Who beats Zenyatta if the BC was at SA this year?
 

Obviously there are only 3 relevant preps for the BC Classic when it's on synthetic. They are...

California: The Goodwood
New York: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic
Kentucky: The Kentucky Cup Classic

Anyone with half a brain realizes that the likely "Breeders Cup Classic" winner - if male - is going to either come from out of one of those 3 races or will come from Europe.

Last year, longshot Euro shipper Gitano Hernando upset the Goodwood. Mega longshot Interpretation turned back Gio Ponti to stun the Joe Hirsch. Furthest Land took the 9f Ky Cup Classic over Dubious Miss.

Amazingly, not a single winner of the 3 most important preps showed up in the BC Classic. Gitano Hernando passed to point for Dubai. Interpretation passed for Japan. Furthest Land opted to cut back - and he won the BC Synthetic Dirt Mile at 21/1 next out.

One of the great mystery's of all-time is why the Euro's only sent over 2 horses for the Classic. The 3yo Rip Van Winkle - and the older Twice Over. Rip Van Winkle had major health issues going into the race - and a 9th place Mine That Bird beat him by over 6 lengths. Twice Over ran 3rd despite appearing to struggle a bit with both the surface and the turns.

Considering that the 1-2 finishers for the Santa Anita Handicap this year were Misremembered and Neko Bay.. and both haven't run back since. Considering that Awesome Gem won the Hollywood Gold Cup after getting dusted in stakes at Charles Town and Lone Star in his prior two starts.

I know they haven't run the Pacific Classic yet ... but you can count on some terrible plodding bum from the East Coast winning that race for the 4th year in a row. I honestly have no idea why Shirreffs wanted to duck those three laughable races this year. Rail Trip might be "the highest mountain to climb" .. but his sire was an early sprinter/miler and he's out of a Carson City mare. You need a lot of stamina to stay 10fs on synthetic.

Basically, Zenyatta would be a near cinch to be the top finishing American based horse if the BC Classic was run at SA again this year.

Misremembered would likely be the only horse in this country with any chance, but he has been injured and just now working back, AND Bob is sure he is better on dirt. His Clark was OK.

The Clark sure was some race. Giant Oak was beaten 1.5 lengths and Anak Nakal was beaten 2 lengths.

Rail Trip could potentialy have a shot if she's forced to go 14-wide by Mr. Smith.

Well - I think Zenyatta would probably run a well beaten 4th in the Classic this year if it was on synthetic - but like I said, she'd have no trouble beating the Americans home.

Three different unidentified Euro's would stomp her though.

I know what you are saying about lack of proven synthetic runners, but she is barely beating absolute pigs now. Nobody stepped up last year, but that doesn't make it a cinch nobody would this time around.

Dude you started a thread and I answered, has Blame not validated it?

What is up with this Zenyatta bashing? Its been 2 weeks now. Do you really have nothing better to do up in Erie? Small town like that even a clown like you has to be popular. I know they hate you at PID, but go hang out there bang some ugly chicks, do something with yourself... Register in more contests, apply for TVG, do something.

She's barely beating total pigs because of the way these races are being run.

If you put her in a race like the BC Classic on syn - it's going to be a big field - and it's going to have a lot of pace in it, it's more ground to work with. That suits her a whole lot better than slower paced races at shorter distances.

Not really. He's just made natural progression from age 3 to 4 that's consistant with a healthy horse.

IC... LOL. Blame has just won 2 G1's in a row. Beating EVERYONES, including myself top horse. Misremembered ran HUGE IN THE BIG CAP. He made a big premature move and kept going. For once, your wrong. Blame is undefeated since... Your response is, not really?

Yes, Misremembered ran huge in the Big Cap by holding off Neko Bay and he lost his two prior starts to M One Rifle and Jeranimo.

Another horse who made a natural progression from age 3 to age 4.

Anytime you're involved in a race where Anak Nakal finishes 5th beaten 2 lengths and Giant Oak finishes 4th beaten 1.5 lengths - unless you had an absolute world of trouble - it's no major accomplishment.

OK Doug, then right now, who are the good horses? I want to hear this from the master. I am being serious, in your opinion who is good?

On Turf:

The best are in Europe.

Harbinger's last two races - and especially his most recent one - were out of this world. He bounced in his next workout though and his career is over.

The most impressive turf performance in America this year was Chinchon in the United Nations - and he came into the race off of a 4th place finish in a 5 horse field - and a 6th place finish the race prior - those two starts both in France.

On Synthetic:

Zenyatta and Informed Decision may both have lost a step - but they're still a combined 26-25-0-1 lifetime on synthetic tracks... the lone loss coming by ID when making her first start off of the long layoff, in a Grade 1, without a single published workout on her form.

On Dirt:

Everything is up for grabs. Quality Road has two very good races (Donn and Met) and two very poor races (Hal's Hope and Whitney) - Blame has improved a little bit in each of his 3 solid stakes wins. Not sure where Musket Man's good race came from - but he was best in the Whitney.

