Rachel ran a good race, but...
 

Rachel ran a good race, but in victory, she was exposed as a good filly with distance limitations. MTB in defeat, found validation in his being a serious racehorse. If they go in the Belmont, I would think MTB would be favored over Rachel.

Whoa don't go out on a limb there...

PROFOUND!!!

ABSOLUTELY PROFOUND.

Cause there have been so many great fillies who could go 12 furlongs in the last 50 years, right? Especially against males?

The assumption that RA has distance limitations is ridiculous. Did you take into consideration how fast the pace was yesterday? She ran EVERYONE who participated in the pace into the ground. Very few horses are going to look fresh as a daisy after contesting those fractions and opening up at the quarter pole.

I find it hilarious that anyone would use the word "exposed" when desribing what happened yesterday at Pimlico. Unless of course you were talking about Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile, or a couple of others.

NT

All I hear is "she's the best 3 yo in the country" , "she's got the inside track on HOY". With those credentials, you would expect her to be the favorite in any race. I don't think she would be in the Belmont.

Friesan Fire is this year's Cowtown Cat. Anyone that gave him a shot either in the Derby or, laughably, the Preakness really needs to consider giving up the game.

As for PTN, he did his job by hitting the board in the Derby.:rolleyes: Sent all the Beyerites into heavy SPIN mode.

Wow.:eek:

NT

i had no idea eclipse voting was limited to betting favorites. altho i would disagree that rachel would not be favored should she run in the belmont. where the idea is coming from that she has distance limitations i don't know.

Considering the pace, how he looked like a train wreck going into the gate, one start in so many months etc. Big Drama ran a massive race to be 5th. He's a really nice horse... my early pick for the King's Bishop.

I'll take Musket Man or Quality Road in there if their respective connections have to steer clear of the Travers for whatever reason.

I like everything about this post except the last sentence... 4/5 :tro:

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahaha

Why the hell would she be the favorite in any race. She is the best 3 year old at the classic distances. If she runs 1.5 miles someone may beat her. If she runs at at 5f someone may beat her, but very few horses can fire at all distances. The eclipse voting has nothing to do with being the favorite in every race, its your performance on the track in the races you run. Maybe, to vaildate her, we should enter her in a turf sprint at santa anita. After all, she should be able to handle any surface and race...

my vote for insane post of the year!!!

Yeah Rachel was really exposed with having distance limitations when she ran the first half in 46 and change and still won the preakness...

And MTB showed he's a better horse than her since he finished 2nd right??

I seriously wonder who had the better trip... Rachel going 4 wide the first turn out of post 13 and setting fractions of 23, 46 and change, 111 and winning the darn race...

Or MTB who loped around easily made one run, experienced a little trouble on the far turn but was pretty clear for the majority of the stretch...

The bolded part is a serious question... am I crazy for thinking Rachels trip was more taxing than MTB's??

Also, if anyone who thinks Rachel, if she runs, would not be the favorite at Belmont is ABSOLUTELY insane.

I have to agree with the folks who think Rachel had the tougher of it up front setting those fractions. What I saw on Saturday in no way tells me she has distance limitations. The Belmont's 12f race is an obsolete dirt distance anyway, and RA can get 10 all day long. If she is on her game and they let her walk around Belmont in a half mile around 50, she'll roll them again. Much respect for MTB's effort, but making a too late rush up for second in no way leads me to believe he'll be able to beat the filly anytime soon.

A more prudent question would be is she just that much better at Churchill Downs than at other tracks? Borel has said as much, she just skips over that track where there are some simliarities to Street Sense, where he was lesser at other tracks. Unless she learns to run slower in the early part of her races, she will have trouble getting 1 1/2 if she indeed runs in the Belmont.

It's one thing to say MTB would beat RA at Belmont. But saying he'd be favored over her is batshit insane. With all the press that RA is getting and Borel's yapping and the big purchase price and the win over the boys, she may never not be the favorite again. If she goes to the Belmont she'll be 3/5 at the highest. I'll be betting against her with both fists.

???

She ran the same figure at Pimlico that she ran in the Oaks..

And I'm pretty sure Street Sense ran just fine at Pimlico and Saratoga..

