Worth a Thought?
 

I'm going to make an argument here that I don't know if I even whole heartedly believe in myself but I feel it's worth at least a passing thought. In 2003, I supported a horse named Candy Ride for HOY. As anyone that has read anything I post on here knows, I don't think a horse has to run any certain number of races or win any specific ones in order to be considered for an Eclipse Award. The only listed criteria for consideration for the awards is that a horse start at least once in NA. It was under this same line of thinking that I supported Ghostzapper as a repeat HOY in 2005. If one performance can win an award in the other divisions, as it often does in the sprint, grass, and 2yo divisions, why not for older male or HOY? And who says that one outstanding performance has to be in the Breeders' Cup? Can anyone disagree that Ghostzapper's 2005 Met Mile was the single best performance of the year by any horse? Getting back to Candy Ride, I didn't think he had done enough on the dirt to deserve the award over Pleasantly Perfect, Medaglia d' Oro, and maybe even Mineshaft. I also didn't think he had done enough on the grass to deserve it over Johar, Sulamani, or Storming Home. But I thought his COMBINED efforts on both surfaces, where he beat top class horses on each while running some very fast races, were enough to stamp him out as the overall best horse of 2003. This was an argument that many didn't agree with then and I'm sure still wouldn't agree with now. Which brings me to 2008.

Should Einstein be in the conversation for best horse of 2008? He wasn't the top dirt horse of the year by any stretch. He is in the conversation for top grass horse though. When combining his grass and dirt races together, he had arguably the best year of any horse in this country when considering all factors. Not just the names of the races won but the consistency in performance and the actual competition faced. Curlin won bigger races than he did but didn't come close to beating horses as accomplished as what Einstein beat during the year. Not close. Consider who Einstein beat:

-in the Gulfstream Turf Hcp. (Dancing Forever, who went on to win the gr1 Manhattan and the gr2 Elkhorn in addition to finishing third in the BC Turf).

-in the Woodford Reserve (Out of Control, a dual gr2 winner last year and 2nd in three gr1 races this year, a nose from winning two of them and Artiste Royal, himself a gr1 winner this year).

-in the Clark. None other than Commentator, who was considered one of the three best dirt males in the country.

-in the Maker's Mark. Although Einstein finished second here, beaten a length by champion Kip Deville, he did beat out subsequent gr1 winner Thorn Song.

If you look at the list of horses that Curlin beat this year, it's not even close to comparable. The best horse he beat this year was Einstein and that wasn't on Einstein's preferred surface. Was there any horse that better combined versatility (winning on both surfaces and at distances from 8-11f) and consistency (three firsts, three seconds in gr1/2 competition) while racing at the top levels of the sport from the beginning of year to the end? My answer is no. Although Einstein won't win a single award this year, I thought it was worth pointing out how good his year really was. If there was an award for most underrated, he'd be a shoe-in.

I was just going to write the same thread about why Court Vision should be Horse of the Year.

No.

Agree with this part. Had he beaten Curlin in the Stephen Foster, then your argument might have some more weight. He's a versatile and admirable animal.

WORTH A THOUGHT??

It is worth a thoght, as to why all King G's post are full page essays.

Had he beaten Curlin there, in addition to having just beaten Commentator, he might actually be HOY. My argument isn't that he should be though. I'd personally vote for Raven's Pass followed by Curlin then Zenyatta. But I just thought it was interesting that Einstein wouldn't even get a mention. Maybe he shouldn't but I think he should.

Is it possible you over think things?

Maybe if he ran one step in the Arlington Million. However, he did not.

But Big Brown can be considered even though he ran worse in the Belmont? Interesting.

Uh, yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

BB and Einstein had remarkably similar years!

I think that it was more like that was the type of race that he needed to win in order for this conversation to be even slightly legitimate.

Beating some turfers (and "look, he beat Thorn Song" probably isn't the best place to start when trying to make a case for HOY) and Commentator while failing to win even a single big name race all year doesn't hold a candle to a horse who wins the Derby and Preakness the way Big Brown did -- or the accomplishment of winning the Dubai World Cup and Jockey Club Gold Cup while running second to a BC Turf champion in his first start on the green stuff in the Man O War and then beating home more than a couple Grade I winners in the BC Classic on a surface which was a question mark for him, but the surface over which some of those Grade I winners were already proven commodities.

