Tampa Bay Wednesday
 

Lets discuss some of these races....
I plan on playing the 4-6 and 8-10 pick 3's.


Races 4,6 I am lost on. I would appreciate any opinions and I am willing to spread in them. Race 5 I am using 2 horses, I like the 1,6... The prices will be right on both of these and I feel the favorite is really no better then the 6. I am a huge Jeremy Rose fan but there is going to be no value and I will try to beat, especially with the outside draw. The 1's best works were far and away over the synthetics and the horse is bread for the turf, the trainer, even though its a small sample has good numbers first time turf.


Still looking at 8-10, will get back later.

I don't usually play Tampa and I'm not today, so I apologize for not having the insight you requested, but I have a serious question about your betting strategy.

If you are "lost" on race 4,
don't have a single in race 5,
and are "lost" again on race 6,

why do you "plan on playing" that pick-3 at all?

I'm not trying to bust your balls or anything, I'm actually just curious why you said you wanted to play that particular sequence if those were your thoughts on those races.

Would you like honesty?

Never mind.

Theres nothing else to play today or tomorrow. I like the price horses in the 5th and I will not bet them both to win, so pick 3 using them both is the way to go, I just started looking and figured a few ppl's opinions on here could help come up with something.

I'm not a big Tampa Bay man but here is my shot at 4 through 6


3,7,12
6,8
4,7,12

best of luck

I guess that is the part that I don't quite understand. If the 5th race is the one where you have an opinion that you like....why not just bet the 5th? Why not bet them to win, or in exactas, or whatever you think makes the most sense?
Don't get me wrong, I love pick-3s, but in the scenario you described where two of the races in the sequence are giving you serious problems, and your strong opinion is in one particular race, I'm not sure playing a pick-3 is the smartest investment.

I think one of them can win, but not that they can run 1-2. I would rather play a 5-2-5 pick 3 for 50 then bet 25 to win on both of them, if I cant come up with the winners going 5 deep, then thats my fault.

tampa bay is the only track running..wow the dark days are here

What?

yes i changed it ..didnt think they were on break yet..

the two horses im interested in at tampa are the 1 and the 6

1,6 in what race?

Race 4 is a typical weekday Tampa race - bad conditions, bad horses and none of them look like they want to win.

That said it looks like it may be a great betting race.

I like the 10 Peacephilly in here. Darlene Dickau figured this one out and hands her back the Steven Dye for the meet. She is plenty quick enough for this bunch and the track seemed to be favoring speed Saturday. She should get out and get to the front with relative ease though may be pressed initially from the 9 and the 12, both whom don't appear quick enough to stay past the 1/2 pole with her. Holding that lead is the question but again who really wants to come after her? 1.02 work was sharp over the surface, again for this class of horse. And I like Hoosier shippers here. And anywhere near the 10-1 m/l will be sweet.

Thanks, I will def. be using in the pick 3's.

race 5

the 1 is bred wonderfully for the turf and the trainer is capable to have it ready for this test.

the 6 is a dropper who has showed some talent rock hard ten isnt the best turf sire in the world but this one may be good enough to get in the money

Rock Hard Ten has got a bunch of turf winners, I can think of at least 4 that I bet. Todd P had one the final race at Churchill fall meet at like 13-1, KMC had one at Belmont, Levine had one, who then came back to win a stakes. Hes going to be a GREAT TURF SIRE.


As for the 4th, the more I look the more I think the 3 might be the one to beat, even though he did not handle dirt at all 3 back. The trainer has a big ROI on this move and it appears that a lot of the outside horses want to be on or near the lead.

tampa bay weds

the way i see it if turf is on

race 1 1 mile and 1/16th claiming

pp 5 invisable cove ml 10-1 w/p
pp 3 no strings attached ml 5/2
pp 2 high chris ml 7/5

tri 5/3/2 box
---------------------------------
race 2 6f mclm

pp 7 thief ml 8-1 southern racing good outfit w/p
pp 10 smoke dab ml 6-1
pp 2 stag runner ml 20-1
pp 9 saddlers cat ml 8-1

ext box 7/10/2 /9
------------------------
race 3 6f claiming 5k

pp 7 pennyroyal ml 5-1
pp 1 bea precise ml 15-1
pp 2 garbo and me ml 7/2

ext box 7/1/2
--------------------
race 4 6f claiming

pp 7 bridge of gold ml 5-1
pp 12 barrington hills:rolleyes:
pp 10 peace philly ml 10-1 'v'

