Derby "might-runs"
 

Old Fashioned
Win Willy
Regal Ransom
Mafaaz
Terrain
Giant Oak

I can see all of them running. I can see none of them running.

That's very King Glorious of you.

I'd drop yet another are you the real Justin Dew crack here, but that would be way too obvious.

OF is out. I think the rest of the maybe's will go back and forth. It's the wait and see game.

Eric

Early favorite for worst thread of the year.

I can see none of them winning.

Yeah. We should probably stick to threads which are reduced to discussions about Indian food and PG's sex change.

You can drop one from your list.....



http://www.drf.com/news/article/102938.html

Win Willy
Mafaaz
Terrain
Giant Oak

none of these should enter.

I think we see Win Willy go for the connections wanting the experience. Mafaaz gets an incentive for taking up a spot - so unless somebody wants to privately exceed that incentive he probably goes..

Its April.
3 full months of declarations and awards...

that f**king blows

Old Fashioned out.
The Pamplemousse out.
Regal Ransom possibly out.
Papa Clem relaxing today.

This Derby pace keeps getting slower.

PG's sex change.

West Indian food.

Grateful Dead.

I believe "internet sex change" is the proper term.

not sure why Hold Me Back is going to the derby either...

However if only the horses who belonged went we'd have a 10 horse field or something. It wouldn't be "The Derby"

Actually I have this one 2nd choice to the entry of all the Nicanor threads.

yeah, the trainer of Win Willy really seems like the type of trainer who would enter a horse in a race "just for the experience". I believe he said before the race "Unless we run 1st or 2nd, we won't run this horse in a spot he doesn't belong".

Do you have a monthly subscription to " Completely Wrong Illustrated" ? Hell....you probably are the editor in chief of the magazine.

Could someone identify where it says Regal Ransom is possibly out? I haven't seen any report indicating he was in or out, so I'm not sure where this is coming from. Maybe I'm missing something.

i believe it's pure speculation on the part of the poster.

It's just that it has appeared on multiple threads here and I just wanted to see if anyone had fact or confirm it is just conjecture. As I said, after today, he is probably more likely to run than ever.

Is there a point where the connections of Rachel Alexandra get tempted?

Godolphin indicated they might save one for the Preakness, I'm guessing that one would be Regal Ransom.

Racing manager Simon Crisford said: "I don't think Desert Party was quite at his best.

He didn't pick up when Frankie asked him. Both ran superb races and both are contenders for the Kentucky Derby.

Regal Ransom was working well and has always shown a lot of speed. He had the run of the race and kicked clear in the straight.

Both are world-class colts and we will make a decision nearer the time.

We might run one in the Kentucky Derby and leave the other for the Preakness Stakes, but we will cross that bridge when we come to it.

We are just very pleased to have two world-class horses."


Racing Post


Even if they don't intend to run Regal Ransom, I reckon they'll enter him.

He didn't run terribly, really, but you're completely right -- Mac is the complete opposite of the kind of guy who runs a horse in a spot just for the sake of doing it....complete opposite.

It's very interesting that Godolphin refuses to say why Desert Party lost the UAE Derby......as he was obviously way against the track. There are, of course, two possibilities.....maybe they don't realize the obvious or they refuse to admit they produced a gimmick track on their big day. As amazing as it seems, the former could be the favorite.

Its even funnier that Simon Crisford basically scoffed at the idea of Regal Ransom being a Ky Derby type horse in February and all of a sudden he finds a way to win the UAE Derby. Maybe they're going with the upgrade at pilot to Alan Garcia to explain the win.

NT

The quote in the DRF this morning is that he is still considering.

I'd send the horse.

I'd send him to the Lone Star Derby.

So are you upgrading your "less than a 2.5% chance that he'll run" estimate?

--Dunbar

If I had the horse I'd want to send him to the Derby too. He got a dream set-up in his win, but he's obviously got at least a little bit of talent and his style could let him get a piece in the Derby (just not 4th, since that's where Terrain will be finishing).

