Bounce Theory
 

Hasn't been argued about here in a while but tomorrow should provide a perfect experiment. Kamboo Man in Aqueduct's 9th, is coming off a career high 108 Beyer in a 7.5K claiming race (never seen it before). I know he ran on lead uncontested but had 96-97 moss figs to get it. 6/5 ML. IMO he bounces or for anti-bounce believers 'regresses' severely.

Obviously he's got no way to go but backwards.

In his only other wet track start he won by 9+ lengths going 5 furlongs. He came back next out in a six figure stake race over a fast track and was 8th by 29 lengths at 9/2.

Probably just a wet track freak ... it's also alarming that the trainer didn't jump him up even a single level off that win.

What about My Maloof Rocker in the 5th at Anita tomorrow?

Thats what I am saying. He wins by 13 with a 108 beyer yet he still wants to get rid of him for only 7500. That a huge red flag

Or, a huge green flag signalling to bet against this horse. This is my favorite type of betting race.

--Dunbar

Bounce theory folks, what say you? About this $4.50 winner? Btw, is the bounce theory more useful with fillies n' mares?

Ran huge again and was claimed...

My Maloof Rocker was off the board. She was taken to the lead though. Who knows if that's considered a bounce, or just a mess. Those Calbred turf alowance filly n' mares are pretty much despicable individuals to begin with.

Going to Peter Chin. God bless his soul...

Your girl is a Cal bred and should win at Gulfstream next weekend....She ran huge in her last race...

With Kamboo Man - his last out Beyer of 108 was 39 points higher than the next fastest last out Beyer in the field. Which means his last race was 15 1/4 lengths better than anyone elses last race on figures ... a mere 11 1/2 lengths more than his actual 3.75 length margin of victory.

So, using that standard, he regressed signficantly and still won laughing.

Him opening up at 5/1 was unreal...though I totally understand why he was a hard horse to bet at a real short price because with modest expectations tend to come modest results in the lower levels of the claiming game - and he wasn't raised off such a monster performance.

I assume his figure will come back about 8-to-10 points higher than his previous two fast dirt track Beyers, which were in the Mid 80's - but still 15 points lower than his wet track freakout last out.

This was something of an absurd example to talk about a bounce though - because the horse had obviously no place to go but backwards. It would be like talking about a bounce for Ghostzapper after his 128 Beyer wet track Iselin Handicap win. Yeah, he only managed a 114 next out, a 14 point regression...but he still won despite being floated out bad.

Predicting a bounce when a $7,500 claimer runs a triple digit Beyer - is like predicting a forward move when Afleet Alex runs a 70 Beyer in the Rebel and is wheeled back in 4 weeks with a good work or two in him.

That was a pretty neat situation anyway. Lets see what he does next time he's on a wet track - assuming he's sound enough when that time comes.

That board was wild with Kamboo man. 5-1 with about 15 MTP.... Got me all hot under the collar. Then dropped to where expected. Strange.

Trainer was stupid to give it away

We will see...

Feel better about it if it was a turf sprint. Don't care for that p-stream. I'll play that Vivian horse back there though(the one that blew the start in the last on Sunday.) A single if comes back in maiden claiming.

Kamboo man: 91 beyer

when I said bounce I thought below his 2 previous to his freak on 108. I was obviously wrong not only here but at the window too.

I think that remains to be seen, we are still talking $8,000 claimers, no? :) If Chin brings him back in a $20,000 claimer and he bombs, maybe whomever had him until today dips in again at a lower level. Guess that's the fun in it...

DrugS, what did you mean by "That was a pretty neat situation anyway"? How did you factor the fact that the horse came back at $7,500? For me, it was about as strong a bet-against as I will find, at least until the AQ bettors showed so much restraint in betting on him. I expected him to go off at 4-5.

If that same set of horses had showed up in a $10K+ claimer, I would have liked Kamboo Man at 6-5.

The owner did pocket $16.5K for the win--1st place was worth $9K. Maybe they needed to pay some bills?

--Dunbar

Another thing. The 2nd place horse encountered trouble according to the chart. "shuffled back...steadied sharply...6-wide". I haven't watched the replay, but that sounds like it could have made up for much or all of the 3.75 length margin at the end.

--Dunbar

To his credit though it appeared as though the track was favoring closers yesterday though the bias decreased as the day went on IMO His knee chips or whatever is wrong with him should show up in his performance soon.

even with a big backward move hes still the fastest horse in that group..i used him but the rest of the field were mules..

I thought it was neat that a horse ran a 108 Beyer in a $7,500 claimer and was entered back for the same price.

That was obviously a very negative factor.

Be it bottom level claimers or with Graded Stake horses - with lowered expectations often comes lowered results.


Just because the horse won nicely - don't assume that the horse doesn't have some real physical problems.

This summer, a filly here won a 25K claimer by 7 lengths, finishing in a supersonic 23 and change and ran faster than N3X Alw fillies on the same card. Instead of her connections feasting on the alarmingly easy allowance ranks here with her - they entered her for a 15K tag in her next start.

Myself and a friend claimed her - she ran a very good 2nd in a strong race for the level with a little trouble to boot - though her performance was quite a bit less than her prior big win.

I spent a good hour watching her cool down out of the race and thought she looked perfect. The hotwalker thought she was going good - a trainer and groom felt up her legs and thought she was fine. Two mornings later, I'm up at 5:30 AM and I drive to the barn to see the trainer, who was just coming back from out of town.

The filly couldn't even walk, could barely even stand up, and she wouldn't touch her food...the first of about five days where she eat almost nothing. They had a vet come by to give her a digital X-ray - expecting to find a fracture.

The next day I'm told "nothings wrong. her feet are just a little sore." So the trainer says he would get her shipped out in a few days ... and she was going to some guy with a farm in West Virgina who charges just $25 a day and trains with an equisizer.

Three weeks later - they're raving to me about how well she's doing and want to run her. I'm thinking these guys are criminally insane - but they assure me that not only will she not breakdown - but she might even run as good as last time. So they send her back two days before the race and she runs an ok 3rd at 5/2 for 15K. She comes out of the race ok. the next day she's barely eating and alternating between holding her right front hoof up - than her left - than her right. Two days later, I take her for a walk and she feels like she has a flat tire. About 2 days after that - the trainer tells me she's doing just great again. Wants to drop her down and steal a win - assures me no one will claim her because the whole backside thinks she's crippled.

A delusional version of myself let him do it because a trainer trying to talk an owner into running a horse in a spot they should win - is like a pretty girl trying to talk you into making out.

She won in good time for the level under a death grip and actually came out of that sort of ok. We ran her back again in two weeks ... turns out making her 3rd start in just 4 weeks was a little too much to ask. She got beat 10 lengths at 6/5 or so. The rider, who knew her story, said she kept changing leads and he just took care of her and never got to riding her .. though he oddly didn't pull her up.

And you, 'oddly' didn't check the replay to confirm or refute the jockey's claim?:confused:
I understand ILLman, the 'lead' expert over at DRF, has a new trip handicapping video out. This would be a spot where it'd come in very handy.

Thanks for the response. A few comments...

Okay, just wanted to make sure we were on the same page. I think it's an even greater negative factor for claimers than for graded stakes horses. There are more reasons a trainer might pick a softer spot for a stakes horse. But when a trainer is putting up what appears to be a too-cheap for sale sign, it gets my attention.


Well said.

I'm curious about your thinking in making the claim? You must have thought (like in yesterday's race) that there was something wrong with the filly. Who brings a dominating 25K winner back for sale at 15K? Were you assuming it was something minor that you could be patient with and fix?

--Dunbar