Odysseus pre-Derby start at KEE or OP
 

Per Mike Welsch (DRF), after flirting with a train-up to the Kentucky Derby, Tom Albertrani says Padua Stables' Odysseus will start in either the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby as a final prep.

Wow, the Wood lineup looking nice already....could be even deeper

I'm not sure I'm a believer in any horse that came out of the TB Derby crapfest.

OK John.. I'll bite. Why? Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams both appear 'forward going' types.

The thing is, Steve, how much do they have to move forward?

Odysseus has shown he's a game horse but you also have to ride the hair off of him and those types seldom hold up to a setup like three races in seven weeks. Schoolyard Dreams is probably deserving of a more patient ride as it seems like Jeremy Rose has an idea of what works at Tampa that's just not good at all.

This is a question we're going to have to ask ourselves numerous times between now and May 1, that is, who can move up the most as what we've seen so far, even from top contenders like Lookin at Lucky, just isn't going to win the Derby.

NT

I agree they have to improve but I was impressed with how Odysseus was able to regather himself despite ultimately seeming to have been ridden in a manner against the way he may be most effective. I bet he is a better one run type from farther back in the pack, and not a grinder, and if he gets a fair pace ( not saying he needs a collapse scenerio ), and is able to drop back early, he may be much more effective.

He also probably got the ride he did because they felt Super Saver was the one to beat, and didn't want him to get an easy lead, which is all reasonable thinking, but you ultimately have dance with proverbial girl that got you there, and in the future hopefully he will be farther from the lead early.

A tactical change could certainly be helpful as he's made it clear he can finish when the timing/opportunity is right. After watching the TB Derby too many times I just keep coming to the conclusion that the race had fallen on it's head at the eighth pole and Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver, and the huge longshot on the outside were in neutral. That being said, Odysseus' move was far from conventional.

My hope for Odysseus, from a wagering standpoint, is that he starts to make the move forward we know he has to make in the Wood Memorial but still loses and then be in position to assert himself on May 1. I don't consider him a horse with no or even poor chances right now by any means, just one with inconclusive credentials.

NT

Lucky can run all day, and doesn't need to move up. Baffert can sit chilly training the horse, and it is evident by staying home and running in the SA derby, which he doesn't need to win, just keeping him fresh.

I completely agree that his credentials are inconclusive at best. I also pretty much agree with the rest.

Odysseus is the only one from the TB Derby that interests me in the least. Schoolyard Dreams is a nice horse but I doubt he can be good enough to be competitive in the bigger races.

Lookin at Lucky is a very nice horse, and his race at Oaklawn was pretty good, but he's also one of the favorites in a 20 horse field, and he has hardly shown anything exceptional. If one is playing big prices, Lookin at Lucky has to be used protectively in exotics, but he is also a horse that has done nothing on the racetrack to either justify a short price or instill any fear in his opposition....as opposed to Eskendereya, who IF he reproduces his Fountain of Youth, will dust the field. It's a big IF at this point but also has to be considered at least a possibility.

I'm a little surprised by the lack of respect that Super Saver is getting. Usually horses who win those CD fall juvy races are exposed in the spring, but considering it was his first start back, I thought his TBD effort was solid.

I would agree that Odysseus merits a second look out of that TBD race, but I can't say I hold much hope for either Schoolyard Dreams or Super Saver. I still think Uptowncharlybrown has some potential, but had a brutal trip and will instead be pointed to the Dwyer.

You'll have to expound on Uptowncharlybrown's brutal trip. I sure didn't see it.

Personally I don't understand what anyone sees in this horse. I never did.

I thought Odysseus was pointing more to the Ark D or Toyota BG. I know they toyed with the Wood, and even training up to derby (which I think is a toss if they do that). Still Green, but coming around. Hate to see him get his head handed to him in NY.

He is OK....but he hardly has a running style that figures to enhance his chances in the Derby.

I don't understand much of this. If he " gets his head handed to him " in the Wood then I guess he's not good enough so I guess that helps people from losing money on him in the Derby.

I just watched the Tampa Bay Derby again....

Uptowncharlybrown had a very easy trip and wasn't good enough. Every horse that finished ahead of him had a significantly tougher trip.

If Drosselmeyer makes the Derby field, it would not surpise me to see WinStar point Super Saver to the Preakness. Late start, Rule, etc.

Drosselmeyer? Stop making me laugh.

I look at as a more of an expience thing, and maybe a easier field. Plus it's a million. If he can keep his winning ways, mentally that's better than getting clobbered. But your right, if he runs like crap in NY (if they go there) better for the betting public to toss.

Ok. Then one of their other 250 nominated horses.

Super Saver isn't going 10 panels in a horse van.

I highly doubt thats his problem. He is not very good, this class is top heavy then SHITTY.

ESKENDEREYA, Lookin at Lucky and Dublin are all really good IMO. They can all win the Derby and continue to be good long term. Dublin might be the least liked out of those 3, but his trip was HORRIBLE last time that premature move had to have cost him. He needs to be allowed to make 1 big long run.
After these 3 you have Awesome Act and Sidneys Candy who IMO can both pop up and do some damage... After these 5 there is no one else. I think a horse like Sidneys Candy would pop up and run huge first time dirt, but I dont think he can beat Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.

dublin is really good? his trip was horrible? because he made a premature move? thats not a horrible trip.

hes a closing sprinter that can clunk up in a 2 turn race if the pace is fast enough. he has little to no chance winning the derby. he is totally dependant on pace and has done nothing to show he is a horse that will appreciate 10 furlongs.

