ny pick 4 today early + pic 3 payouts
 

I am not going to complain i an not going to cry i just want to post some numbers and people can interpet them how they feel and respond

PIck 4 win parlay for $2 pays over $18,000 , actual $2 pick 4 pays 8,686 , or less than 50% of the win parlay of the winners

Pick 3

races 2-4 pays $1,739 (win parlay pays $1,031) - this seems to be a good one

races 3-5 pays $1,470 (win parlay pays $2,318) - can this be right?

rces 4 -6 pays $2,364 9 (win parlay pays $2,982)

how does the pick 3 payoff pay more for races 2-4 then races 3-5? i just don't get it?

Not sure about this one, but on Foster day this year at Churchill the late P4 paid more than the P6. Only time I have seen that.

Marty,

They are individual pools. There are vagaries. How have the guaranteed Saturday P4 pools paid like 2X the parlay these first three weeks? How does the Magna 5 pay twice the parlay some weeks?

Multi-race pools are not formulamatic...

Steve - shouldn't the p4's or p5's always pay more than the win parlay or at the very least around 85% of the win parlay? How can today's pick 4 come back only around 45% of the win parlay , i would have thought the early pick4should have paid around $25k

i can understand a payout that is 80 - 90 % of the win parlay , but when we get down into the 60% or even today like the 40% range it's very strange

see post #1 added races 4-6

You have lost your mind

the main thing that needs to be said that just because a horse is 8/1 in the Win Pool, that doesn't mean the horse was 8/1 in the P4 pool.

You do it for enjoyment? I do it because I love the pain of running 2nd all the f'n time

Please.. sometimes your horse finishes 4th (in a 2 horse race).

I could **** up a free lunch or whatever the saying it :)

No one has mentioned this, but since Aqueduct is the focus of the conversation, has it occured to anyone that the "Serling Effect" could be at work on the multi-race wagers? Any number of players that are simply stringing Andy's horses in P3/P4 sequences could be skewing returns.

:mad: :mad:

I laughed :p

I'd believe the Serling effect would be the exact opposite of the GPK effect, i.e., folks run from GPK's picks like rats from a sinking ship.

:rolleyes:

Hello to you too John

:eek: :eek:
that is correct steve , if 1 used his horses , you would have hit both p 4's

i know what happened , the guys who hit the early p4 were so elated , they cashed out , headed back to the city , made a dinner reservation and invited andy out as a thank you for him giving out so many winners, they realized they forgot to put in the late p4 but they didn't care as the early one paid telephone #s

i can see the gang there now , at Del Frisco's , they have just finished the seafood appitzer that goes for a samll fortune , the steaks are on their way out , and the waitress from Alaska , who is simply breath -taking , is pouring the red wine with a big smile on her face ,asking for the winner of saturday's gotham , and she pleads come on guys everyone has to eat once and a while:eek:

Who could be so fn stupid to bet Serling's laimos?

only the ones that bet today. But he needs to develop a code or audible IMO.

The only way a win parlay is a true reflection of the pay out is if you make a straight p3 or pk4 bet. Most pk3s and 4s are wheels and every time you hit a win bet the winnings have to be split up between the horses in the next leg. Comparing the payoffs to a win parlay isnot very objective. If you had a winning ticket on any of these races . The true $2 pay out caan be calculated but a straight $2 parlay is not accurate.

Ummmm......no.

I am curious, and I am being serious, why not?

When I was at Toga, I was messing around with the win parlay cards and unless I am mistaken, that was exactly how it was done.

The only reason the parlay is slightly debatable is that perhaps the amount you wager on a horse could affect the odds. Your spread play plays no role in calculating parlays.

By the way, this is directly relevent to yesterday, where a $750 win bet ( roughly the parlay of race 2 through 4 ) would have knocked the 5th winner's odds down 2 or more points.

Of course, in a relatively small pool like yesterday, where there was $15 on the winning combo, it is hardly surprising the payout was short the parlay.

Just let me hit some P3s and P4s.....I'll take my chances on the payouts and not complain. Now if you want to get me pissed, we can talk about the several P4 dead heats and the f'ed up pool splitting thats involved there.

the payout came back short on the early p4 , it came back less than 50% of the win parlay - all i wanted to do was point it out , i realize the pools are independent of each other , but , this was a big variance yesterday and all players s/b aware of this so they can bet accordingly

it appears as though there are 2 groups of bettors in ny , both have access to the same figures etc, etc , but it's like both of the groups are on different islands , and on one of the islands the bettors can only bet win and on the other they can only bet the pic's

The only way this would reflect a parlay is if you had a single in the next race.

That would be incorrect.

Say you have a $2 Win ticket on a 5/2 horse. The bet pays $7.00. If you take your bet out of the pool entirely, that horse will still pay $7.00. If you increase your win bet to $10, the horse will still pay $7.00 for every $2 wagered. Your $2 (or $10) bet is really insignificant in the win pool.

Now, lets put that $2 into a pick 4 pool. Say the pool is $10,000 after takeout, and you have the lone winning ticket. Your ticket is worth $10,000 (excluding taxes). If one other person has the winning combination, your win drops to $5,000. 4 winning tickets is $2500 and so on. One extra ticket or one fewer ticket really change things.

The times when these win parlays are more $ than the pick 3 or pick 4 bets are just due to a few more people having the winning combination than there should be. In the win pool, the $2 payout is such a small percentage of the pool. The pick 3, 4, or 6 pools pay out a large percentage of the pool to a small number of people. In statistics, it's called variance.

mes i hear you - so if we take yesterda'ys 5th and before the race goes off we can see the p4 payouts , we notice that the payout with the #2 is less than the payout with the #3 , yet if we look on the boad the #3 is 4/1 and the #2 is 17/1 , shouldn't that discrepency right away alert us that the #2 is very live here because the payout appears to be short in realtion to the win odds? sohuldn't the public have saw this and hammered the #2 to win at 17/1?

Again, only a few dollars worth of tickets are going to change that number a lot. Maybe somebody has a phone number that ends in 4-2-1-2 and they always bet it, and then 3 other people figure to throw that 2 in as a bomb in case the first three races hit. I would pay more attention to double pools or exactas if you're looking to gain some tote board information. What you're suggesting is that somebody knew something and bet a $4 pick 4 instead of a $1 pick 4. I don't think that's the case. There were only like $14 worth of winning tickets.

thx , i will watch thhe DD boards more closley