pick 3 races 2-4 7/2/9/10 with 7/1/2 with 7/12/10

--------------------------------
race 5 1 mile and 1/16th turf

pp 1 a allie ml 10-1 'v'
pp 6 manners ml 6-1
pp 8 apple charlotte ml 5/2
pp 4 castle in the coulds ml8-1

tri box 1/6/4/8
-----------------------
race 6 7f mclm 25k

pp 12 proud lawman ml 5/2
pp 7 rejected ml 5-1
pp 3 ocams razor 12-1 'v'

ext box 12/7/3
--------------------------
race 7 7f claiming 8k

pp 3 buck cash ml 6-1
pp 2 raligh express ml 20-1 'v'
pp 10 silivaiman ml 5/2

ext box 10/2/3
--------------------
race 8 1 mile and 1/16th turf

pp 8 sharp suprise ml 12-1 'v'
pp 6 omega cat ml 5/2
pp 9 mac n mayo ml 12-1
pp 3 scalinmillia ml 10-1

tri key 6 over 8/9/3 2

---------------------------

good luck hooves

You can have the 10, I think the other cheap speed wears him down. I really like Jimmy's Palace. This is his level, Rosario has him figured out. I think he sits the trip off the speed and is one of the few left running at the end. He will be a huge price and the 4 in :49 work is awfully good for this level and it tells me he likes the sand.

He's all yours, Kev. 8K N2L may be a bad race, but taking 4 trips to get through Mdn 5 at Suffolk is an all together completely different level of suck. You think she's going to get 48.2 to sit off of? The mdn breaker last out went the 6F in 1:15 ?? - I realize you can't compare tracks, but c'mon... when you break with a career high 33 bsf in 10 races, it's going to take more than 1 workout to get my wallet open.

I really hate this race, because I want to spread in the last leg and thought I could get away with only using 2 here but others are intriguing if the pace melts down. Apple Charlotte in the 5th is the furthest thing from a single for me, need to use a few there as well, so I've got to trim some place.

I know, taking 2 tries to get through Mdn 5 at Hoosier is soooo much better:rolleyes:

You know as well as anyone that certain winners of certain races at TBD make no sense at all. This is one of those races. I'm not saying that I am singling him, but if I am able to play any sequences tomorrow involving that race, I will have him on all my tickets. All the horses that will most likely take money look like bad favorites.

I got some really good advice on here via PM on time.

"Awful horses win awful races":tro:

I really love Tampa. It's like the ball field where we all like to play.

I respect all your opinions. After all....Hungarian Gent...I mean, are you kidding me?

I have no answers only questions.

Good luck to all.

Spyder............................................ ....................................out

Im tossing Apple in the 5th, if she wins WHATEVER. She will be 4-5. I dont think you have to spread in the 6th. Im using 2 mains and one backup. The chalk and the first timer both look ok, and a friend of mine liked the 9 as a bomb.

"He looked so bad in the program I had to use him". Exacta Bob

Agree - its a tough sequence. What do you think of the 5th? J. Rose in from Del (not that he had much going on) to take the Motion horse - I need to watch that race, but a ton will single here and there is some real back class to a few of these firsters. And the 6th is another mdn 25 wide open crap shoot.

Maybe Im being ignored here.
The 6th is not that wide open, NOTHING LIKE THE 4TH. Roses horse could win for fun, but at 4-5 who cares?

4th race

#1 MIGHT show brief early foot, but no thanks.

#2 Wasiluk!! horse will have to wait for his 48th race to pass this condition.

#3 His numbers are on grass, will get bet down like crazy, no thanks.

#4 Has shown at least some willingness to pass horses, which can go a long way at this level.

#5 Another Wasliluk and a jockey that hasn't won a race this year:zz:

#6 Oh boy...never hit the board in 24 tries at tampa:eek:

#7 Best numbers are on grass and the fake ****. Back with Behrens and his one race at Tampa leaves much to be desired. Should take some money based on the class drop, but too much to dislike for my taste.

#8 Sans the slop aided effort 3 back, seems like if she breaks slow at all, she shows no interest after that. She isn't gonna get a quicker pace than she had last out to close into. Another beatable one at a short price.

