The 3-year-old males
 

The crop looked very solid coming in - and every week for about the last two months there's a nice new prospect coming along.

Runflatout and Cal Nation are too far behind to do anything in the triple crown series ... but some memorable racing will come from this division if runners keep coming and enough of them hold up.

Curlin debuted around this time

And they should do the exact same thing with Cal Nation, that is sending him to Arkansas. The 3YOs in Arkansas are not a deep group at all and he would become an instant contender in the Rebel next month.

Curlin - he most certainly isn't.

Who is the new prospect your most excited about? Now and long term.

A lot of them are dubious in that they will probably be sprinter/milers and aren't good bets to develop.

The Factor and Runflatout both ran extremely fast at Barretts at age 2 ... the latter is Sadler and by a sire who is a son of A. P. Indy so there could be a whole lot of horse there. He'll get that one to route.

I like Flatter, but how many of them route? Apart and who else? Mostly he sires sprinters - also, Runflatout's dam is by Grand Slam, I believe, which hardly inspires confidence that he will route. The Factor probably is a sprinter/miler

I think Cook Inlet will be OK. He scratched on Thursday, not sure why. Hopefully he is doing alright. The Runflatout race will turn out to be a good race IMO. The Baffert wins next time out and a few of the also rans are going to be OK.

I like several that are now comming to the front but remember the monster they are chasing. Mos next will be interesting, Does he continue to improve? If he does all are far behind. We always anoint one as the horse but he deserves it.

Winstar had a half a dozen that all got hurt last year any chance they keep one friggin decent horse on the track the entire year?

Not even just Uncle Mo - all the newbies are getting the attention, to the point where the better horses from last year are getting completely overlooked, as if it's not possible that last year's 2 year olds have improved and are also very talented. Out of sight, out of mind?

not sure why there's surprise that new horses are getting mentioned. it happens every spring, with media and fans jumping from horse to horse, from week to week. besides, many top horses from last year will be caught and passed by their peers. always fun to watch it all unfold.

No surprise and this year it really is a promising crop, with newbies seemingly popping up every day, but until we see that an Uncle Mo or To Honor and Serve or even a Boys at Toscanova haven't improved, isn't it premature to talk about them being surpassed (not that you are saying it, but it's being implied in some corners)? Some of these newcomers being mentioned have beaten up on bad fields and may never (or they may) pass the class test.

why wouldn't some imply it? isn't boys at toscanova out of training right now? or am i confusing him with someone else? as for the others, until they debut, they're a mystery. two year old form doesn't mean a whole lot now. it's a brand new season.

I know that, but who's to say that these newcomers are going to be any good given that some of them have beaten mediocre allowance fields or straight maidens? I just think it's premature to have some of these newbies leapfrogging some horses that have at least proven their class. For me, until the horses from last year prove they haven't progressed, they shouldn't lose their spots on Derby lists to horses that are also unproven in some way.

a horse that hasn't run in months doesn't necessarily deserve to remain on any list either. this is very much a sport of what have you done lately. i for one would prefer more attention be placed on runners; anyone can claim to have talent in the barn. was shaking my head while reading the other day about horses with two planned starts before the derby. that's pathetic.
i wish they'd change the earnings system to get in the derby. remove 2 yo graded earnings from consideration, that would bring out the runners!

I respect your opinion, but I can not agree with replacing some of the very top 2 year olds from last year with allowance/maiden winners from this year...

As to the 2 starts, well those are the plans for Uncle Mo and THAS. I can't speak for Uncle Mo, but I trust Bill Mott to know what's best for his horse. Its' not like he won't run the horse this year, unlike Godolphin, who keeps their horses in the barn half the year and plans campaigns that last maybe 3 starts.

who said anything about replacing? lol you put too much stock in derby lists and rankings. especially at this point in the year. i'm talking about the coverage of these horses in general.

as for mott, he only plans on two starts because he's got the money. i don't buy that it's best for the horse. best for the horse to have a minimum two losses i guess.
i don't think it's best for the sport either. but it seems all the top trainers with the best of the best stock are stuck in this mindset. has nothing to do with training, ability, etc. has to do with protecting the supposed monetary value of a horse, and not wanting to risk a loss.
makes me wonder why it's still called horse 'racing'. i think it stinks, which is no slur on bill mott-but a huge indictment of this sport, which is slowly committing suicide.

