Gulfstream Turf Course
 

Is there a way to find out what course they are running on, it does not say if they will be on the 'inner' or the 'outer' turf course that they have created at Gulfstream. For today specifically, it shows the 7th to be run with a rail at 72 feet, which I would assume outer course, but what about the others?

We're working on getting it to the web site... but the "inner" is 0 feet while the outer is 72 feet.

Isn't there 3-4 rail settings though?

Thanks

Yes... there are actually 10 lanes.... and two of them will be used at any time.

Lane 1 0'
Lane 2 12'
Lane 3 24'
Lane 4 36'
Lane 5 48'
Lane 6 60'
Lane 7 72'
Lane 8 84'
Lane 9 96'
Lane 10 108'

Doesn't it usually mean that the higher the rail setting the more difficult it is for a closer to get a trip because the course is more narrow. I remember BFree saying that on the show one afternoon.....of course that was SoCal and not sure how there would be any difference in the concept.

So 1-5 on the inner and 6 through 10 on the outer?

Thanks Travis, appreciate it greatly. Enjoy yourself some Alyssa Ali

As I understand it, they could, if necessary, variate and go 0, 6 or 0, 5 or whatever... will post back here once I know more.

the first turn is the key outside horses must send for position..

oh boy.

Great start . . . . :rolleyes:

Maybe they should have serviced the John Deere since last winter.:tro:

I didn't see what happened but see the 3rd race was a refund??

The big Gulfstream meet. LOL

what happened?

gate was still on the track as they turned for home, many riders started pulling up. gotta fill up the tank for opening day!

Travis - Gulfstream Turf races Part 2
 

Since you are a big wig there now, can you do something about the finish lines on the turf course. Watch the 5th race and tell me how a bettor can have any opinion about who wins, when you don't know where the finish line is.

A simple piece of red tape will do, I'll fed-ex it to ya if they don't want to spend the loot...

Thank you

Then run over to Calder and fix that one too!

It was going to be addressed as of today...

As a sidebar to the temporary rail positioning, after Wednesday, Posts 9, 10 & 11 had produced 4 of the first 5 turf route winners. All but Wednesday feature fave Tight Precision came from mid-pack or further back.

Charts for WED. 1/6 (Races 5, 7, 8)

Charts for Sunday 1/3 (Races 5, 7)

I know its early, but that's a similar pattern to the first month or so of last years meet, where posts 8 and out where winning with alarming regularity.

OMG. Gulfstream Park listened to the fans!! :) Red at least marks the outer finish line on the turf. Get that inner rail taken care of and we are all good.

Great job Travis!

Mentioned on the air that Powell had done some temp rail position work two winters ago... Here's his latest view of the new inner/outer concept.

From Handicapper's Edge at Brisnet


HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
by Dick Powell

Gulfstream Park has divided their turf course into inner and outer courses and a month into the 2010 meet we now have 50 turf races to analyze and see how the courses are performing. Through Wednesday of this week, there were 24 races run on the inner turf course and 26 races run on the outer turf course. Five of the 50 races were turf sprints and we will analyze them separately. This leaves us with 23 races run on the inner turf course and 22 races run on the outer turf course.

When the rail is out at least 72 feet, I am considering that the outer turf course. My research in the past showed that horses rallying from far back did well and outside post positions were inconsequential when the rail is out. Amazingly, favorites have won 10 of the 22 races contested on the outer turf course for a 45 percent strike rate. This percentage of favorites is even more amazing when you consider that the average field size was 10.91. The average winning mutuel was a healthy $17.57.

Races on the inner turf course would seem to be harder to win since the tight turns would generate rougher trips. And so far, that has been the case. In 23 races run on the inner turf course, only four favorites have been able to win for a strike rate of only 17 percent. The average field size was 11.09 and the average winning mutual was an even healthier $23.97.

So right out of the gate we see a giant dichotomy between Gulfstream's inner and outer turf courses. There is far more chaos in the results of the turf races run on the inner turf course with favorites only winning 17 percent and an average win price of $23.97. The outer turf course is the opposite in terms of winning form as favorites have won 45 percent and an average win price of $17.57.

