Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?
 

No. Not off one American race. All Along won three times in NA in '83, all races coming after the Arc.

Horses with a chance with a Classic win....QR, Blame, and Lucky. Paddy and Haynesfield might get some votes but I can't see them winning. .

I don't know about you guys, but if all the faves in the BCC bomb, and Uncle Mo shatters a world record in the juvie, my vote would go to him!

What if Mr Andy only gives him a 102?

workforce could potentially win the top turf award if he wins big on bc day...but hoy? no way. obviously if blame or quality road wins the classic, they get HOY. they've both had very good campaigns all year, better than any other horse out there. also, lookin at lucky could get the award should he win.

Not that either scenario is likely to happen but if the logical contenders don't show up in the Classic wouldn't Blind Luck have to get the award before Uncle Mo?

Paul

I am very much against Euro shippers winning North American championships off of one race on the continent. Horse racing is NOT like baseball or pro football or basketball, which have tournaments to determine the best team. Horse racing is more like NASCAR or golf; some events are bigger and more prestigious than others but if one of them is won by a longshot, he doesn't automatically become the overall champion. It's what happens over the entire season that matters.

If we are saying a chance, Paddy and Haynesfield would likely win it, if they win the Classic.

well, since there are no rules, voters can do what they wish. and most voters probably don't see a turf race other than the bc turf, so there you go. it worked for high chaparral, and could certainly work for workforce.

I don't put a lot of credence to BSF's when used to evaluate the better horses. It seems pretty subjective, some of the time.

However, if Mo shatters a world record as a 2yo for a route distance, it's safe to say he'll get a pretty high number.

Blind Luck has lost some races she shouldn't have, has squeaked out others over pretty weak rivals, while Mo would have been undefeated with a world record performance!

A slight overstatement. I hope.

Plus Blind Luck would still have to win her race over a really soft group. Ill likely bet Evening Jewel if she goes in that spot.

For what its worth, I think Workforce is a toss on primary tickets in the Turf. Intent is so important in the BC, and the race was a pure afterthought for these guys. He'll take a ton of money...I prefer a horse like Tazeez over Workforce.

Again, this is a purely academic exercise as neither has a realistic shot to win the title. That said, Uncle Mo, even with a huge win, would have made only three starts on the year. Blind Luck has gone everywhere, danced every dance (even those requiring multiple trips over the rockies) and has won lots of big races. In fact, with a win in the Distaff, Blind Luck will have more grade one wins than Uncle Mo has starts.

The fact that she has lost sonme races is actually a positive in my thinking. It just proves that she had the most ambitious schedule. She entered every big race. She faced every big name in her division. She always ran her race (even in defeat).

If more horses were campaigned like Blind Luck was this year, we would have a much better sport.

Paul

I'm just surprised anyone would take me seriously about Uncle Mo winning HOY.

I'll never stop being amazed that some people actually seem to believe that any speed figure maker ( for most of the ill-informed they use Beyer as the whipping boy for there ignorance ) is somehow responsible for how fast a horse runs.

Horses earn their figures. Good speed figure makers just accurately assess them. The confused just keep on misconstruing this.

Whoever the winner of the BC Classic is probably wins it, unless it really is an outsider. If it's a true bomb like Fly Down, they'll likely give it to Zenyatta to appease the public sentiment.

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

That's all fine and dandy, but there are plenty of instances of figure makers fudging their numbers when something doesn't seem logical to them.

This typically happens with races with unusually fast times/figs.

Or at least that's when it's most noticeable, I guess.

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

I would rather believe a respectable figure maker's numbers than the ill-informed opinion of someone on the internet. That's not to say that it isn't possible to have an intelligent discussion on numbers.....but it's damn near impossible on the net. The majority of those opinions are hardly credible.

I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc.

It's not a jinx. . . it's a logically explainable phenomenon.

How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances.

I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though.

I believe the shipping to a warm weather location had more to do with it than simply running in the Arc.

So never toss the Arc winner just because? What is your opinion on Workforce?

I like to take things on a case by case basis.

As for me agreeing that Workforce will be an underlay....feels to me like he may be an overlay. Depending on the conditions, and the final field, he probably should be a pretty big favorite. On the other hand, I'll wait to see the pps. I also need to watch the Arc again and see just how tough the 4th finisher's trip really was, assuming he's coming.

To be, it's all a matter of intent. If the BC is an afterthought in a campaign, a "maybe we will, maybe we won't, we'll see how he's doing......" - I'm just not as interested. Horses who have been pointed to these races and prepped with these races in mind earn much more of my attention, and money, on BC day. Red Desire is one of them this year.

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.

She was an obvious play against last time on that course, but I agree that she's interesting now w/ that slightly more darkened form.

Her and Plumania seem like the ones to take down Midday.

Anywhere to get pp's yet? I have never heard of Plumania.

I also thought about the timing. It's interesting that when Trempolio was second in 1987, the BC was around November 21 or 7 weeks after the Arc.

Another thing is that I probably won't be overly worried with trying to handicap the Turf, in the sense that I will just try to stay alive through the race in order to get live to a few horses not named Zenyatta in the Classic in the Pick-4. Therefore, I'm not going to let Workforce beat me, though I am sure I will use others.

Ya I hear you there. I'll use him in the Pk4 depending on the prices I like in the other legs. I'll probably play against him in-race, though.

Wednesday. . . or go to Racing Post and use the "search" function for some more info on her (their website is excellent).

Thanks.

There is another website that links you to most, if not all, of the race replays too. I'll send it to you when I get home.

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

You and I might be the only 2.

He's going to be a pretty big favorite.