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-   -   Early Early derby odds (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35827)

Port Conway Lane 04-30-2010 10:17 AM

Early Early derby odds
 
Number Name Trainer Morning Line Current Odds
1 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 3 6
2 Ice Box Nicholas Zito 10 10
3 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 12 23
4 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 15 8
5 Line of David John Sadler 30 18
6 Stately Victor Michael Maker 30 14
7 American Lion Eoin Harty 30 25
8 Dean's Kitten Michael Maker 50 14
9 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 50 27
10 Paddy O'Prado Dale Romans 20 10
11 Devil May Care Todd Pletcher 10 11
12 Conveyance Bob Baffert 12 19
13 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 15 24
14 Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher 20 27
15 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher 30 41
16 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda 10 13
17 Dublin D. Lukas 12 22
18 Backtalk Thomas Amoss 50 23
19 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50 24
20 Sidney's Candy John Sadler 5 13

Morning line followed by live odds. Updated by the minute here:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/live-odds

randallscott35 04-30-2010 10:20 AM

Thanks for the link.

cakes44 04-30-2010 10:31 AM

Good to see Backtalk taking $$.

Port Conway Lane 04-30-2010 10:34 AM

If the exacta prices over top of LAL are any indication the longest prices in the field will be 7,8,9,14,15,18,19.

tjfla 04-30-2010 10:37 AM

I wanna know who put there house,jet,and yacht on Dean's Kitten?

14-1:eek:

randallscott35 04-30-2010 10:39 AM

Wait until there is about 500k in the pool....But Borel money is a real phenomenon as well as Paddo O Prado officially being the wise guy horse.

AeWingnut 04-30-2010 10:40 AM

I like the prices I am getting on #12 Conveyance (19-1) and #14 Mission (27-1)
hate the price I am getting on #10 Paddy O'Prado (10-1)

Arletta 04-30-2010 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 641691)
I wanna know who put there house,jet,and yacht on Dean's Kitten?

14-1:eek:

Perhaps a lot of people named Dean that have a cat :D

tjfla 04-30-2010 10:41 AM

Ya just updated

LAL 7-1
Super Saver 8-1
Ice Box and Paddy 10-1

Port Conway Lane 04-30-2010 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 641693)
Wait until there is about 500k in the pool....But Borel money is a real phenomenon as well as Paddo O Prado officially being the wise guy horse.

Coldwater bandwagon;)

randallscott35 04-30-2010 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 641698)
Coldwater bandwagon;)

I respect the opinions of the people there alot with regards to how well he's training. I believe it. I would not have used Dennis of Cork a few years ago without those opinions....but I don't think the risk/reward is anything near what it should be on this horse.

Port Conway Lane 04-30-2010 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 641699)
I respect the opinions of the people there alot with regards to how well he's training. I believe it. I would not have used Dennis of Cork a few years ago without those opinions....but I don't think the risk/reward is anything near what it should be on this horse.

Me too.

philcski 04-30-2010 10:53 AM

Current odds based on Oaks/Derby double... which I believe to be a very good indicator.
1 Lookin at Lucky (Gomez) 3.1-1
2 Ice Box (Lezcano) 15-1
3 Noble's Promise (W. Martinez) 23-1
4 Super Saver (Borel) 15-1
5 Line of David (Bejarano) 37-1
6 Stately Victor (A. Garcia) 20-1
7 American Lion (Flores) 33-1
8 Dean's Kitten (Albarado) 54-1
9 Make Music for Me (Rosario) 59-1
10 Paddy O'Prado (Desormeaux) 30-1
11 Devil May Care (J. Velazquez) 18-1
12 Conveyance (M. Garcia) 29-1
13 Jackson Bend (M. Smith) 29-1
14 Mission Impazible (Maragh) 25-1
15 Discreetly Mine (Castellano) 58-1
16 Awesome Act (Leparoux) 11-1
17 Dublin (Thompson) 31-1
18 Backtalk (Mena) 56-1
19 Homeboykris (Dominguez) 73-1
20 Sidney's Candy (Talamo) 8-1

Port Conway Lane 04-30-2010 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 641705)
Current odds based on Oaks/Derby double... which I believe to be a very good indicator.
1 Lookin at Lucky (Gomez) 3.1-1
2 Ice Box (Lezcano) 15-1
3 Noble's Promise (W. Martinez) 23-1
4 Super Saver (Borel) 15-1
5 Line of David (Bejarano) 37-1
6 Stately Victor (A. Garcia) 20-1
7 American Lion (Flores) 33-1
8 Dean's Kitten (Albarado) 54-1
9 Make Music for Me (Rosario) 59-1
10 Paddy O'Prado (Desormeaux) 30-1
11 Devil May Care (J. Velazquez) 18-1
12 Conveyance (M. Garcia) 29-1
13 Jackson Bend (M. Smith) 29-1
14 Mission Impazible (Maragh) 25-1
15 Discreetly Mine (Castellano) 58-1
16 Awesome Act (Leparoux) 11-1
17 Dublin (Thompson) 31-1
18 Backtalk (Mena) 56-1
19 Homeboykris (Dominguez) 73-1
20 Sidney's Candy (Talamo) 8-1

Where is that? I couldn't find it on the KD site.

Antitrust32 04-30-2010 10:58 AM

very stupid question but my brain is farting.

You can do $1 exacta boxes at Churchill, correct?

rpncaine 04-30-2010 10:59 AM

Correct

philcski 04-30-2010 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 641707)
Where is that? I couldn't find it on the KD site.

twinspires.com has the Oaks/Derby probables... I used Blind Luck's double prices as the start and recalculated to determine the odds.

