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Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?
Besides obviously Zenyatta which horse or horses can win it with a BC win? Does Workforce have an outside chance with a Turf win if an outsider wins the Classic?
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Horses with a chance with a Classic win....QR, Blame, and Lucky. Paddy and Haynesfield might get some votes but I can't see them winning. . |
I don't know about you guys, but if all the faves in the BCC bomb, and Uncle Mo shatters a world record in the juvie, my vote would go to him!
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workforce could potentially win the top turf award if he wins big on bc day...but hoy? no way. obviously if blame or quality road wins the classic, they get HOY. they've both had very good campaigns all year, better than any other horse out there. also, lookin at lucky could get the award should he win.
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Paul |
I am very much against Euro shippers winning North American championships off of one race on the continent. Horse racing is NOT like baseball or pro football or basketball, which have tournaments to determine the best team. Horse racing is more like NASCAR or golf; some events are bigger and more prestigious than others but if one of them is won by a longshot, he doesn't automatically become the overall champion. It's what happens over the entire season that matters.
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However, if Mo shatters a world record as a 2yo for a route distance, it's safe to say he'll get a pretty high number. |
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The fact that she has lost sonme races is actually a positive in my thinking. It just proves that she had the most ambitious schedule. She entered every big race. She faced every big name in her division. She always ran her race (even in defeat). If more horses were campaigned like Blind Luck was this year, we would have a much better sport. Paul |
I'm just surprised anyone would take me seriously about Uncle Mo winning HOY.
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I'll never stop being amazed that some people actually seem to believe that any speed figure maker ( for most of the ill-informed they use Beyer as the whipping boy for there ignorance ) is somehow responsible for how fast a horse runs.
Horses earn their figures. Good speed figure makers just accurately assess them. The confused just keep on misconstruing this. |
Whoever the winner of the BC Classic is probably wins it, unless it really is an outsider. If it's a true bomb like Fly Down, they'll likely give it to Zenyatta to appease the public sentiment.
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This typically happens with races with unusually fast times/figs. Or at least that's when it's most noticeable, I guess. |
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Trempolino had Theatrical. Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways. Etc. Etc. |
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I do agree with you on the supposed " Arc jinx. " Just more easily explainable hooey. Trempolino lost by a head or neck to Theatrical. Dancing Brave lost 150 pounds shipping. As you said....etc, etc. |
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How does Dancing Brave (before my time, so I don't know the whole story) losing 150 pounds not support the angle? It directly supports the notion that horses come out of the Arc at less than their best and are bet off of their peak performances. I'm sure you'd agree that Workforce will be an underlay. He's just not the type of Euro that you would ever want here in the states. I'm not sure what to do with the fact that he's more lightly raced than most, though. |
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So never toss the Arc winner just because? What is your opinion on Workforce? |
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As for me agreeing that Workforce will be an underlay....feels to me like he may be an overlay. Depending on the conditions, and the final field, he probably should be a pretty big favorite. On the other hand, I'll wait to see the pps. I also need to watch the Arc again and see just how tough the 4th finisher's trip really was, assuming he's coming. |
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For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound. Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers. |
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Her and Plumania seem like the ones to take down Midday. |
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Anywhere to get pp's yet? I have never heard of Plumania. |
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That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout. |
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