Rail Trip can take over the division if he improves on dirt as much as he figures to and if the Dutrow meds take hold. I Want Revenge had no right to run well and didn't in his return - but why isn't he eligible to move forward now? Lookin At Sucky and Concord Point are both off of two pretty nice races and 3yo's this time of year sometimes explode. Omniscent ran as fast as LAL did in his Haskell romp - he could be one of these Asmussen's that start finally getting good 5th, 6th, and 7th off the layoff and just keep marching.

Redding Colliery absolutely destroyed Awesome Gem on dirt last time out - running a 111 Beyer - Kiarian freshened him and he's just worked his 3rd straight bullet.


Devil May Care and Blind Luck are very good 3yo fillies. Majestic Perfection is slightly the best of a few pretty solid sprinters in America - and there's a real good one in Canada in Hollywood Hit.

I told someone last week I thought Redding Colliery could back into HOY... Crazy long shot, but a JCGC and BCC win would do it. I loved his last, and he set a track record earlier in the year. Its taking him a while to get back though, and I wonder if he is right. I think more of Lucky and Concord Point then you do... Baffert knows what he is doing and I think they are both really good 3 yr olds in a bad crop. I would expect them to both do well moving forward and facing elders. I was crazy over QR he needs to CRUSH THE WOODWARD, he needs to win it for fun then we can look at him again. I think I Want Revenge and Rail Trip suck, maybe I Want Revenge can find the right kind of group to beat, but I would give him NO CHANCE AT ALL vs Blame, Quality Road and Redding Colliery. I dont see where Rail Trip gets a win on the NYRA circuit... I cant see him beating QR in the Woodward, and I dont see him beating Blame or RC in the JCGC. The turf horses suck, and I think thats what your saying... Zenyatta IMO has not lost a step and I expect her to run huge in the Classic. I think shes a total lock to at the very least run 1-2-3, and a legit win contender, I know you disagree. Informed Decision has lost a step, and I dont think she can win the Ballerina. I hope Rachel crushed Life At Ten, because I think L@T is decent at best and has been very opportunistic beating bad HORRIBLE FIELDS. The Del Cap SUCKED. Unrivalled Belle is a joke, she beats Rachel and just continues to get popped by Todd's horses. I actually wanted UB to be good, maybe she is and just cought speed favoring tracks, who knows? Blame just keeps getting better and I really dont see who can be competitive in the JCGC unless Redding Colliery is ready and healthy.
I think the sprint division is MajesticPerfections to lose, but Discreetly Mine seems to be getting REALLY GOOD.

I'm now sold on Rail Trip.

Rail Trip is my #1 rated horse in the world with Harbinger out.

The response I have come to expect from you when trying to have a real conversation about actual horses.

No way... only way she loses is trip.

Trust me, all the good synthetic horses are in Europe racing on turf - the same place all of the good turf horses happen to be.

Then why didn't those good synthetic horses show up for the $10 Mil Dubai World Cup? I'm not questioning they fact that good turf horses in Europe wouldn't show up and run well on the Pro-Ride in the classic, but I don't think they would be any better than Zenyatta.

I guess the same question would apply to the 2008 Classic. I presume with this logic, you think she's 3rd merely outfinishing one of your all time favorite Tiago and behind Raven's Pass and Henry?

Gio Ponti and Twice Over were both off the board behind huge longshots in that stupid $10 Dubai race .. and further - they ran like a $6 million turf race and a $5 million turf race or something insane the same day.

Also - the best horses in Europe are typically given the winter off.

Name 3 who would beat her for sure on synthetics, your just saying the best are in Europe... So please just name 3.

Only 3 Euro's showed up for that BC Classic edition .. and the exacta paid $319 with two Euro's running 1st and 2nd.

If it's 7 Euro's VS 7 Americans on synthetic you'd notice their dominance more. Instead, - it's more like 10 American horses VS 2.5 Euro's - and the Euro's have to fly halfway around the world to Santa Anita for the race.

How do you think Conduit would have done if he would have run in the BC Brown Turf instead of the BC Green Turf the last two years?

3 out of any four that come... and she'd be home and they'd have to travel.

didn't Gio run 4th beaten about a length? not like he was up the track...

Didn't our dirt horses win that race in a total laugher almost every single year?

Watching Blind Luck run well against the grain, yet lose some of them where she just can't overcome the setup only makes it all the more apparent how good Z really is. Anyone who appreciates BL can only appreciate Z more --- as she's about the best there is/was running this style.

Do annoying facebook people really make you go from being a Zenyatta fan, to the biggest hater around? Do you watch ESPN Cold Pizza/First n Ten/whatever its called now. You remind me of the D. HATER.

2nd last year and probably 3rd the year before. And all we're talking about is Zenyatta. 1/2 to 2/3's of US horses didn't have a shot to begin with...

and they were up the track on the new stuff... if the argument is Z v. Europeans on the "pro-ride", I'll grant the shipping is an issue, but I don't think there are an infinate number of horses in Europe that could be at Z on Pro-Ride... I realize that St. Trianians was nothing over there, and only was beat a head, etc...

Do we need to account for her trainer here at all?

Z is trained by a guy with a lifetime profitable ROI who transformed Life Is Sweet from a weak Eastern turf and syn horse with Mott into a BC Distaff winner and one who wasn't losing far to Zenyatta in races where both of them were impacted by poor setups for deep closers.

I was referring to St Trinian's trainer.