For what it's worth, she's 9/5 in the double pool.

randallscott35 04-30-2010 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 641713)
twinspires.com has the Oaks/Derby probables... I used Blind Luck's double prices as the start and recalculated to determine the odds.

For what it's worth, she's 9/5 in the double pool.

Surprised she's that high.

ranger5830 04-30-2010 11:04 AM

It's so amazing, I just had to note it, as of right now, Super Saver is the Derby favorite.

alysheba4 04-30-2010 11:08 AM

noble,s promise @ 23-1 is fantastic......i am getting down a 1,2,3,4,20 ex. bx & tri bx. n.p is ready to fire HUGE.....

philcski 04-30-2010 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 641714)
Surprised she's that high.

I'm not... Jerry Brown recommended a bet against. She'll probably drift down but 6/5 was probably too low a morning line.

Antitrust32 04-30-2010 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpncaine (Post 641711)
Correct

thanks!

NoLuvForPletch 04-30-2010 11:17 AM

a) what does 2 inches of rain do to this place besides make it real wet?

b) knowing what is coming (above), and knowing that all people are talking about in regards to how much speed there will be on the front end, how is ice box not taking more money? i don't like him at 6-1, but have to play him at double digits, especially after his work in the water the other day...

tjfla 04-30-2010 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alysheba4 (Post 641717)
noble,s promise @ 23-1 is fantastic......i am getting down a 1,2,3,4,20 ex. bx & tri bx. n.p is ready to fire HUGE.....

The Hammer pick him=no one will play him LOL

alysheba4 04-30-2010 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 641724)
The Hammer pick him=no one will play him LOL

....you just brought me down man........

ateamstupid 04-30-2010 12:47 PM

Early Derby wagering
 
Small sample, but nobody shorter than 7-1. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a Harlan's Holiday situation with this field.

randallscott35 04-30-2010 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 641783)
Small sample, but nobody shorter than 7-1. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a Harlan's Holiday situation with this field.

Already a thread

randallscott35 04-30-2010 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 641718)
I'm not... Jerry Brown recommended a bet against. She'll probably drift down but 6/5 was probably too low a morning line.

Now 7/5. Will go off even money IMO.

Antitrust32 04-30-2010 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 641859)
Now 7/5. Will go off even money IMO.

its settled than.. the only bet i'm making for the oaks is a oaks/derby double.

ateamstupid 04-30-2010 02:21 PM

Super Saver holding as surprising 7-1 chalk. Lookin at Lucky 8-1, Awesome Act and Devil May Care 10-1, Sidney's Candy 11-1.

iamthelurker 04-30-2010 02:31 PM

Even with the post 7 or 8 to one on Lookin at Lucky is major value.

2MinsToPost 04-30-2010 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 641877)
Super Saver holding as surprising 7-1 chalk. Lookin at Lucky 8-1, Awesome Act and Devil May Care 10-1, Sidney's Candy 11-1.

Calvin Borel fan club must be out in full force at Churchill today. Every time I have been there in person and he has won a race the place erupted. Smiley must be all smiles.

randallscott35 04-30-2010 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamthelurker (Post 641893)
Even with the post 7 or 8 to one on Lookin at Lucky is major value.

I agree but remember it is early in these pools. But 5-1 is even higher than I thought he'd go off so we'll see.

2MinsToPost 04-30-2010 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 641897)
I agree but remember it is early in these pools. But 5-1 is even higher than I thought he'd go off so we'll see.

Yeah I think they only got like $160,000 in right?

Patrick333 04-30-2010 03:20 PM

Thanks for posting the link.

pmacdaddy 04-30-2010 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 641713)
twinspires.com has the Oaks/Derby probables... I used Blind Luck's double prices as the start and recalculated to determine the odds.

For what it's worth, she's 9/5 in the double pool.

Have you seen willpays?

Thanks

jwkniska 04-30-2010 05:20 PM

Below are the Will Pays for the $2 Oaks-Derby Double Wager
1 - Lookin at Lucky $22.40
2 - Ice Box $59.60
3 - Noble's Promise $96.60
4 - Super Saver $56.60
5 - Line of David $151.80
6 - Stately Victor $87.20
7 - American Lion $137.80
8 - Dean's Kitten $235.40
9 - Make Music for Me $278.00
10 - Paddy O'Prado $106.20
11 - Devil May Care $67.80
12 - Conveyance $118.80
13 - Jackson Bend $122.80
14 - Mission Impazible $102.60
15 - Discreetly Mine $241.00
16 - Awesome Act $39.20
17 - Dublin $108.20
18 - Backtalk $250.20
19 - Homeboykris $309.20
20 - Sidney's Candy $46.40

TheSpyder 04-30-2010 05:24 PM

Thanks JW

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwkniska (Post 641999)
Below are the Will Pays for the $2 Oaks-Derby Double Wager
1 - Lookin at Lucky $22.40
2 - Ice Box $59.60
3 - Noble's Promise $96.60
4 - Super Saver $56.60
5 - Line of David $151.80
6 - Stately Victor $87.20
7 - American Lion $137.80
8 - Dean's Kitten $235.40
9 - Make Music for Me $278.00
10 - Paddy O'Prado $106.20
11 - Devil May Care $67.80
12 - Conveyance $118.80
13 - Jackson Bend $122.80
14 - Mission Impazible $102.60
15 - Discreetly Mine $241.00
16 - Awesome Act $39.20
17 - Dublin $108.20
18 - Backtalk $250.20
19 - Homeboykris $309.20
20 - Sidney's Candy $46.40


jwkniska 04-30-2010 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpyder (Post 642002)
Thanks JW

had to find that one quick, as I'm live to three of them.

pmacdaddy 04-30-2010 05:34 PM

GL. Thanks.


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