I think it's more like trainers are afraid of being past their peak by the time the Derby comes around - I can't blame them for that. I agree in general that horses need to race more, but I don't have a problem with 2 preps for the Derby. There's more to racing than the Derby or the Triple Crown. In terms of THAS, he's clearly going to run as a 4 year old so he won't be retiring anytime soon due to anything other than illness or injury. How would you prefer his schedule to have gone? Run in the Holy Bull, FOY and then FLA Derby?

I agree with you as far as THAS. He already has rolled going 9f, and as a 2yr old he has been more then fast enough. Its Motts job to keep him moving forward, and have him ready. Its different with all horses, but a fast horse who already has won going 9f, I have no problem with 2 preps. I got him as the horse to beat, and I cant wait for him to run back.

I've always said that if you don't go into the Derby with the intention of winning it, you shouldn't go at all. If you do go planning on winning it, the next step is obviously the Preakness. The point is, if you aren't preparing your horse for the entire series, you are asking for trouble. How can you expect a horse that's conditioned to run once every 6-8 weeks to be ready to run three times in six weeks? You can't.

As for the hype of the horses, I think it's really a case of people are looking for hope where maybe it's not really there. But this is what the sport has left us with. Horses don't run enough anymore for us to properly evaluate actual talent and ability against other top horses so all we can do is watch a good horse beat mediocres and pin our hopes on them as future stars. I think back to my first year as a fan, 1986. We had Java Gold, Polish Navy, Gulch, Capote, Bet Twice, Talinum, Temperate Sil, Demons Begone, Qualify, Alysheba...the list goes on.....and they were competing against each other regularly as 2yos and on the TC trail as 3yos. We KNEW who the top horses were. Yearly, that was the case. It wasn't like now where it's mostly speculating and guessing.

Yep, there isn't just one way of doing things; what works for one horse won't work for another. I'm sure Mott badly wants to win a Derby, but if he doesn't think running THAS (for instance) more than 2x before hitting KY is the right thing, then I have to believe he's right. I don't think that this horse will lose the Derby because he's not fit enough.

I understand hope and I don't mean to imply that the horses we've seen recently are not talented or are not capable of being among the best in their crop.......We'll see them run against their more proven counterparts soon enough. The fact is, though, after the TC, you're right they don't run enough anymore - against each other especially. 1986- what a fantastic crop of horses. Gulch was the first horse I followed from beginning to end and I was lucky, I think - he was a pretty special horse

My feeling on it is that he won't be fit enough. In years past, he would have been at a big disadvantage conditioning wise. He could be the most talented, like Arazi was, but the margin for error is so small that any advantage you give to the others could be enough to cause a loss. However, he's lucky enough to have come along in this new era of less is more. When all of his main competition will be coming in with the same two, at most three starts, he's then not at a disadvantage anymore. For the most part, it's going to be a competition between a bunch of unfit and undertrained horses bred for 8f and the one that lasts the longest and gets the best trip will win.

I'm more in agreement with you in that I think a horse like Uncle Mo or Boys at Tosconova deserve to stay near the top of the rankings until proven otherwise. Yes, they are out of sight and that opens the door for others to move in but the others haven't done more than the leaders have. I believe that a champ is a champ until beaten. Right now, the Spurs are running away with the best record in the NBA but until they beat the Lakers in the playoffs or someone else does, LA is still the champ.

If all the trainers feel that 2 starts is enough, then maybe it is.........times change. Don't you think that 3 starts is pushing it ? Didn't Northern Dancer's trainer (for some reason, I'm totally blanking, but I know him) say "never squeeze the lemon dry"?

That's right - I just don't think they've done anything wrong to be knocked off their perch, esp. by maiden winners. For all we know, Uncle Mo ,THAS, Boys, etc... will be even better at 3 than they were last year. I wouldn't even put Dialed In above them until I see the others come back ..........and they don't have to win, either.

