Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?
 

I don't know if this has been brought up in another thread but did anyone else think that Willie Martinez totally cost Noble's Promise at least a placing or maybe more in the derby? He was sitting in the garden spot maybe 4 lengths off the dueling leaders. For some inexplicable reason, he decides to start the horse midway around the turn. I don't need to repeat what happened but it looked to me like a terribly premature move.

The dueling leaders had carved out fractions of 22 and 46. Did he think they weren't going to come back especially considering the way the track was playing all day? His move also created the space for the winner to come through, saving ground the whole way.

Noble's Promise has a history of hanging when he makes the lead too soon. He also has a pedigree where distance is a concern.

If I were an owner or Mcpeek, I would be pretty upset and definitely looking to change my jockey for the next race.

He had NO chance to get the distance...

I thought he did the best he could with the horse he had. Haven't read the post-game comments from any connections yet.

Nobles Promise = Sam P... A pathetically overrated allowance horse that everyone keeps making excuses for. Throw Dublin in that category as well.

He has been in 5 grade 1 races now and has earned a check in every one. Whether he can get a classic distance is another subject but he has proven he belongs at this level. No?

at the level, yes. distance, probably not. is anyone really surprised a son of cuvee didn't hit the board at 1 1/4? i think 1 1/16th is as far as he wants. never off the board til he ran past that in arkansas and then yesterday.

This is crazy talk. Noble's Promise is way better than Sam P. Throwing out his faster than Sam P. figures, the fact that he's been able to do this well beyond a mile is remarkable in itself. He's a very nice horse. Dublin's also a good horse in the wrong hands.

It's funny no one was bitching about WM when he was carving up soup cans over the plastic on him as a 2 year old...

1st against nothing in the BC futurity over the plastic
3rd to the LaL (who had no excuse) over the plastic
2nd to LaL (who had no excuse) over the plastic

Those are the only G1 board hits (anyone entered in a G1 "cashes" a check)

Clearly that head beat against LaL in the Rebel was much the best this guy will ever do on dirt...And considering what was in that race now clearly makes the point that he was never a classic distance type - the Ark only reinforced that IMO although I didn't totally discount the trouble he encountered, if he had any shot at a mile and a quarter he should have showed it.

Ice Box has the only legitimate bitch coming to him in the way that race was run - he was clearly the horse to beat - WM gave NP the best opportunity - he just is not that good.

Rude,

this is as comprehensively BAD as your opinion of Battle of Hastings yesterday. It's wrong, top to bottom. Of course, when someone like you, who is able to do some cashing, figure (i.e., externally) aided though it might be, can be so dead wrong when it comes to interpreting races, then it sort of puts into perspective why the game remains crushable.

Nothing personal, of course.

This is a totally different thing from him being an "overrated allowance horse." I don't think anyone ever argued that he was a classic distance horse -- he was, after all, 24-1 in the Derby despite his back class -- and I'm certainly not one who thinks Willie did anything wrong. Because NP has (predictably) failed to stretch his ability past 8 1/2 furlongs, that makes him an overrated allowance horse?

It also isn't as though he got dusted yesterday. He was beaten six lengths. I find it hard to believe you'll see a Cuvee get that close to a Derby win in the near future (or ever).

If you think that the horse ran very well given the setup, then, it follows, that you think that Willie did something wrong.

He needs to get back to CA and run mile and a 16th against the other also-rans over the synthetic -I'll abide the Sam P reference is a bit harsh, but I would think a further progression in the TC or further is a waste

Thanks Fatty. Given that wager was made a day before the onslaught of weather that precluded the yielding turf, I can live with it.

Rest asssured Belmont will be Augusta National perfect before they dare place a nasty hoofprint over it.. After all it is all about keeping it perfect - not just the fact that it happens to be safe and green at the same time....

I hope you took advantage of the spectacularly clear pace/condition/-minus TRACKUS setup in the finale at Tampa today or the runaway 10-1 shot in the 9th at CD yesterday...

Never personal Bro - I love your insight

Not necessarily. I think Willie got the horse into a good spot, not expecting the pace to be quite that fast, then Willie knew that considering the pace and the horse's distance limitations, his best shot was to take the lead in the stretch and see how long he could hold on. It was his only choice, but that still doesn't mean the horse had a particularly easy 10-furlong trip.

