Derby Graded Earnings List (Through 4/24)
 

Derby Contenders PP's

1 Lookin At Lucky $1,480,000
2 Noble's Promise $738,000
3 Sidney's Candy $630,000
4 Line of David $600,000
5 Mission Impazible $473,434
6 Ice Box $457,500
7 Stately Victor $450,000
8 Endorsement $400,000
9 Conveyance $386,000
10 American Lion $378,000

11 Dublin $373,208
12 Super Saver $363,832
13 Devil May Care $363,000
14 Discreetly Mine $355,000
15 Dean’s Kitten $326,475
16 Interactif $292,950 "Doubtful" according to Pletcher via Jay Privman
17 Awesome Act $285,000
XX Aikenite $267,806
18 Paddy O'Prado $250,950
19 Homeboykris (g) $250,500
20 Jackson Bend $230,000
------------------------------------------------------------------
21 Backtalk $222,566
22 Make Music for Me $218,750
23 Pleasant Prince $189,278
24 Exhi $180,358
T-25 Setsuko $180,000
T-25 A Little Warm $180,000

The battle for last just got more heated.

The last place trifecta is a doozy this year...ton's of contenders:

Rule
Line of David
Mission Impazible
Stately Victor
Endorsement
Conveyance
American Lion
Super Saver
Discreetly Mine
Dean's Kitten
Interactif
Homeboykris
Paddy O'Prado

How the hell can you identify three out of that group let alone one...

I guess what with Pleasant Prince being so far down now, Dean's Kitten is that much more likely to go.

I wouldn't go with Dublin. Who are the other three contenders you like for last?

One of these days, I will come to the website and check.... before doing all the math myself- thanks Steve!

Ron

I hate to say it but you have to leave Dublin in the mix underneath at the very least because of this year's field, very few horses have actually shown any ability to pass other horses in the stretch...at least Dublin can run from off the pace which is likely to be a mandate this year to have any chance.

I agree. I thought we were talking about the contenders for last.

I pointed out we have 13 contenders who must be left in the hopper to finish last and if Sidney's Candy can't rate he's in that mix too...this year's pace is going to be frantic...I would say something like 22 flat, 45 flat, 1:09 flat...very few horses have a chance to even hit the board unless they learn how to rate. Like I said, I am having trouble indentifying my last place trifecta, let alone trying to figure out who will actually finish last...as of now my leaders in the clubhouse for the tri are Line of David, Dean's Kitten, and Homeboykris.

All I know is with the pace horses will be dropping like flies FAST


Any horses that are in Top 20 that might not go to the Derby?

Would love to have Jackson Bend add more front speed:D

He likes Eskendereya, Sidneys Candy and Lookin at Lucky.
Good luck with any of them running last.

I hate to say "I told you so"... but I told you so.
Obviously I follow Keeneland very closely now since I practically live behind it, and I was afraid this was going to happen. The surface is unlike any other in North America.

Is this a Vegas bet?

So true.

The Derby is no longer "if you belong" and is now "if you qualify." 1997 wasn't that long ago when they only needed one gate, and it produced one of the more exciting renewals ever.

Travis could you get me an industry job?

I'll see what I can do. Post your top five skills.

This should be good!

Master Handicapper
Master Money Manager
Master Friendship Counsler
Master Chef
Master of many tasks

Interesting that the second place horses from both the Wood and the Santa Anita Derby are going to need some defections to even make the Derby starting gate.

FTFY

Derby Fall Out
 

Aikenite Out...Noble's Promise probably not

also add Odysseus

That's what happens when you no longer have the traditional prep routes and give the Sunland Derby graded status. Also, you have most of these trainers handling the horses with kids gloves trying to get one performance to earn money, then doing all they can not to "peak" early.

then they wonder why a good horse can't put three races together in 5 weeks. most of these horses have about zero foundation.(they hardly race and some don't even start at 2 yo) when a triple crown winner finally gets in the circle. it will be because hes a little better than the other garbage. last year we got lucky and there were a few good horses. this is starting to look like the year before with big brown and 19 other clunkers. hopefully, i'm wrong!

Maybe $800,000 is a little crazy, but it was a last gasp effort for graded status by Sunland Park. I'm just not sure how I feel about comparisons of the Sunland Derby and the Delta Jackpot some people make. Shouldn't we see if they relax into a G3 status or aim higher? If not in status than at least field quality? There's a big difference between dangling easy graded money in front of lesser Derby wannabees/neverweres, and becoming a respected minor Derby prep.

I'm sure now that they've got G3 it'll be their pride and joy out there. They might just manage to build a little momentum with the right promotion. If they don't get the stars out no matter how much purse they offer, I'd love it if they took it down a notch, but I don't blame them for trying. I will when it keeps my Derby horse out of the race, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Aikenite, with his second place finish in the Derby Trial, now has enough earnings to go the Derby if his connections so incline.

I like him for an also-ran effort in the Preakness, followed by a showdown between he and Derby also-ran Awesome Act in the Woody Stephens on the Belmont undercard. That race should be exciting from start to finish with Eightyfiveandafifty and D'Funnybone locking horns for a couple of strides in the stretch before hitting a brick wall at the 1/8th pole.

A Little Warm would make it a blanket finish if he goes.