Based on what you just said, it looks like you have no idea how he tripped out last race. His trip last out was bad because he was 4-wide the whole way around the track while making a ridiculously early move. In the Southwest, the pace wasn't exceptionally fast. It was solid, but it wasn't blistering and he had a tough trip that day out too. I would have to agree right now that the only horses that look capable of winning the Derby right now are 3 that were mentioned, Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, and Dublin as of now are the only 3I can see right now.

well you are in good company at least with your opinion.

watch the race again. if he was 4 wide throughout then nobles promise was 3 wide throughout. i agree, he moved early. so did nobles promise. what is his excuse for getting beaten soundly by nobles promise?

we disagree about what is horrible trip is. he moved prematurely, but he also had nothing left when it counted. hes a closing sprinter.

Surely if you're discussing race dynamics you understand the difference between being right behind the pace and lengths off of it when launching a middle move, right?

There's a big difference between being in 4th, 3.5 lengths off the pace and being in sixth, seven lengths off the pace and those horses moving at the same time. That's where Noble's Promise and Dublin were when the field straightened out for the backstretch.

NT

He and 99.9999999999% of all horses.

While that's an exaggeration.....but I don't understand why people have so much trouble grasping this.

Races are frequently won because of how they are run.

Odysseus may not be a great horse, but it is unlikely he will be facing many great horses May 1. He's not my pick, but then again there is no tote board up yet, either. Give me a price and I might give him a bet.

It probably follows, then, that it would be more advantageous to utilize race type models rather than (numeric) speed/pace models when it comes to handicapping. Instead of focusing on how fast a horse is able to run, one would look at what type of races the horse runs well/poorly in. Then again, this would mean there'd be no need for the bounce, and we wouldn't want that. :rolleyes:

Of course we know that " bounce " is just a convenient euphamism for " I didn't want to take the time to figure out why " but what you ignore is that accurate numbers can help predict race dynamics, i.e. good pace figures, and also tell you how capable a horse is under optimal conditions....which is what you ( and I mean YOU specifically in this case ) are looking for when you bet a horse. This is a flaw in your game...as you are as dogmatic as many sheet players ( I always laugh when I recall someone I know calling them Stalinists ) in an opposite manner of disregarding them.

Everything has its place. That doesn't mean we need to use and understand everything....but the more factors we understand and use effectively the better we will do.

Actually, as far as the Kentucky Jockey Club goes, it is one of the most productive 2yo races for Derby preps (though not necessarily on Derby Day itself). In the last 15 years:

95: Ide-won Southwest, Rebel, retired prior to AK Derby
Editor's Note- placed FL Derby, Blue Grass, Preakness, won Belmont

96: Concerto- won Jim Beam, Battaglia, Tesio, Whirlaway

97: Cape Town- won FL Derby, Holy Bull, placed Blue Grass
Time Limit- won Hutcheson, Spectacular Bid, placed Risen Star,
broke down Jim Beam
Real Quiet- placed SA Derby, San Felipe, won KY Derby, Preakness,
placed Belmont

98: Exploit- won San Vincente, injured March
Vicar- won FOY, FL Derby, placed Blue Grass
Grits N Hard Toast- won Holy Bull

99: Captain Steve- placed SA Derby, LA Derby, Santa Catalina
Mighty- won LA Derby, placed Risen Star, Le Comte

00: Dollar Bill- won Risen Star, placed Blue Grass

01: Repent- won LA Derby, Risen Star, placed Illinois Derby
Request For Parole- won Battaglia, placed Jim Beam

03: The Cliff's Edge- won Blue Grass, placed FL Derby, Sam Davis

06: Any Given Saturday- won Sam Davis, placed TB Derby, Wood
Dominican- won Blue Grass, Rushaway

08: Capt. Candyman Can- won Hutcheson, Bay Shore

His trip was easy but I have no idea why they put blinkers on. He was a nice closer suddenly sitting in a part of the race he's not used to. I agree, and think that he probably is better suited to some of the minor stakes at Calder this summer than the TC.

Odysseus will need to move up but he's now had the "tough race" that I llike to see a horse have before he gets to the Derby. He'll need to be sharp to take on Eskendereya.

Just spoke with Sanan...

Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby the choices now as opposed to Wood and Arkansas...

Good stuff. But it seems to me that any horse who wins going two turns at CD in the fall, be it in a stakes race or allowance or even MSW, instantly becomes a Derby candidate. And they seldom live up to expectations.

And I'm not counting Street Sense in this because that was the BC and the BC doesn't count as a fall race at CD, even though it was that year.

You're making an assumption here:

1) that numeric pace is a larger set than setups

I have reasons for thinking that this is just not the case. So, basically, I'm being dogmatic because I don't want to go from the more to the less comprehensive?

I think anyone new to the game should just stay away from numbers (of any kind). They should focus on understanding race dynamics and when they get to a certain level they can then incorporate numbers into their game. This is clearly not the way things are done, as reading comments for just about any race clearly indicates how lacking people are when it comes to understanding race dynamics. Of course, they certain don't lack the ability to point out the fast or slow horses. Anybody can reason about regularities in a model. The idea, however, is to understand how they apply to the thing that's modeled.

I would go Blue Grass.

First of all, I never made your first assumption.

I agree that people learning the game would be FAR better off taking the time to understand how races are run and how this affects the outcome and performances of the participants before they incorperate speed figures. This does not mean that speed figures aren't valuable...it is a completely different concept. You have continued to suggest speed figures are useless. You are the one that espouses a dogmatic approach to the game. Just because your methods may be more comprehensive doesn't mean they are everything.....and that is all I am saying.

Don't let us stop you. I suggest getting there early.....parking's a bitch.