Was just saying that Mac isn't the kind of guy to throw a horse into a race just because he can...I don't think that's the case with Win Willy, you can make a fine case for taking him to the Derby outside of just the fact that he "can." Point being, Mac wouldn't run Mafaaz in the Derby...some other trainers would, just because they could.

Did I say that? I don't recall. Maybe I'm getting old.

I wish I had the video, he was really certain Regal Ransom wasn't going to get a distance - this all went down back in January - after Desert Party first beat Regal Ransom in an allowance race. As much as Crisford admitted they think he would have distance limitations, I really wondered why. You know, because sons of Distorted Humor have trouble getting classic distances...Crisford could have looked in their own breeding sheds to see examples of that...say, Any Given Saturday...

The dam, Kelli's Ransom is by Red Ransom, and two highly successful Dubai-owned horses have traveled distances by him - Ekraar and Dubai Millennium.

All that being said, four days of rain, leading to a sealed track for 22 hours each day, up to Dubai World Cup night made it the most biased track of the entire 21 nights of racing in Dubai this season.

Regal Ransom came back and was making plenty of noise in the winner's circle - Desert Party came back looking fresh and ready for more. And you know there are plenty of people who think he has a shot - considering he loses the UAE Derby and his KDFW future odds actually went down a bit between pools 2 and 3.

My buddy who works the gap in the a.m. at Churchill said both horses look really good, but Desert Party looks especially good.

Apparently Garcia has his choice of the two, and he's likely taking Desert Party.

I'll be interested to see how he works over the next couple of weeks.

speaking of choices...gomez has yet to give word on whether he's riding pioneer or dunkirk in the derby-assuming both go. and mike smith picked up the mount on chocolate candy for ky.

I guess I can't blame them for putting Rachel Alexandra in the Oaks if they do. Bravo, ESPN or whatever it's still a big deal and a G1 ripe for the plucking.

I don't understand Terrain. Not knocking him it just feels like he's hovering. He "won" the Arlington-Washington Futurity via double DQ which I'd forgotten and I was trying to look at the footage on Youtube, I'll take the NTRA article's word for it I guess he was bothered a lot but it's hard to see it. He's never actually beaten graded stakes competition by coming home in front and seems like all the talk revolves around using him in your exotics, never 'he's my pick to win it all.' What's his ability level in all honesty? I'm just trying to better understand some of those that don't quite have their name up in neon lights but are high on the earnings list. Is he a wiseguy horse? Underrated? What?

Terrain reminds me an awful lot of Wilko in some ways. He's an honest horse with a bit of talent, and if he continues to be spotted in certain races, he'll make a good deal of cash whether he ever wins or not.

The Arlington race was a crazy one, and it was really tough to say whether or not he should have been put up to first or to second, so it's kind of one to let go while still realizing that he's never actually come home first against graded company.

I don't think he's a wiseguy horse at all; there's nothing at all that's hidden about him -- it's all there in the open, what you see is what you get. He'll show up with the same effort and whether that'll be good enough for third, fourth, or tenth is up to you to figure out. I like him to get up for the bottom of exotics.

This is their best chance of winning the Derby to date in my opinion. He has developed nicely and his last effort was really strong against the bias. At the same time, I think a lot of people are going to land on him and his price might be a bit on the low side, but still offering a little bit of value.

Classic Harvey Pack 'suck up' horse. Runs at his one pace throughout the race and passes tired horses in the stretch; only if they run insanely fast up front early does this sort win the big ones (Giacomo, Gato del Sol).

The dam, Kelli's Ransom is by Red Ransom, and two highly successful Dubai-owned horses have traveled distances by him - Ekraar and Dubai Millennium.

Dubai Millenium was by Seeking The Gold, not Red Ransom.

Interestingly, Regal Ransom is closely related to fellow Derby hopeful, Pitched Perfectly. His 2nd dam is the latter's first dam.

You wrote, "I think there is less than a 2.5% chance that he'll run in the Derby." in the Derby Future Wager -- Pool III thread.

--Dunbar

Maybe the 2000 Guineas

THIS YEAR THE WINNER OF THE "KD" WILL CAME FROM THE SMALL LEAGUE.
FROM TAMPA SPECIAL
AND HIS NAME IS......... :D