Scat Daddy or Circular Quay?
 

In your opinion, which Pletcher baby is better and will win the Hopeful? (if you think Pletcher will win the race, which appears most likely)

I think Scat Daddy is a better horse and will assert himself Monday as the early deserving favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile....You could tell he was special while watching him train at Churchill Downs the two weeks before the Derby with all of Pletcher's first string.

His dam side suggests he'll at least get the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (although I'm not sure the Derby distance will suit him at three being that he is a Johanessburg...may be more of a miler type, we'll see...)

He is the goods though....

I've been in CQ's corner since watching his maiden score. Scat Daddy is nice, but I've been more impressed with CQ's races.. I'll take him.

I dont know Joel. After watching replays, i think CQ is the better horse. Just seems to have a nicer action. Why do you like SD better?

I like Circular Quay also. He looked pretty good at Churchill that day he won the minor stake.

Is Lukas putting his FuPeg in there? I never saw another run from it since the day that CQ won and ran against him.

It may be neither if the Lukas horse runs his race. I've seen em all train, and Lukas is training as good or better than anyone. Circular Quay is training real well in his last two works, only had one subpar breeze.

yeah, pegasus wind is supposed to run. this is the highest i've seen lukas on a horse in a while....this will be his third start i think.

God help me with the genetics crapola. Just watch the horses RUN and report. Thats the goods.

Actually, I thought Circular Quay's action was very subpar...he is a nice horse and I think he'll definately go longer, but he is pretty hard on himself with his high action and is not the most efficient mover....watch him Monday...he kicks those front legs up pretty high.....

Scat Daddy has a beautiful long stride and is just a better looking horse period...I think his upside is much greater...I think the horse won on pure ability last out when most two-year-olds would have packed it in with the inside, green journey while taking dirt that is not advantageous to juveniles because of their lack of seasoning....

He has that very classy appearance about him...his eye...the way he carries himself...watching how he trains and does his job....I just think he is a good horse...

Pegasus Wind or something like that??...Yeah, he came back and impressively broke his maiden at the Spa last month and I do belive that he is running in Monday's Hopeful....I think he's a nice horse but I'll take Scat Daddy over him...I'm not a huge fan of Pegasus Wind's trainer...just not...but I've seen him train at CD and he is a very talented horse....he could be right there at the wire on Monday...

Anybody can do that...I would rather use my knowledge to forecast...;)

where ya been cunningham?! let me guess, working....

between the two, i think i'd take scat daddy as well....but pegasus wind will be tough. what a dorky name by the way!

I like Pegasus Wind to beat them both.

i like circular quay once they stretch out in the bcj. today i would go with lukas.

Did you think the same about Barbaro's action?

The Lukas horse will go to the lead and make them catch him. How good is speed holding up at the Spa is the real ?

CQ looks just fine with my money on him again. Thanks

Handicapping rule#2 Study long study wrong

Yeah, isn't he broke down? :eek:

are you implying that barbaro's leg action had anything to do with his breakdown?

Scat Daddy is a better horse and will beat him in the Breeders' Cup...maye not the Champagne, but in the Breeders' Cup when they stretchout around two turns and the real test in on the line....another horrid trip by Scat Daddy in the Hopeful that cost him, plus I think Circular Quay is looking more ad more like a one-turn closer specialist...we'll see, but my gut says he won't be as affective going two-turns for several reasons (and yes, I'm aware that he is a Thunder Gulch....)

Johhny V. needs to be arrested for the multiple bad rides he's already put on this talented colt....unreal in a 5-horse field....Oh yeah, he stumbled BADLY at the start ad had to be used three or so times in the race to the far turn if anybody noticed...he is the best of this generation...you can't win 'em all...thats horse racing...bad luck plays a factor..

This comment comes from someone purporting to be a knowledgeable analyst?

No, just also acknowledging that nobody knows if it did or didn't....;) ...Bottomline is: Horses with bad action that are fast rarely adds up to a formula of health success throughout a career...both Barbaro's and Circular Quay's biomechanics are such that cause a lot of unnessecary stress to the legs...it is pure physics and fact....

it is hard to say Scat Daddy is a better horse. i agree that the race set up for circular quay but he ran an impressive race. i like circular quay more as they stretch out too but it is way too premature to say any of these horses will win the bcj. if i had to guess i would think a horse that was not even entered today would win.

Anybody can make wild guesses based on the third cousin on the sire's side also. I would rather read about how you guys think the horses move. What you like about the stride. What you think about the horses attitude. That is not easy. Some horses have very efficient strides that look awful. Some horses have great looking strides that wear them out.

We dont forecast hurricanes by planting a ship 50 miles off shore and having them report back saying, "Hey guys, the weather is getting rough out here". Thats the level of accuracy with horse genetics. We got satellites for weather and computers. We dont have this kind of technology yet for horses, so stop it with the witchcraft (apologies to the Wiccans).

i thought it was barbaros front leg action that was mentioned....and he had a bad step with his back leg. or am i missing something? is bad action up front a cause for alarm regarding the hind legs? would it be that the horse is 'leaping' somewhat?

or is the fact that barbaro took a bad step just coincidental to him having high action up front?

Yes, because as I mentioned last week in the Bluegrass Cat thread when he broke down was that if someting is ailing a horse up front, they will always acknowledge the pain ad take care of themselves by over-compensating and transferring all of their wait to the rear end - which makes for a very stressful situation on the rear legs whe running 40 MPH with a man on your back....

