A Little Warm Returns... Tuesday, Delaware Park
 

9th (4:51)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance Optional Claiming ($40,000) | Purse: $41,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Miner's Reserve Rose J 118 L
2 A Little Warm Velazquez J R 115 LA
3 Grand Sensation Rocco J S Jr 121 $40,000 LA
4 Twisted Dream Castillo O O 121 L
5 Delaware River Shepherd J 121 $40,000 LA
6 Strikewhileitshot Valdivia J Jr 121 LA
7 Toby the Coal Man Thompson T J 121 LA
8 Critical Acclaim Rose J 121 $40,000 L
9 Jen's Revenge Rose J 121 $40,000 LA
10 Bear's Rocket Bravo J 121 LA

I had a couple of concerns here that may prove to be moot if there is a scratch or two. First, why are both A Little Warm and Miners Reserve showing up in this spot? Just 11 days from this race, they run the listed Barbaro Stakes at the same distance and track for $100,000 against straight 3yos. To be fair, it's likely that Zito has another horse pointing for that race.

Also, and I could be dead wrong as it's essentially a second tier track, but wouldn't it be better to run against straight 3yos than tackle older horses? Especially considering its a second condition allowance, not a first.

Anyways, A Little Warm IMO still needs to prove his routing ability and given some of the concerns I mentioned I don't think it'll be as much of a slam dunk as it would appear on the surface (I say this because Tony Dutrow is quoted in the DRF mentioning "bigger and better things".)

Doing this could easily give them a false sense of hope that A Little Warm can go far. Even the Fair Grounds speed bias on LA Derby day couldn't get him home.

imo miners reserve is a very serious horse and will be very tough if he starts here.

Dude, stop getting so fugging emotional.

The Florida Derby debacle is an obvious throwout, but did this colt have a viable excuse in the Derby Trial?

I don't like those meltdown-types, particularly when they only show their best stuff in allowance races.

At least he's only 3, so he has a license to mature/improve, etc.

its possible he didnt handle the wet track in the derby trial.

I guess 6 scratches in the race changes things. Don't know much about the other two horses in here, but I wonder if it will play out like a match race between A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve.

3 min to post... I am waiting another 2 minutes if the 1 is above even money, I am tossing $100 to win on him.

Stupid horse had to stay at 6-5... Not even that I like him, as much as I was not sold on A Little Warm.

Got a pick for the Arabians in the 10th?:rolleyes:

Tentatively, does this race tend to make A Little Warm a contender for the Travers (Haskell/Jim Dandy first, of course) or does it merely write off Miner's Reserve as an elite 3yo?

It was a very fast race.

I need to really learn this game then, I saw 2 horses plodding home who wanted no part of really going long, the 1 had really no excuse at all.

Honestly, this is a given.

I know the race went 6 seconds faster then the one before, but that race before is like bottom level junk, no?

Instead of hastening to form opinions, sometimes it helps to actually do the real research, and quantify things as opposed to using useless generalizations.

" Bottom level junk " run speed figures as well. 38 lengths at 1 1/16 equals around 65 Beyer points. Everything is relative.

The third finisher in the 9th lost by 16 3/4 lengths. That's around 28 Beyer points. Did you look at his pps?

This stuff isn't rocket science.

I see it....
I guess this is why the game is not as simple as beyers... This race will come back large, and I want no part of either of these horses next out, especially if its in races like the Jim Dandy or Haskell.

And therein lies part of the problem. You insist on making kneejerk reactions to performances and forming opinions both seconds after races are run and subsequently weeks before others are even drawn, much less run. What exactly is the upside in this? So you can make internet declarations? How much money does that translate to at the windows?

Some of us have to offer opinions a day or two before races are run. For no reason whatsoever you insist on doing it weeks in advance. Preconceived notions will get you nowhere.

I agree, I know this is my problem, maybe Im just to stubburn to fix it. I hate forming opinions and not being able to budge off it, but its just my personallity, I dont want to be like this... I really dont.

So if you were Nick, would you be disappointed? It looks like he set fast fractions and had every right to get tired. He may not want to run long as he appears to be something of a speed demon. I haven't seen the race, just read the recap in the Form.

I'm going to go on a limb here as well and state that I don't want either of these plugs back in a major race, on a NON SPEED FAVORING SURFACE, either.

Im not sure how much of a limb that is? Andy is right about me making a quick snap opinions, but I also trust my opinion. Would I give either of these 2 a shot against the likes of Trappe Shot, Lookin at Lucky, or even Afleet Express, NO WAY.