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

I find that horses with distance limitations who are continually sent longer than they should be have a habit of "being moved early" every race.

isnt this kinda like wondering why an aging ballplayer hitting less the .200 would strike out 3 times in a ballgame?

He was also moved early at KEE and the BC (which he completely SCREWED up). Is your contention that he can't get 8.5F?

Equidaily.com:

In the wrong hands? What a ridiculous thing to say. Lukas is a hall of famer who was leading money winner for like 10 years straight.....AND who do you think trained Todd Pletcher??????

The quote confirms my original contention: McPeek is a CLOWN. His handling of this horse is like a cobbler being brought in as head mechanic for an Indy team.

Clown, possibly, but im guessing one hell of a salesman

McPeek found Curlin, Einstein, Take Charge Lady. Wasn't NP a 10K find? Some clown.

he might be a clown and still be able to find horse talent

There sure are quite a few McPeek haters. From what I've heard it's mostly that he rubs people the wrong way.

Maybe Obama can learn something Kenny McPeek....lol :p

at the worst willie m. moved abit to soon and MAYBE cost NP a 2nd or 3rd.
if they cut him back to 1m-1 1/16m, keep him on dirt and let wiilie m. on board. NP will be a force to be reckoned with, the rest of the year, with this group of 3y/os.

I think that's as far as he'll go.

:rolleyes: yeah, Lukas has had a ton of TC success in recent years. I know his credentials, it doesn't mean that he's still a good 3-year-old trainer.

Pretty sure this is nowhere near correct.

:zz: How so?

Edit: the details, for elvis:

Einstein was imported by (and trained by) McPeek.
Curlin was a $57,000 purchase by McPeek for Midnight Cry.
Take Charge Lady was purchased for $157,000 by McPeek.
Noble's Promise was a $10,000 purchase by McPeek.

It's exactly correct.

Because I was (in partnership) actively perusing him as a 2 year old. Kenny is a great guy and one of the greatest horsemen I've had the privileged to consider a friend, but am absolutely sure would be the first to admit that there were a few of us with him in mind....
glad he had to opportunity to be involved, and again an amazing horseman - not kissin asz, I just really respect the guy

Talking about Curlin specifically^^^^

Ah, I wondered. Thanks.

He's significantly distance challenged- which is no surprise, as he's bred to be a crack sprinter. The fact that he's already outrun his pedigree by performing as well as he has at 8.5F (again, I'll repeat that he's Cuvee's ONLY stakes winner going farther than 7F) speaks to what a game animal he is. I said I thought that he would run well for a mile before stopping before the race and that's exactly what he did. No matter what the jock did, he wasn't going to get 10F. McPeek has now come to that reality and is cutting back, and he'll be a force.

Trophy.

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Whether the horse is distance challenged or not is a different issue. Whether the horse is seriously good is a different issue. A seriously good horse would've been hard pressed to win with the trip this horse got yesterday. Give the horse the proper ride and if he continues to give it up late, then, concede that he's distance challenged or a plug. Continue to move the horse prematurely and the argument can't be made.

You can't have this horse doing all the running in just about every race it's run and then be critical of the results. No horse, even the best ones, can continually win under these type of conditions.

This is the same trainer that considers the immortal Kent Dedumbeaux to be the best Jock in the game.
Kent D== A rider
Willie M=== B rider

What a tandom.:rolleyes:

I don't disagree that moving early, on the Santa Anita strip which has a strong favoritism for patience a la turf, POSSIBLY cost Noble's Promise the BC Juvenile at EIGHT AND A HALF FURLONGS. Which, again, is his maximum distance possible- especially given that he was an early developer and getting the route is a little easier for a sprinter type in their 2yo year.

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

Phil-

Is it fair to say that moving early changed the dynamics of the race to his detriment and to the benefit of the winner?

Let me clarify what I mean by that last post. If he waits, lets say he drafts behind the speed for another 1/16th of a mile until the top of the stretch, he can wait for the rail to open up as the speed holds on a little longer. Does the winner have to wait then or go wide? Does he get into traffic problems and possibly get into a mucky situation with paddy oprado and the rest of the oncoming stampede all of the while giving Nobles promise a clear run on a track he clearly relished?

I don't think he beats ice box either way. My point is that the race would have most likely changed.