Many very sharp horsemen whos opinion I value have told me that when a horse that has fair to good comformation breaks down - it is usually a result of him doing so because something else was bothering him that forced the over-compensation of weight shift to the "good" legs....think about it...it really makes a world of sense...

Bluegrass Cat ran the other day with front wraps for the first time and he wound up coming out of the race with a broken rear leg.....not saying that it is a coindicence but it at least begs the question....

Same with Barbaro...he was a huge, heavy animal who was very fast and had just breezed 46 flat at CD ad then ran lights out fast in the grueling Derby...now, he is preparing for the Preakness two-weeks later and he is restless in the gate - maybe because something was stinging him and he knew what was about to happen (horses aren't dumb when it comes to taking care of themselves) - ad when he broke he over compensated for the concussion on the front end and put too much stress on the rear end with his 1,300-pound frame trying to get into gear...then, snap.....Remember, he has VERY high action like a turf horse due to his pedigree and when he hits the ground he did slap it pretty darn hard for a horse of his size....on top of that, he ran over the God-awful Gulfstream Park track twice before the Derby that broke SEVERAL of horses down and is reknowned for it's horrificly hard training surface by many top horseman.....Was there really another cause for why Matz chose to sit Barabaro out for that long layoff coming up to the Derby???

....Food for thought....

AND NO, I do not think there was a conspiracy with Barabro's health!!!

...Let me make that very clear...I'm simply pointing out a series of events that are factual that could not have been a coincidence....

Remember, no matter how good of a horseman you are, very few of them actually catch something wrong with there horses from a health standpoint when it first occurs...it is too damn tough ad anybody out there that understands the area of which I' talking about knows what I'm talking about....Look at Lost in the Fog for example...hell, he could have and probably did have tumors growing in him whe he ran in the Breeders' Cup last year......ad he defiantely had them when he won at Churchill Downs earlier this year in impressive fashion...

The bottomline is that horses are fragile ad can go bad at any minute...their bodies are set up to FAIL for what we put them through in this game...ad last of all, no matter how good a horseman is, many still don't discover whe their horses are hurting until something else happens down the line....pure factad any smart track vet will tell you the same....

Now thats the stuff Cunningham.

I admitted I was wrong...the part you missed is that I said that Scat will beat CQ in the BC Juvenile....I even admitted that CQ would probably have the upper hand on Scat in teh Champagne next out...Can you read?

Another thing, yes - I have the balls to put myself out there on many occasions because I am that comfortabel ad confident in my abillity to evalute this industry....You also noticed that I use my own name ad don't hide behind a phony screen name and sit back bashing people while never revealing my true identity, because I'm not a coward...this world has too many of them - and frankly, this industry REALLY has a lot of weazles....

So, do you want people posting on here that are "Yes" people giving out post-race analysis and Captain Obvious repsponses?...Or do uyou want soemnody posting bold and predictive opinions ad poeple who aren't afraid to put their names behind thsoe predictions?...Ask that to yourself, DaHoss - which I guarantee is not the name your mother gave you....

Sure, I'll take my licks when I'm wrong, and believe me, racetrackers NEVER not let you know when you're wrong (like you did) - but the funnier thing is that they also never acknwoledge when you are right either - which is fine by me.....Remember, I believe I've called alot more things right o this thread than wrong...

Read my edited post above yours, DaHoss...BTW, is your last name Pital, as in DaHoss Pital :D

Who cares who won? They were an entry. If you bet either you won. The exacta was free money. I liked the horse who finished third but still had the exacta. Right now that is my only winning ticket all day. Thank God for Belmont. Saratoga is impossible.

Yeah Nostr...thought the same thing...the EX was a much-needed gift at $9.30...me likey a lot! :D

Even tho I liked CQ lots coming into this and even though I still think he's the best 2 yo on the east coast, it's tough to get overly excited about any winner of a five horse race. Very small fields always make me downgrade performances. Hopefully the Champagne will have a larger field.

I think that's a really good point. Both of these horses look great, but it seems a little early to call either of them the BCJ winner.

Although I'd go with CQ if I had to pick. :p

this is bluntly false...

A) racetrackers kick you when you are wrong and run the other way when you are right...you need to first learn that about the game...

B) I acknowledge Circular Quay's perofromance as a good one adn one that couldn't be taken away from him....the length of the story that is sooooo long for you that you hate to read clearly give precise and detailed analysis on why i thought Circular Quay beat Scat Daddy this time - and I even mention that I thought that CQ may beat him again in the Champagne...but I like SD going long in the BC Juvy...that is why I write long pieces - to fully explain ad give analysis on my point of view to make my points clear...I get PM-ed all the time by people who enjoy my long readings...If you don't like the length of them I apologize but I won't shorten them becaues others like the detail of my thoughts...:)

And I like the fact that somebody will at least make a bold prediction on this thread...I respect that....Yes-men with gutless predictions and post-race analysis are for another game...maybe like ballet?...:rolleyes:

BE BOLD PEOPLE...Yes, racetrackers are negative people by nature and will always bash you when you are wrong, but who cares? I found it as a great way to learn the game and learn humility at the same time....:D

The people I hate the worst are the guys (and you know who you are) who jump on horses bandwagons AFTER they accomplish something, ad then claim that all along they knew the horse was great.....you know what I mean?...People that put themselves out there at least aren't looked at as frauds. IMO...have fun, make predictions!