing at all to do with increasing our spending.

Well it SHOULD, should it not? Why are we spending more than we take in, ever, let alone for many, many years?

Riot 05-16-2011 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 776712)
Well it SHOULD, should it not? Why are we spending more than we take in, ever, let alone for many, many years?

That has nothing to do with our debt ceiling, though. That's budgeting. And budget trouble started back in 2000, Joey. Yes, not from scratch, but we did some very major things to screw ourselves during the 2000's. There is no denying that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_ceiling#Debt_ceiling

Look: if you are paying compounding interest rates of X on your car, house and credit cards, saying you no longer can afford to pay X, you want to pay X - 3, doesn't make those interest rates drop or go away.

You can say you refuse to pay that accumulating, compounding interest any more, but saying that doesn't make it go away, and defaulting on it is a financial disaster. There is also the component of the debt ceiling that goes to our cash flow.

joeydb 05-16-2011 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot (Post 776717)
That has nothing to do with our debt ceiling, though. That's budgeting. And budget trouble started back in 2000, Joey. Yes, not from scratch, but we did some very major things to screw ourselves during the 2000's. There is no denying that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_ceiling#Debt_ceiling

Look: if you are paying compounding interest rates of X on your car, house and credit cards, saying you no longer can afford to pay X, you want to pay X - 3, doesn't make those interest rates drop or go away.

You can say you refuse to pay that accumulating, compounding interest any more, but saying that doesn't make it go away, and defaulting on it is a financial disaster. There is also the component of the debt ceiling that goes to our cash flow.

The way to pay X-3 in your example is to not take on any more debt, by slashing other spending until you are below what you take in. Then you have extra money not to spend but to pay down that debt with. You might then be in a position to negotiate a lower interest rate over a longer period of time. But at least at that point you have a workable plan with which to retire the debt.

The congress is doing neither. They are not cutting spending, and they always hit a deficit level of spending almost every year.

If you live above your means today, you will have to live below your means in the future to make up for it. That's just math.

So, let's bite bullet and slash the spending with a chainsaw, and pay down the debt. That means no debt ceiling raises. In fact, once we start paying down the debt I want a debt ceiling contraction.


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