#9 Probable pace casualty

#10 Steven Dye 0 for 35 this year:rolleyes:

#11 http://lucieherkova.com/ :D

#12 Another capable of sitting a perfect trip from that outside post

Not being ignored - you posted before I had a chance to respond to GPK.

The 6th is wide open - and what I LOVE about Tampa is that if you're not familiar with Tampa, it can appear the way you are seeing it. And there's going to be a lot of that money in the pools tomorrow.

See GPK's post about the 4th.

You know as well as anyone that certain winners of certain races at TBD make no sense at all.

MDN 25's are notorious for not running to form here. Especially at 7F, this early in the meet over the sand. There's a lot that goes into it - I'm using 5 here and am not crazy about my lack of coverage.

The 7 in the 6th is the only one that looks good to me. The infamous GPK and BigsMC "Done No Wrong" angle :$:

Ok, who are the 5? I thought the chalk and the firster were clearly the ones to beat, and then the 9 I was going to toss in. If I get live tossing the Motion I want the big coverage also.

I'd like to see a work here, he can sure move over the poly...but I love Lionheart firsters anyhow. I need some scratches

I'm not using your buddy's 9

And didn't have a clue about this one until Dickau came along. I'm hoping he hasn't had enough time to undo what he received.

Regarding Cut It Up in the 4th, underlayed? Yes. Bad dirt race? Yes. There are other ways of looking at this horse's form. Instead of saying the one dirt race was awful, what if we say, both times this horse was in a for a tag she ran well? She broke her maiden for 12.5k and missed by 1.5 lengths in a 25kN2L. Perhaps she was just in over her head in her one dirt try at the N1X level and it is not a hatred for the surface?

If you are betting to win, play the 12. If you are playing horozontally, I would use the 3 too, but that's just me.

I can't decide what to do with your 4 Kev.....

As for the 5th, the only horses that can beat the chalk are the firsters. I like the 1 a bit and the 6 looks okay, but both need to improve dramatically to catch up to Apple Charlotte. As a side note, my stats have RHT as having four winners on the grass. Congrats to PG1985 for catching every one of them. You are truly the man.

Like I said above. If you are betting to win, you try to beat her, but horozontally, she is a near single.

In the 6th race, what is with Dale Bennett's choice of jocks? Rejected is a must use, but don't get mesmorized by those quick OTC works. Everybody works quick there since they installed the junk. Had those works been at Tampa, he'd be a single (and probably not entered for a tag).

Fast and firm (no rain since opening day, so the turf will be firmer and quicker than Saturday) today.....

Check the TIDE charts for Tampa Bay. If the tide is going out the speed should hold. If the tide is coming in speed is a question mark.

I'm guessing every agent saw that he's 2 seconds slower in the morning here than he was in KY (both dirt and fake dirt). Add the far outside and he has to use to get out, you wind up with Carlos Oliverio? Dunno, he will take money as a result of the speed figs from KY and the D. Bennett connection, and almost have to include in the Pick 4, but not expecting much.

A sneaky one in here is the Griff entry - blinks on and some sharp morning drills here - and a 5 lb bug.

There is simply zero pace in here - if the Lionheart firster has any at all, it's over.

Tampa too early to invest much.
 

So I am going in lite. Race 3, Pick 4: 8/8,10/6,9,8/4,12. Race 7, Pick 4: 9,10,4/7,6/5,8/3,6,8.

Tampa Bay Downs 7 0.50 P4 (PWHL) 3, 4, 7 / 3, 6, 13 / 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 / 3, 8 $54.00

2009-12-16 10:33:07 AM Tampa Bay Race 4 $1 P3 on 3,4,7,8,10,12 with 1,6 with 7,9,11,12 (ticket:7853E-54EE0) $48.00
2009-12-15 10:37:54 PM A Deposit of $100.00 was made. $100.00

2009-12-16 11:02:00 AM Tampa Bay Race 2 $1 P3 on 6-9,11,12 with 12 with 3,4,7,8,10,12 (ticket:C4F80-47217) $36.00

2009-12-16 11:05:34 AM Tampa Bay Race 8 $1 P3 on 6 with 2-5,8 with 1,7,8 (ticket:8BD58-BEDE5) $15.00

Cheap stab at the early P4 as the late appears much more approachable:

2,7/3,10,12/6,8,10/1,7,11

27.00