When examining running styles, the differences are more subtle. Of the 22 races run on the outer turf course going two turns, four horses won that had the lead after a half-mile, four winners were in second after a half-mile and three were in third after a half-mile. Even with the wider turns of the outer turf course, which would seem to favor closers, horses that were prominent early won half the races. That said, four horses won after being 10th after a half-mile. What the research shows is that horses can race prominently on the outer turf course and win. Horses can sit far back on the outer turf course and win. What doesn't seem to be winning on the outer turf course are horses that run in the middle of the pack. There were only three winners that sat midpack after a half-mile and won.

Of the 23 races run on the inner turf course going two turns, there were three winning horses that won had the lead after a half-mile, only one horse that won from second after a half-mile and three horses that were third after a half-mile. Only 30 percent of the winners on the inner turf course were in the first three positions after a half-mile; way less than you would expect. Despite the tight turns of the inner turf course, two horses won after being 11th after a half-mile and five horses were ninth after a half-mile so as many horses won on the inner that were far back as those that won that were on or near the lead. And, only one of the seven closers was a favorite. Horses racing in midpack did much better on the inner turf course than the outer turf course as nine of the 23 inner turf course winners were racing in midpack after a half-mile.

Of the 22 races run on the outer turf course going two turns, only two were won from the rail, one from post 2, and two from post 3. So, only five horses won from the three inside posts on the outer turf course. One horse won from post 11, five won from post 10 and one won from post 9, so seven horses from the extreme outside posts won on the outer turf course. With the wider turns of the outer turf course, this makes sense and follows a trend that we wrote about a few years ago.

Of the 23 races run on the inner turf course going two turns, four horses won from the rail, two horses won from post 2 and one horse won from post 3, so only 30 percent of the inner turf course winners broke from the inside. One horse won from post 12, one horse won from post 11 and two horses won from post 10, so horses can win from the outside on the inner turf course. The point is that there was not any post position bias on the inner turf course.

So what do what conclusions can we draw about Gulfstream's two turf courses?

Favorites win only 17 percent of the races run on the inner turf course compared to 45 percent of the races run on the outer turf course. If you are playing horizontal wagers, you better go real deep on the inner turf course races while you should have a better chance of standing alone on the outer turf course.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced on or near the lead did surprisingly well.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced on or near the lead did surprisingly poor.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced in midpack did surprisingly poor.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced in midpack did well.

On the outer turf course, horses that raced far back did well.
On the inner turf course, horses that raced far back did surprisingly well.

On the outer turf course, horses breaking from inside posts did surprisingly poor.
On the outer turf course, horses breaking from outside posts did well
On the inner turf course, there did not appear to be any post position bias.

Still no discernible finish line.

I appreciate Dick's efforts, and certainly enjoy that they dispute the lunacy an ex-poster/self-proclaimed genius used to claim about turf rail placement, but I have to wonder if such a small sample justifies making strong conclusions. I will be very interested in how this data looks after a full meet. Of course, the problem with that is how the courses can change over time, especially if there is a prolonged period without substantial rain.

Regardless, thanks a lot to Dick for the research and information.

That was expecially relevent in yesterday's finale.

A spelling error!


:D

I don't know who Dick is but if I'm handicapping like this then I'm really in the wrong game. Then again, anyone just coming into the game sees this model as the way to go and follows it.

My money is on typo, unless of course you were referring to the second misspelled word. It is a sad day in DT land. Perhaps freddy stole BTW's login?

I noticed this and it's being taken care of. There will be a red tape on the finish line the next time we're off the inside rail. We move to the inside rail this week, which has the red tape.

You need to empty your messages.

My sent box was full... both are empty now.

Andy,
I wanted to wait until the sample was big enough but not wait too long into the meet and have it as useless. Results were interesting to say the least. One thing I have noticed, and maybe Travis could comment on this, is how the turf course(s) lack the bounce they used to have when they were first installed. They used to fly home with outrageously-fast final fractions. Now, not so much. I know the courses are being used hard and that might have something to do with it.
Dick

nice job dick thanks.