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-   -   Santa Anita Surface for the BC (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25854)

dalakhani 10-27-2008 11:02 AM

Santa Anita Surface for the BC
 
Any thoughts on the surface? I am interested to hear what some of you think about the surface at santa anita. I am not a SHILL of any kind for synthetics or dirt for that matter. I am just curious.

I came in to the BC not liking synthetics at all. Unlike EVERYONE else on this board, i lost money on BC day;) . I still came away pleasantly surprised about how fairly the track played and how logical (if not always predictable) the results were.

I am now ducking and covering my head because i know what the prevailing feeling about synthetics is from many handicappers...particularly those on this board.

Scav 10-27-2008 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Any thoughts on the surface? I am interested to hear what some of you think about the surface at santa anita. I am not a SHILL of any kind for synthetics or dirt for that matter. I am just curious.

I came in to the BC not liking synthetics at all. Unlike EVERYONE else on this board, i lost money on BC day;) . I still came away pleasantly surprised about how fairly the track played and how logical (if not always predictable) the results were.

I am now ducking and covering my head because i know what the prevailing feeling about synthetics is from many handicappers...particularly those on this board.

I love it....and as an FYI, they messed with the track right before the BC Sprint. They didn't touch the track all weekend and then right before the sprint they had the tractors out on it......

I don't know what they did but I didn't like seeing those boneheads playing with my karma :)

TheSpyder 10-27-2008 11:19 AM

I think the first thing I learned is not all synthetics are the same. To say there are three surfaces; dirt, synthetic, and grass is misleading as there's different types of each.

I don't mind synthetic and now that Keeneland has had it for a while, I know how to play it, just like any surface.

Once I got a grip on how the proride played (Hard to win on the lead) I capped accordingly and did very well.

My 2 cents

Spyder

GPK 10-27-2008 11:34 AM

I actually enjoyed watching and wagering on the BC this past weekend TONS more than I originally anticipated I would. The main thing that I was intent on was not to change my wagering strategy. 80-85% of my plays on normal days are horizontal, so I stuck with that

Antitrust32 10-27-2008 11:37 AM

I think it basically proved to be an alternative TURF course, if you look at the results.

People will see that no horses broke down and love the stuff... eventhough if the races were held on a good, safe, dirt track.. the breakdown results would probably have been the same as on the Con-Ride.

It works well in handicapping as you can throw out horses who have good dirt form - but that sucks for real good dirt horses who wanted to be crowned champion but ended up having to run on fake turf.

I hope next year that ZERO dirt horses go to the breeders cup. That would make me smile :)

Overall, I lost $5.50 on the day, and I used that 5.50 to buy a form. I'm glad I didnt bet the races except for the Juvi Turf (boys) cause that Euro that won looked real good before that race at those odds...

dalakhani 10-27-2008 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
I think it basically proved to be an alternative TURF course, if you look at the results.

People will see that no horses broke down and love the stuff... eventhough if the races were held on a good, safe, dirt track.. the breakdown results would probably have been the same as on the Con-Ride.

It works well in handicapping as you can throw out horses who have good dirt form - but that sucks for real good dirt horses who wanted to be crowned champion but ended up having to run on fake turf.

I hope next year that ZERO dirt horses go to the breeders cup. That would make me smile :)

Overall, I lost $5.50 on the day, and I used that 5.50 to buy a form. I'm glad I didnt bet the races except for the Juvi Turf (boys) cause that Euro that won looked real good before that race at those odds...

hmmmm...so i take it that this is not an endorsement for Pro Ride:p

Antitrust32 10-27-2008 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
hmmmm...so i take it that this is not an endorsement for Pro Ride:p


I guess I'm just more of a fan of watching good dirt runners run on a dirt surface... and not have 14 Breeders Cup races run all on Turf.

It will be interesting to see how Stardom Bound takes to real dirt (if they ever run her on it).

I thought the only legit "dirt" horses to win on the "dirt" this weekend was Zenyetta.. who may be a monster on any surface, and Midnight Lute (but it sucks that race wasnt on real dirt to see how Fabulous Strike could have done - I have a feeling he's better than Fatal Bullet:rolleyes: ).

Scav 10-27-2008 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
I actually enjoyed watching and wagering on the BC this past weekend TONS more than I originally anticipated I would. The main thing that I was intent on was not to change my wagering strategy. 80-85% of my plays on normal days are horizontal, so I stuck with that

On the plane back I was looking at the results and my losing tickets, I noticed that about 80% of my losing tickets were vertical, I was betting $12 to win $15-$20, bad bad Tom.....Vertical is NOW GONE from my wagering arsenal, unless I like a horse that is 10/1 or better.

