Freshman sires
 

As expected Roman Ruler is the current leader by Earnings. He's a well bred Fu Peg who ran Beyers of 103 and 106 at Del Mar as a 2yo despite slow starts both times. He had a large quantity of 2yos. Connie and Michael might be his best going forward.

There are four current freshman sires who have both 10 winners and a winner-to-starter ratio of 50% or better. They are ...

* The dead Proud Accolade (14 winners from 26 starters - 2nd to Roman Ruler in earnings)

* Wildcat Heir (26 winners from 47 starters - 6th in earnings)

* Offlee Wild (13 winners from 26 starters - 7th in earnings)

* Oratory (10 winners from 18 starters - 28th in earnings)


Afleet Alex has had just 10 winners from 46 starters. That only looks good when you compare it to his full bro Unforgettable Max - who's had 17 starters without a single winner.

Ghostzapper has had just 5 winners from 17 starters.

The dead Saint Liam has had just 9 winners from 39 starters.


Among the no-names making strong showings from tiny samplings....

* Hear No Evil has 3 winners from 7 starters - including 4 time stakes winner Jackson Bend.

* Dark Kestrel has 2 winners from 2 starters. One of them is a $1,500 yearling who won his debut big at PID with a 79 Beyer - and was beaten just 3 lengths in a stake race by next out Grade 1 winner Noble's Promise in his only other start. The other Dark Kestrel winner broke its maiden at Del Mar in a MCL race.

Hear No Evil was a very nice Calder 2yo. Dark Kestrel had a fast work at a 2yo sale .. but was a terrible race horse. He made only 2 lifetime starts, and was out of the money in a 15K claimer in his 2nd start. Never ran a Beyer higher than 56.

What's Bwana Charlie's official stats so far?

8 winners from 20 starters.

A fellow IC freshman sire Eugene's Third Son has had 2 winners from just 3 starters. I know that was a horse that the poster IC was a rabid fan of.

I wouldn't quite say rabid, but yeah, I thought that was a very nice horse. Can you say more about those runners ETS has had so far?

Dark Kestrel is a very interesting horse. He was a 145k RNA by Stormy Atlantic that went on to have a great 2 race career. He won his debut at ELP then came back a few months later and ran like crap in a 15k claimer at LaD!

He stands stud at the University of Florida Equine Reproduction Center, or something like that.

Isn't that where Tim Tebow will be standing in two years when his NFL career is over?

Bwana was my guess at best freshman sire for the money. 8/20 for $5k ain't too shabby.

Don't underestimate Teblow.

In two years, he'll make like the good missionaries of the past and knock up a bunch of indigenous people while he's away spreading the word.

Yeah - I said Wildcat Heir... but that was after seeing he had a slew of quick ones from the sales.

the one-eyed Pollard's Vision for 5K probably turned out to be the best value so far stats wise. 4 different stakes winners from 34 runners and 3rd in earnings.

GPK's stats are pretty solid this year.

Well....we really don't know, do we?

Man - one look at that avatar - and these images of Steve Phillips just slamming that Todd Hundley girl in the butt consume my head.

Some of those Forgettable max's brought big money in the ring.

when I first saw it I thought she was a 'make a wish' kid so it could have been worse.

wildcat heirs total wins from starts % must be best?

Dickinson had a strong year with breeding stock last year.

Of the three Horse of the Year finalists ... he trained the dams of both Big Brown and Zenyatta.

He also trained the nations leading 2yo sire Tapit... as well as Soto - who sired 4 different 2yo stakes winners from just 13 to make the races.

Here's last years top 10 North American freshman sires. Last years group seems like a much stronger group than Roman Ruler, Proud Accolade, Pollard's Vision etc.

1 Tapit
2 Lion Heart
3 Candy Ride
4 Medaglia d'Oro
5 Speightstown
6 Chapel Royal
7 Even the Score
8 Birdstone
9 Peace Rules
10 Congaree

The funny thing about this years Freshman Sires are the ones that are getting the Turf runners.
I just watched a 100k stake from Retama.
The top 3 finishers were by freshman sires.
1st: Kittens Joy ( expected to be turf only)
2nd: Bwana Charlie
3rd: Eddington

not to mention all the Ghostzappers that are running on the grass.

