Some preliminary BC thoughts
 

My friend printed out the special that Thorograph put on sale yesterday and I was able to take a look at them at the OTB today. Quick couple of things that caught my eye

1) Sidney's Candy's race was not that impressive number wise. He is slow and won't get it done

2) Courgeous Cat's last was a prep in my mind, almost the very same situation as last year, he is a great use on BC Day, it looks very 'mad scientist' of Mott, don't know if he can win, but he should be very long price and could run as well as he did last year.

3) I have never seen two year old colts as fast as Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova. It is scary and not only that, but if they develop the way they are suppose to (from 2 year olds to 3 or even 4), they will break barriers, chances are they are close to their peak though

4) How scary is Girolamo. Look at last years pattern and compare it to this year; same pattern, only faster. He could be a very strong play

5) Lastly, in terms of Zenyatta, she is slow in comparsion to others. My heart wants her to romp but I will probably do what I did last year and leave her off, hindsight is I probably f'd up last year not using her as she was at home and had competitive numbers. I just don't see her beating Blame or Lookin at Lucky on this track with the trips they are probably gonna get.

I wonder what Sidneys Candy's number would have been if the race had been stopped after a mile.

At the risk of creating a frenzy.....plenty of very fast 2YOs have gone on to be even faster 3YOs. If these horses are for real then they will move forward. These are hardly the fastest 2YOs evah.

:tro:

how can you possibly tell anything about the two year olds until they go two turns? plus those races are the worst betting events on the BC card...usually. uncle mo 8-5.......boys....9-5.. i'm giving them those odds because the money will get split up...when one of them romps at 9 furlongs i'll start thinking they are good. every year its the same thing and the BC winner in this race is almost always a dud ....later. not that one of them might be good....but these numbers are useless for predicting longer distances...i don't see how this tranlates to them being fast at 3 years old and 4 yo...what makes you think they will be racing then? the game does not work that way (very much) anymore 2yo and 3yo are like different careers. with all the good racing those two days these are the races i avoid. heard the same crap about war pass a few years ago,,,..the horse could not make the distance in his dreams.... but he was the best 2 yo ever.....lol

Everything is getting faster all the time on Thoro-Graph.

$10,000 claimers at Mountaineer are running fast enough numbers to win Breeders Cup Sprints held ten years ago. The scale is a runaway.

1- I am undecided on.
2- I totally agree.
3- B@T is a toss, UM is 100% horse to beat.
4- Likely single for me at this point.
5- ?? Blame is not much horse, IMO. L@L could freak.

Put me in the Courageous Cat camp also, totally think the last race was prep, made nice 3 wide move into the turn, cuts back to mile, ran 2nd in the race last year.

Courageous Cat is out.

Me plus RHT = way too much weight

Blame is not much horse, but Zenyatta's a champion. You can't make it up.

Link? Or is that you insulting me?

Blame... Defeats a horse who comes out of the race with a career ending injury.... Thats clearly his second biggest win. Beats QR by a nose, running the same speed figure. Then gets destroyed by a decent NY bred.

Zenyatta..Undefeated multiple BC winning champion.
Whats being made up?

Just read the threads on this site.

Blame's beaten better horses. But you knew that already.

The 2 best horses Blame has defeated are QR and Battle Plan, I like both of them. One of them is now in Japan? The other is everyones toss for the BC. DOes not say much, right?

If there's a BET AGAINST in the Classic, it's Blame. He can get a piece but a lot has to go right for him to win.

Blame feels like an underlay to me too. . . They all do except for Lookin At Lucky, who I could not have been more against throughout his career until he won the Haskell.

I totally agree. My entire weekend is going to be pick 3 and 4's and Blame wont be covered on a single ticket, not even for the 50 cent minimum.

I wont single him....but he is a must use....

Respectfully, that's suicide.

Respectfully?

Why?

I like RHT.

I always like the controversial ones.

I like you, don't I? :p

I'm not leaving him off any tickets now. Don't know why.

Out of disrespect?

Yeah. Plus the super horse is crossing the Rockies.

A must use in what sense? He is most likely winner, or you have to cover? I dont think he is a must use at all. I think he is in between his Whitney and JCGC. Not as good, not as bad.... BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO WIN THIS.

Paraiba? I loved her 2? Who is the mush, you or me? It might be YOU, ANDREW. Im just saying, you never know....
Really though, I dont appreciate being insulted because I give an opinion on a race. Its a totally different thing to simply disagree with me.

lol, vacation time

He won the SF over Battle Plan... One could argue that QR, Z, LUCKY ARE ALL TONS BETTER. A horse like Etched and some of the other 3 yr olds are as good.

All the tools like Joey Ice? Come on now, Ravens are easy this year. Admit it.

Are you implying that if you say something to Andy you get darted? I dont think thats the case, Im just trying to talk to Andy.... I look up 2 him.

Just stop. He beat Etched by 15+ lengths in the Clark last year. Now you're gonna start saying Morning Line and First Dude are better. Really, that's dumb even for you.

You're still butt-hurt that he beat your horse on the square at Saratoga and you're reaching.

Im butt-hurt? I recall you being his biggest fan for a year, nice avatar? But never had the balls to put him on top... Talk about butt-hurt, right?

Right, me thinking that QR was going to beat him in the Whitney is surely the issue at hand. Fortunately, I did a s.hitty enough job at the end of the Saratoga meet to be more than $8.80 away from having a positive ROI for the meet. Even if it had been the difference, I stand by the selection I made.

What does me thinking Blame is not as likely as QR, Z or L@L have to do with me being butt-hurt because of the Whitney? What is the real issue at hand? Lets not forget what QR and Blame have done since the Whitney.

This has to do with you thinking that it's necessary to be over the top with your opinion and consider a contrasting one some type of insult. In this thread multiple people have come on and said they don't like Blame, some have said they do, each has been able to convey their message with one simple post and a coherent thought. You, on the other hand, have continued to post the same thing over and over and over and felt it necessary to enhance your argument with hyperbole (click here for a definition of hyperbole).

If I do that, its not intentional.