GPK 10-27-2008 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
On the plane back I was looking at the results and my losing tickets, I noticed that about 80% of my losing tickets were vertical, I was betting $12 to win $15-$20, bad bad Tom.....Vertical is NOW GONE from my wagering arsenal, unless I like a horse that is 10/1 or better.


See...thats me too. I spent some some stupid $20 win bets chasing some N2L turf sprinters at Belmont:o

dalakhani 10-27-2008 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
See...thats me too. I spent some some stupid $20 win bets chasing some N2L turf sprinters at Belmont:o

I am opposite. Pick 4's killed me yet again. I found my share of short priced winners though.

GPK 10-27-2008 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
I am opposite. Pick 4's killed me yet again. I found my share of short priced winners though.


Over the 2 days, I played 4 different pick 4 tickets, and didn't hit any of them. I have found that the pick 3 works best for my preferred wagering strategy.

Antitrust32 10-27-2008 12:17 PM

Eventhough I thought 14 races were a little much (dont think they need marathon, dirt mile and turf sprint), I really didnt mind Friday being "Ladies Day" as much as I thought I would...

TheSpyder 10-27-2008 12:40 PM

I think if you think you have some singles, then you can construct some good horizontal bets, but you have to take a stand. Luckily I used Stardom Bound, Zenyatta, Midnight Luke as 3 key singles over the two days and made out OK in pick threes.

TheSpyder 10-27-2008 12:41 PM

I wonder why:p
Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
Eventhough I thought 14 races were a little much (dont think they need marathon, dirt mile and turf sprint), I really didnt mind Friday being "Ladies Day" as much as I thought I would...


10 pnt move up 10-27-2008 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
I guess I'm just more of a fan of watching good dirt runners run on a dirt surface... and not have 14 Breeders Cup races run all on Turf.

It will be interesting to see how Stardom Bound takes to real dirt (if they ever run her on it).

I thought the only legit "dirt" horses to win on the "dirt" this weekend was Zenyetta.. who may be a monster on any surface, and Midnight Lute (but it sucks that race wasnt on real dirt to see how Fabulous Strike could have done - I have a feeling he's better than Fatal Bullet:rolleyes: ).

Why are you so sure about Midshipmen?

King Glorious 10-27-2008 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Any thoughts on the surface? I am interested to hear what some of you think about the surface at santa anita. I am not a SHILL of any kind for synthetics or dirt for that matter. I am just curious.

I came in to the BC not liking synthetics at all. Unlike EVERYONE else on this board, i lost money on BC day;) . I still came away pleasantly surprised about how fairly the track played and how logical (if not always predictable) the results were.
I am now ducking and covering my head because i know what the prevailing feeling about synthetics is from many handicappers...particularly those on this board.

I'm so sick of this statement. It couldn't be more misleading. It wasn't logical in that the best horses were the winners. It was logical in that any horse that had shown prior good form on synthetics or on grass were logical to be considered the best horses for these races. It's not a coincidence that only four horses that had won a stakes race on real dirt (Indian Blessing, Cocoa Beach, Midnight Lute, and Zenyatta) were part of the exacta from eight main track races. And each of those four had also won on synthetics or on turf. This is not a coincidence.

slotdirt 10-27-2008 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I disagree. While Zenyatta was an obvious single and maybe even Stardom Bound, it would have been tough to single Midnight Lute with any kind of confidence given he ran once in the year 2008 and was up the track. he was clearly best and I used him, but IMO a tough single.

I think this is dead right. To be honest, if anybody seemed like a single in that race, it was Street Boss once Cost of Freedom was scratched. I was there on Pat O'Brien day and couldn't get that awful race out of my mind.

Scav 10-27-2008 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
See...thats me too. I spent some stupid $20 win bets chasing some N2L turf sprinters at Belmont:o

I probably would have been doing that also but there was no OUT OF STATE simulcasting available, could only bet Oak Tree and Golden Gate, and I can PROUDLY say I placed ZERO DOLLARS at Golden Gate.

Scav 10-27-2008 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
I think this is dead right. To be honest, if anybody seemed like a single in that race, it was Street Boss once Cost of Freedom was scratched. I was there on Pat O'Brien day and couldn't get that awful race out of my mind.

I agree also and trust me it cost me, I had a bunch of things tied to Street Boss and only a few to Midnight Lute. I am glad I was alive to what I was alive to because I wanted to put $300 on Street Boss but my live tickets afforded me the same action, with me keeping money in my pocket to waste on Madeo

The Bid 10-27-2008 01:54 PM

The surface was excellent. If the race would have been run at CHD Ravens Pass and Henry would have ran 1-2, right?

dalakhani 10-27-2008 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
The surface was excellent. If the race would have been run at CHD Ravens Pass and Henry would have ran 1-2, right?

I dont know. How about at charlestown or belmont?