I knew that was coming...numbers aside she was arguably a different horse at CD.

Well maybe she doesn't "skip" over other tracks, but she certainly can run just as fast over them.

And I still don't know what you're talking about re: Street Sense. He ran huge races in the Preakness and Travers.

Street Sense was better at Churchill Downs, he had the innate abilty to run the turns, handle the surface, look better...I don't know how much better to explain it. He was just more formidable when he ran at Churchill.

I don't know what to say. If the red sea doesn't part two different times, he never wins a stakes race at Churchill, yet apparently his "innate ability" to run there still would've carried him to victory. This is beyond strange. He ran terrific races at other tracks, probably better ones than his Churchill races, yet he somehow supposedly didn't look as good doing it, so he was a "lesser horse elsewhere".

Okay we will have to disagree, but it's my opinion that his Kentucky Derby and BC Juvenile wins were his most impressive races given the competition and the manner he won those races.

Life and Death? Id call it a well rated half length

I agree, Grasshopper was what 9-1 that day? He was stepping up to stakes company first time also. Street Sense really had to work to get by and the result was in doubt for the longest time. Not what you would want from a 3/5 favorite.

If you look at my avatar he had the lead from that point on and never relinquished

And to be fair, except for the BC Juvy where he ran on the conveyor belt, he never crushed anybody. His problem was getting to the lead and relaxing, which people blamed his Preakness loss on. He tried to do the same thing in the Travers, which is why Borel had to get after him IMO.

Street Sense was all out to beat Grasshopper in the Travers. It's not even a discussion.

Having said that, the Grasshopper that ran at Saratoga in 2007 was exceptionally good, and Street Sense ran very well to beat him that day.

How exactly did his Derby do that? He ran the same figure he has been running all year.

Then he must've been fast enough to hit the board that day-- as he ran faster than horses that were previously faster than he was. What a conundrum. And, of course, the claim was that he wouldn't hit the board. Simple as that, Bro.

You should really stop by more often. It's brutal here (without you).

The race certainly changed when I Want Revenge scratched, and Dunkirk and Friesan Fire basically were no shows. Without those guys, there weren't many left that would above him. Even then, even the most novice handicapper probably realizes by now a mid 90s synthetic figure is probably as good as 100 on dirt.

i thought his scant victory over any given saturday at tampa was one of his better efforts. then there was the battle with curlin...in both those races, he didn't get the god given parting of the red sea perfect trip, but ran his eyeballs out.
but then, i'm more impressed with rachels preakness than her oaks, so go figure.

He got a pretty good trip at Tampa and as far as I'm concerned he and Curlin both got good setups at Pimlico.

NT

Yeah

The point was never made that this was an exceptional horse but only one that tries hard. There were some, however, who made it a point to base their wagering around this horse NOT hitting the board. Whatever the situation, when he did so, they were exposed; and went to great lengths to 'explain' this.:rolleyes:

P.S. we both knew that Friesan Fire would be a no show, right?

I never considered FF a contender with his cushy trip win followed by a 7 week layoff.

Considering Grasshopper's surrounding form to those two Saratoga starts ... I guess he just loved the dirt there more than the dirt at other places.

He was 3rd at Churchill in an allowance to Roman's Run and Morada Key with an 89 Beyer in his start prior to Saratoga. And was beaten a length by Going Ballistic at 1/5 odds with a 92 Beyer in his start after Saratoga.

Grasshopper won that Saratoga allowance race by 6 in his start prior to the Travers .. the 2nd place finisher Smokeyjonessutton was defeated in his next 13 starts and mercifully retired. 3rd place finisher Mister Triester ran Beyers of 20 points more or less in each of his next 3 starts after the Grasshopper allowance race.

If Street Sense's Travers was bad ... how about his Jim Dandy where Cowtown Cat finished 4th beaten just 3.5 lengths.

I have to keep my place cemented as the resident Street Sense hater and all.

If both of those races were run at CD, I think he wins both and perhaps even comfortably. Given the video evidence of his BC and Derby wins on that track I wonder why there is even a discussion about this. He just catapults off of those turns like no one else.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sS6q36Xqcps - Derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB6NdbRDVkQ - BC Juv