Yes, he's underappreciated, but this is apples to oranges.

I don't think Big Brown ran 6th in this year's awful rendition of the Donn either.

So beating grade one horses in grade one races means nothing because the names of the races weren't the Derby, Preakness, Dubai World Cup, and JCGC? First, I thought more people mastered reading comprehension than this. Obviously, I was wrong. I am NOT trying to make the case the Einstein should be HOY. I wouldn't even vote for him myself. Second, let's not be silly here. The names on the races don't mean squat. It's the quality of the competition. Curlin beating up on Asiatic Boy, Past the Point, Wanderin Boy, Well Armed, and Merchant Marine was not more impressive than the horses that Einstein beat. Big Brown beating on Macho Again, Ichabad Crane, Eight Belles, and Denis of Cork was not more impressive than the horses the Einstein beat. Let's be real. Sure, we all can bemoan the state of racing these days and know that a grade one in 2008 is not the same as a grade one used to be in 1988. But that still doesn't change the fact that in any given year, some horses will rise above other horses. Those horses will be the grade one horses. The horses Einstein beat were grade one horses. The horses those others beat barely qualify as more than allowance horses. Who cares about the name of the races?

King Glorious posted this to incite a discussion and raise people's ire. Even he knows the entire premise of his post is patently absurd.

Einstein is, however, a really neat horse worthy of recognition. He's overcome issues for years and is a horse of true quality on both turf and dirt ( better on turf ). His race at Fair Grounds early last year was spectacular. He should be considered Versatile Horse of the Year.

He would have drowned Big Brown on the turf when he was at his best.

Do you think he's an attorney?

As for Einstein drowning Big Brown on turf, Big Brown only had two starts on turf, one as a two year old. It's possible he had room for improvement had he run as a four or five year old.

To incite discussion, yes. To raise ire, absolutely not. Let me ask you something though in all seriousness. You say he would have drowned Big Brown on the turf at his best. I agree with you here. Between Einstein and Curlin, which of them beat the single best opponent on dirt, in your opinion? I say Einstein did when he beat Commentator.

I didn't mean any of it in a bad way. Raising people's ire while inciting a discussion is a good thing.

I don't really agree.....as the good Commentator, so to speak, didn't show up. Believe me, I have problems with both Curlin ( this year ) and Big Brown, but each ran races better than anything Einstein ran. Big Brown's Florida Derby and KY Derby easily eclipsed anything Einstein did, and they were BIG races, and Curlin's Dubai World Cup, Woodward and Jockey Club were all better races. Frankly, I'm not sure any race Einstein ran on the turf compared particularly favorably to his second in the Man o War. Maybe his 2nd at Keeneland to the perfect trip fraud Kip Deville.

I kind of figured you wanted to put a name on a hypothetical debate, so Einstein was the one who people would remember and fit the argument. That is why I think that any horse who gets trounced twice like Einstein did in the Million and the Donn deserves much consideration for HOY.

2nd San Pasqual G2 to Zappa, defeating Heatseeker (Santa Anita G1 et al), Arson Squad (Meadowlands Cup G2), Molengoa (Mervyn LeRoy G2)

1st San Antonio G2 defeating Heatseeker (Santa Anita G1 et al), Awesome Gem (3rd BC Classic G1), Zappa (San Pasqual G2 et al), Big Booster (San Juan Capistrano G2 et al), Student Council (Pimlico Special G1)

3rd Dubai World Cup G1 to Curlin, Asiatic Boy defeating A.P. Arrow (Clark G1)

1st San Diego G2 defeating Surf Cat (San Carlos G2 et al.), Rebellion (Commonwealth G2 et al), Global Hunter

2nd Pacific Classic G1 to Go Between, defeating Mast Track (Hollywood Gold Cup G1), Student Council (Pimlico Special G1), Surf Cat (San Carlos G2 et al), Delosvientos (Brooklyn G2 et al), Awesome Gem, Zappa (San Pasqual G2 et al)

1st Goodwood G1 defeating Tiago (Oaklawn G2), Albertus Maximus (BC Dirt Mile et al), Surf Cat (Mervyn LeRoy G2 et al), Mast Track (Hollywood Gold Cup G1), Spirit One (Arlington Million G1T), Tres Barrachos (Swaps G2), Zappa (San Pasqual G2 et al)

Really?