The Bid 10-27-2008 02:10 PM

At Charlestown Raven would have been the nuts, hes a 4 turn specialist

dalakhani 10-27-2008 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
At Charlestown Raven would have been the nuts, hes a 4 turn specialist

LOL.

Curlin wouldnt have won there either...and its run on dirt.

The Bid 10-27-2008 02:25 PM

Curlin would have won anywhere with a natural dirt surface

dalakhani 10-27-2008 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Curlin would have won anywhere with a natural dirt surface

No way. 10f at ctown is three sharp turns and speed is king. Curlin would have been toast.

The Bid 10-27-2008 02:29 PM

Wouldnt Ctown be 4 turns for a mile and a quarter? Where would they start that race

dalakhani 10-27-2008 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Wouldnt Ctown be 4 turns for a mile and a quarter? Where would they start that race

IN the chute

TitanSooner 10-27-2008 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
The surface was excellent. If the race would have been run at CHD Ravens Pass and Henry would have ran 1-2, right?

That is pure speculation. Outside of Curlin, who was the top notch Grade 1 dirt horse in North America?

So, if Curlin doesn't fire ( or his jockey moves too early and too wide) , how is it not plausible that two of Europe's top horses do fire big and run 1-2?

Didn't Sakhee run big on DIRT? Didn't Giant's Causeway run big on DIRT?

Had to be the surface.. whatever.

The Bid 10-27-2008 02:37 PM

Right.

You think Tiago beats Curlin on the dirt? Tiago would be lucky to beat me on the dirt

TitanSooner 10-27-2008 02:40 PM

didn't Tiago run very well on the dirt at Oaklawn?

I think you are placing Curlin way to high up on a pedestal.. He won his races this year over some very suspect "G1" horses.

How is it not possible that he was either moved to early and too wide and Tiago basically sucked up for third after a ground saving trip?

I just don't get your logic.

10 pnt move up 10-27-2008 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Curlin would have won anywhere with a natural dirt surface

I have no idea how a horse who blew past the entire field, gained a length lead into the stretch, can use the "he didnt handle the surface".

Horses who dont handle the surface dont make that move.

How about he was not quite as good as he was 9-12 months ago, made a premature move on a tiring surface and then flattened out getting beat by horses with some quality to them.

10 pnt move up 10-27-2008 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Right.

You think Tiago beats Curlin on the dirt? Tiago would be lucky to beat me on the dirt

Tiago is a 8 furling dirt horse who has decent enough class to hit the board against good horses at longer distances on both syn and dirt.

The Bid 10-27-2008 02:45 PM

He was moved when he needed to be moved he didnt kick on like he does on the dirt. Thats very typical of a horse that cannot get over a surface, they do not finish their run.

I do not think Curlin is great, but I certainly do not think that field should have beaten him, nor would they have on a dirt track. That being said you are right about how hes looked this year and the crappy horses hea beaten. Merchant Marine whom he just beat looked like garbage on BC day at Belmont.

parsixfarms 10-27-2008 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
You think Tiago beats Curlin on the dirt? Tiago would be lucky to beat me on the dirt

That Tiago finished third in the race was not beyond the realm of possibilities. He had run several figures (many Ragozin "3"s) that could put him on the board in this race.

The question is why did Curlin regress in this race? Was it solely the racing surface? Was it the effects of a long two years of racing, especially after a trip to Dubai and back? Was it a premature move by Albarado? None of us can say for sure. The fact is that this was by far the best field that Curlin faced all year, and he didn't get the job done.

Finally, while it is questionable that either Raven's Pass or Henrythenavigator would have contested the Classic had it been run over a conventional dirt track, their pedigrees (by Elusive Quality and Kingmambo) would have been far more suited to a conventional dirt track than the pedigrees of the Euros (by such sires as Galileo, Danehill, and Sadler's Wells) that flopped in the Classic in recent years. They were legitimate Grade I horses that ran well. If they were able to transfer their form to a dirt surface (like a Giant's Causeway), the result may have very well been the same.

alysheba4 10-27-2008 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
I have no idea how a horse who blew past the entire field, gained a length lead into the stretch, can use the "he didnt handle the surface".

Horses who dont handle the surface dont make that move.

How about he was not quite as good as he was 9-12 months ago, made a premature move on a tiring surface and then flattened out getting beat by horses with some quality to them.

....really, the 2 horses that blew by curlin were grade 1 quality well bred horses......some people just cant deal with the fact that since the d.w.c curlin hasnt been that special.

slotdirt 10-27-2008 03:10 PM

Hmmm, 10f at Charles Town...six furlong track, the chute is for 4.5f, well dang, I wonder how the hell they would run a mile and a quarter at that joint?

GPK 10-27-2008 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Hmmm, 10f at Charles Town...six furlong track, the chute is for 4.5f, well dang, I wonder how the hell they would run a mile and a quarter at that joint?


They'd have to start here in Roanoke.


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