No, I absolutely don't feel that two starts is enough. I think they should run 6-8 times as 2yos and the Derby should be a fourth start MINIMUM as a 3yo. Times may change but basic principles of conditioning and muscle training remain the same. You have to get your body ready if you are going to ask it to do something. Horses are athletes too and once you reach your peak, you stay in it with activity not inactivity. I think that's why you see a lot of Derby winners come back with really strong Preakness performances in only two weeks, which seems to fly in the face of modern thinking that you need 6-8 weeks to recover from a huge effort. I think that racing is a lot like other sports in that it's a copy-cat game. It worked for one so now everyone wants to do it and then, as I said earlier, they all end up in the same underconditioned boat and then it's no longer a disadvantage to any of them. I bet if a horse ran five preps this year and then won the Derby, next year, you'd see more with three or four as the pendelum would start to swing back again.

how do you reconcile the two? if you think horses should race more, that there's more to racing than the classics, how can you then defend someone not racing because they only have the derby in their sights?
besides, you've got rht agreeing with you. that ought to tell you you're on the wrong track.

seems like this discussion rolls around every year. horses who haven't race at three are on peoples radar as being the ones to beat, when they've yet to show a thing as a 3 yo. newcomers are dismissed, and fairly often they're the ones to watch.

I have never dismissed a newcomer and in general they never seem dismissed to me. Dunkirk and Curlin come to mind.

And Big Brown, Bernardini, Smarty Jones, Flower Alley, Summer Bird, Rock Hard Ten, Eskendereya.....

The newcomers aren't dismissed but not all of us forget about the reigning leaders just because they haven't raced recently. The returning leaders have to prove they still belong; the newcomers have to prove they belong. Both groups have something to prove but if I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to anyone, it's gonna be to the ones that have at least showed it in top company before.

2 on your list were not new comers.

Which two?

Big Brown was on a lot of peoples radar. He ran off to a huge turf win at Saratoga at 2. Eskendereya won an off the turf race for fun at 2 and proved he was really a dirt horse. I bet him in the BC Juvy and if that race was on dirt I am sure he would have made some noise. Im pretty sure Smarty ran at 2.

Yes, they all ran as 2yos. I didn't think any of them were on the on the radar as far as being serious TC candidates through the first month of their sophomore seasons though. Nowhere near the top of most lists so that's what I consider a newcomer.

Eskendereya was in Joey S December top 5.
Good points on everyone else.

Smarty Jones was my second favorite (behind Lion Heart) after the Count Fleet in early January. But just because I had him, I still know that he wasn't on most people's lists.

so? i didn't know you were in the media. my point was that we have no top two year olds to discuss right now at 3, since they're all still in the barn; that any horse who runs a good race at any time leading up to may will be in the discussion because a horse can emerge as a contender at any time; that at this point, who won the bcj doesn't mean a whole lot, as it's a whole new year.

That's a good point about the Preakness - can't argue with you there. Well, neither of the consensus top two (top 3 ) horses - Mo, THAS and BOYS ran that much, but then the first two didn't even debut until Saratoga. I can't say that 6-8 starts as a baby is right when for me a lot depends on pedigree. Racing and other sports definitely tend towards copy-catting - not necessarily a good thing as I still see horses as individuals and what works for one won't necessarily work for another. I guess if I think about it, 2 starts to go a grueling 1 1/14 (with all the banging around that goes on) doesn't really toughen a horse. I'm sort of torn on this.

But I don't think these horses have only the Derby in their sights - at least, that wasn't what I meant to say. I meant that there is more to racing than the TC and horses should be running more. Instead, racing is a means to an an end: the breeding shed. I mean, was there any reason to retire Bernardini? He's just one example - there are tons of others. It's frustrating - it would be like a great baseball player retiring at, say, 26 - before he even hits his prime.

I'm not trying to dismiss the newcomers - every horse at one point was a newcomer - but they have as much to prove (if not more) than the 2 year olds from last year who haven't run. I think they all have things to prove, but my general theory is that of King Glorious - until those promisng babies from last year show they can't do it, then the newcomers will have to show they can (winning a maiden race or an allowance against bad fields doesn't necessarily tell me anything). Any talented maiden victor could turn into a Curlin or a Bernardini, but they might not.

As to RHT and I agreeing, well maybe I'm naive and I'm putting too much trust in Bill Mott; I genuinely have a lot of faith in the horse. There are many reasons why a horse loses the Derby; is there a recent example of a horse that looked to be the best, but lost because he got exhausted down the lane due to insufficient racing (as opposed to tripping on his pedigree)? Live Oak adores THAS, but they also want this horse to be tested, so my guess is that they would be fine with a fairly strenuous FOY. For a very talented horse that's had it fairly easy, this might be enough for him (as opposed to, say, 3 races) prior to the Derby. Maybe an untested horse just needs to be looked in the eye or asked to do things he's not been asked to do before - and maybe if that happens in a race, you don't need more than 2 races to be successful.