Which is why you see owners all clamoring just as badly to win a high-end money allowance that looks more like a Grade II as they do to win the Kentucky Derby.

Or why people would rather win the Dubai World Cup than the Clark Handicap.

Or why people would rather win the Jockey Club Gold Cup than the Gulfstream Park Handicap.

So, to answer your question more succinctly -- um, everyone.

See, I agree with you that both of them ran better races than Einstein's best race. I agree on Curlin's Dubai race but I think the Woodward and JCGC were mediocre. The Foster was better for me and he just so happened to toy with Einstein in that race. Curlin's grass race may have been better than all of Einstein's races too although if pressed, I'd probably go with Einstein at Keeneland as well. For these reasons, Curlin would be placed higher on my ballot than Einstein would be. So would Big Brown. So would Zenyatta. So would Raven's Pass, who would get my top vote. Commentator also would have been placed ahead of him until last weekend.

Nothing if inconsistent.

Synthetic results can be used to enhance a horse's record if a horse has a good dirt or grass record. When they are the ONLY surface a horse has enjoyed success on, they are pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

You know exactly what that argument was and why that statement was made. Taking it out of context here is not necessary.

Note that Heatseeker, Tiago, Student Council, Surf Cat, Rebellion, have all shown top form on both conventional dirt and synthetic surfaces in graded stakes company.

And when did Curlin beat them? He didn't. He beat Well Armed and that's the horse we are talking about. Nobody is debating whether or not Well Armed is a top synthetic horse. He beat him on dirt though and Well Armed is far, far from being the same horse on dirt as he is on synthetic.

It's all relative. Depends on which way you are looking at this thread (ie seriously or jokingly), Einstein.

Give HOY to Zenyatta :tro:

Seriously. Einstein wasn't the best performer this year in any individual area. He didn't run the fastest race. He didn't win the biggest race. He didn't beat the best field. There are maybe 10 or more horses in this country that are better than him. But they all didn't have seasons that were better than him in terms of combining winning good races, beating good horses, showing versatility, and doing it from the start of the year to the end.

Peppers Pride should be horse of the year clearly

What makes you say that? Well Armed ran but once on the dirt this year and got beat (like Einstein) by a horse unbeaten in his last 7 main track starts.

He also stunk up the place a couple of times in Dubai. He was 9th, beaten 16 lengths in the UAE 2000 Guineas and 11th, beaten 26 in the UAE Derby.

Never mind that those races were over 2 years ago...oh...and he was almost put down a week after the UAE Derby cuz they had been running him with a broken pelvis (he actually crushed in his first Dubai start IIRC).

More field trials are needed to test the hypothesis, Professor.

My mistake. Since Brianspencer tried to trump up the exploits of Red Rocks being a BC Turf champion when talking about who Curlin ran second to and that was two years ago, I thought that was what we were supposed to do.

Bring up all the ancient races you want, but at least bring up races indicative of a horse's true talent.

No one is throwing the 2007 Dixie Stakes in your face.

Good try, but you know that using my Red Rocks statement to justify what you said is utterly disingenuous.

You are right.

:tro:

In general, you are correct. On a regular basis, the races you named are going to be big races. They will attract the best fields and be highly coveted prizes. But it won't always be the case where those races will turn out to be the BEST races and 2008 is a prime example of that. Was the 2003 JCGC where Mineshaft beat Quest and Evening Attire a better race than the Kentucky Cup Classic where Perfect Drift beat Congaree? No. It happens sometimes. I remember back in 1988, a friend of mine and I happened to be at Hollywood Park during the middle of the week. They were running a first level allowance race on the card for 2yo's. The 1-2 finishers in that race were Houston and Sunday Silence. That was actually the best 2yo race I saw that year.

LOL!!!

Now that is delightful!