There's a lot of goofy things that happen with stallions.

In general... it seems like horses who are both well bred and were excellent milers are least likely to be total busts.

The type of super race horses who sell cheaply at 2yo sales are often downright dismal sires.

Skip Away, Formal Gold, and Silver Charm all sold for 100K or less at a 2yo sale .... were all amazing race horses ... and neither one can sire anything.

From this years freshman group - Afleet Alex was a damn good race horse and he sold for 75K at a 2yo sale - I doubt he can be any worse of a sire than SA, FG, or SC ... but I wouldn't expect a great deal.

You can't compare last years freshman class to this years yet.....we haven't seen what this years freshman stallions can do when their horses turn 3. Right now your comparing a class with only 2 yo in october to a class that has had 2 crops of 2yo and a crop of 3yo.....we have had some grade 1 winners out of this years freshman class so this could be a nice class.

You can't compare them yet fairly ... but it's pretty unlikely they will stack up.

You had this years Derby winner, Preakness winner, and Belmont winner all from '08 freshman sires.

Super Filly Ice (Rachel Alexandra) and Super Filly Light (Careless Jewel) as well.

Not to mention that Freddy Mo already has Speightstown penciled in as the next Mr. Prospector.

Sons of Skip Trial, Black Tie Affair and Silver Buck would not be ideal sire of sire types especially when all three were out of pretty weak female families.
Northern Afleet is decidedly better than those others but I dont think AA will have much lasting impact.

While stranger things have happened, it is highly doubtful that this years freshman stallions will have any lasting impact, let alone be anywhere in the same stratosphere as last years outstanding group.

Not a stellar list though I would expect GZ's numbers to improve. A horse I always liked was Southern Image, his stud fee was a cheap $7500 as a freshman, 9-28 with earnings of $253,440 thus far. Maybe he can rise to the top with more exposure. A bargain compared to GZ or RHT.

I think SI will be standing in New Mexico or Texas soon.

Sounds like a demotion. No one likes him? For 7500 stud fee he certainly is cheap enough though he probably won't attract that many nice mares.

Two more stakes winners for Kitten's Joy this weekend, that had to give him a boost.

He surged into 2nd place.

Dark Kestrel's 3rd offspring to hit the track - Key to Brooklyn - is 3/1 on the morning line in a 34K MSW race for 2yo's at Penn National tonight.

The 5/2 morning line favorite in the race is a Todd Beattie trained debuter by Medagalia D'oro. That one is a half sibling to 6 time stakes winner - and two-time Salvator Mile winner Presidential Affair.

I think Penn has cancelled for tonight. I hope they bring that race back though. It might be an interesting one to see, and play.

I didnt go far enough west. Now in CA.

Raising KJ's fee to $40k next breeding season is insanity.

What does 40k advertised mean..Free if we love your mare, 20k if your mare is reasonable, and 40k if you are a complete FN moron?

Wow, what did he start at?

I'm guessing that Ramsey will send at least 2 Kittens to the Derby.

It is Ken Ramsey. He will want the 40k everytime. If you havent noticed, about 90% of KJ's foals are homebreds.

They need to get graded earnings which will be hard since there are very few graded grass races for 3 year olds in the spring

He's actually got a bunch listed on his website that RNA

http://tbsales.com/clients/view.php?id=132

William's Kitten (http://www.pedigreequery.com/williams+kitten) is one that might have some potential. His LAD win was pretty nice (beat nothing though). He also ran 2nd to Super Saver in the Kentucky JC at Churchill

He did look ok, it would have been nice if he had picked up his feet a little faster in the Juvenile though. :D

He'll be all over the synthetic races!

I agree on both accounts. He ran a very nice race at LaD and Gomez said afterwards that he didn't even get into him that day. He made a nice move in the KJC and should only improve off of that race.

NT

Unless she is missing a leg, wouldn't this filly have some worth as a broodmare prospect? (on their RNA list)

http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/sep09/pdfs/3658.pdf