I'm actually sweating it. You know how much FAST horses influence my handicapping.


ha ha ha

I don't pay much attention to Delaware, that's being kind, but looking at the charts it didn't look like a big speed track. I realize that can be misleading but are you sure?

I take all Delaware races with a grain of salt, and I don't think anyone here is declaring the first two world beaters, despite how high the number will come back, but in this 3YO crop they aren't bad.

It goes both ways with me, because as much as I dislike these 2 moving forward I would guess they can be very competitive with the Derby and Belmont winners.....

The early number is 106 for the winner.

Let's not forget what Trappe Shot really is. I was impressed with his win on Belmont day but he's a fragile horse who was supposed to run in two graded stakes but didn't and instead beat a questionable allowance field (albeit in a nice final time) with a perfect trip.

He's good but to mention him as a top 3YO before we've even seen him go two turns is premature.

NT

I like brillant, raw talent type horses... I think thats what Trappe Shot is, I dont think ALW is that, I agree that he needs a cutback, he would be tough in the Kings Bishop, maybe??

What was so questionable about the allowance field he beat? As far as allowance fields go these days ... I thought that was an extremely tough entry level alw race.

I think it was more of a shot at me... This is from a guy who has talked Trappe Shot up to me for months now as one to watch, potential top 3 yr old... Now all the sudden A Little Warm is better?

You think Tahitian Warrior was ready to go off the layoff? Considering Godolphin's numbers, specifically at Belmont over the last two years, I doubt it. As far as the rest of the field, the Levine horse who got left, Ricoriatoa, and Monte Carlo are hardly good.

I also never said A Little Warm was better than Trappe Shot. I made a comment about him being considered an elite 3YO. Call me old fashioned, but I'd like to see a 3YO go two turns before I consider him a Travers horse.

NT

Was he ready to go in his debut race off of nothing but workouts?

He ran back to his huge debut race in sound defeat. Yet you still doubt he was ready to go?

What's wrong with Godolphin's numbers at Belmont? They look like this

2009: 5-for-24 (21%)
2008: 13-for-38 (34%)
2007: 8-for-32 (25%)
2006: 7-for-16 (44%)
2005: 5-for-17 (29%)

Are those supposed to be bad numbers suggesting they can't have a horse ready? When you consider how extremely cautious they are - they aren't exactly who you think of when it comes to starting short horses - or horses who need races.

Ricoriatoa was beaten just a neck in a fast N1X alw race in his prior start ... he was 4th by 11+ lengths against this so called "questionable group" of entry level allowance horses?

If this was a questionable entry level allowance group ... I'm absolutely dying to see what a solid entry level allowance group looks like.

Sorry you can't accept a simple little correction.

I remember talking to the owner of PeteCarol - a layoff horse he claimed for 80K two starts back - and he was all excited about betting him because he was outworking a good alw sprinter he also owns who runs high 80's .. when I looked at the field it was pretty obvious his horse was going to get smoked bad at a huge price. I guess I could have told him ... Wow, you got extremely lucky!! You landed in a questional field!!

The big question with most entry level alw races is 'why aren't about half the horses in this field entered in a 25K N2L claiming race instead?' With this allowance race .. the question was more like 'will this race produce a graded stakes winner or two?'

I should have said one year regarding Godolphin. They were 0-7 with horses who wintered in Dubai at the 2009 Belmont spring-summer meet and went 1-13 at the whole stand. Included in those were losses by horses at 1/5, 4-1, 1-10, and 7/2. None went off more than 9-1. In fact, their operation was the butt of many jokes here and elsewhere during the summer meet, especially after Cocoa Beach lost at 1-10.

Ricoriatoa entered that race off a six race losing streak where he was beaten as the favorite three times on the inner track and was under 2-1 in each of those starts. The "fast" allowance race he exited was won by a horse who got beat by a city block in the restricted Mike Lee next time out.

Some of the main competition for Trappe Shot was either scratched (Endless Circle solely based on his trainer) or left (Top It) or ruined on the backstretch (Zio Tony). Those were the horses in addition to Tahitian Warrior. As far as Petecarrol, his trainer couldn't teach Lassie to bark at this meet, so perhaps next time will be the time.

Now, was this a particularly weak N1X by Belmont standards this meet? Absolutely not, we've hardly seen a number of strong allowance races at the meet. It was a good group but Trappe Shot's win hardly makes me think he's a shoo-in to dominate stakes company or become a top tier 3YO because he beat those horses.

And don't worry, I'm more than capable of taking a little correction. Now, if you had compared me to RHT...

NT