How does one approach this?
 

OK...Horses are "dropping like flies." Some folks are not turned on by this weekend at all. Others are drooling all over their PP's. I respect everyone's opinion/arguments/constructive criticism. I am going to my first BC with an open mind and will save my judgement for Saturday night. Life and racing will continue on 10/26, but for now this is what's on most of our plates.

There are people on this board whose opinions I greatly respect. All the sarcasm and jabs aside (I.D. don't bash me on Saarland right now), there is incredible insight and knowledge on these pages.

Kasept, BTW, Hooves, A-Team, Cannon, others forgive me for not mentioning by (screen) name....I've started this thread in order to gather opinions on how to strategically approach these 2 days from a wagering perspective. I will be there, so that onto itself may differ from those playing at local tracks, OTB's, or at home. Is betting every race out of the question? Should I emphasize the turf races as the pro-ride does not have enough history? How should dollars be allocated for Fri vs. Sat? There are many other questions that I would love to see asked and debated.

This may not be the prettiest BC, new format and all, but these races always produce enormous prices. Just want to maximize my chances.

Good luck to all.

Do a pick 3 on friday. All/Zenyatta/All or Zenyatta/All/All or All/All/Zenyatta. Hope that bombs surround her.

And then be really pissed when Carriage Trail beats her.

key intangeroo underneath in the fm sprint.

she'll be 15-1 and is at least 50/50 to hit the board.

The juvy filly turf....throw a dart.

These are impossible questions for anybody but you to answer.
Are YOU better on turf or synthetics? Are there horses YOU really like in specific races? This is the only way to answer these questions. If you are planning on wagering on Friday and Saturday, you should probably look at all the races, and identify a couple of really good plays. You should put the most amount of money on those races. Playing every race is fine, but if you do so it is probably best to go with really small wagers on the races you are less confident in, and devote the majority of your bankroll to your top selections.

Yup, devoting a set amount to each race is a recipe for disaster.

FTFY.

Not so sure. I hate this BC from a fan perspective but from a wagering perspective I think there is a lot of opportunity. The dirt horses will all be overbet. A horse like Ventura will beat Indian Blessing at 2-4 times the odds. Carriage Trail will beat Ginger Punch, Music Note, and Cocoa Beach at longer odds. Lot of money to be won betting against the dirt horses that show no reason to like synthetics.

As for the How should dollars be allocated, i know for myself, i am only wagering a small amount on saturday, maybe a few pick 3 and both pick 4 and thats it, i will not go crazy because of the surface, rather just go make my bets and enjoy the races.
IMO Indian Blessing is as much of a lock as Zenyatta, so maybe start the day keying her and going 5-5 around her, 25 ticket for a buck, could offer some value, Zatfig will surly be bet, and you should get 8-5, maybe 2-1 on Indian Blessing

I think Cocoa Beach is showing that she likes the Pro RIde

Your best advice in this thread is to ignore everything you just read here.

She supposedly had a nice work and is a factor underneath but we already know that both Carriage Trail and Zenyatta are much better on synthetics than she was on dirt so tough to see her moving up to do better than third.

Zaftig is running in the F&M Sprint? If so, that's a ballsy spot off the injuries.

Carriage Trail likes keenland, that does not mean she will like Pro Ride. Correct ?

Why, explain why to him... because i would rather single Indian Blessing at a decent price, rather then Zenyatta at 1-5 vs by far the best group of horses she has ever faced

you and everyones mother will be doing an all/all/zenyata and it will pay about 5 cents.

MY POINT.
but a Indian Blessing-5-5 offers some value, for only 25

Unless a horse has started over this surface how can you send in any legitiment bet? A sad day in horseracing

Shhh... She may be at the top of the board.

What about more specifics?? The Guaranteed Pick 4's????

JMO, but I think the "grass breeding = synthetic success" argument is wildly overplayed.

I treat it as a third surface, somewhere in between dirt and turf, so I don't really take breeding into account. That, of course, makes it difficult to bet synthetic races, which is why I generally stay away unless the runners have experience over the track.

you don't want a really weak speed horse that is going to quit with the least bit of difficulty , but this ain't Keeneland. It isn't exactly two turf courses...
Keeneland's main track may actually be harder on route speed than it's turf course. I don't know that speed is a death sentence here.

I think you have to get on calracing and watch the allowance races at the distances, and you have to pay close mind to the surface this weekend.

This surface is playing completely different than the synthetics we've all come to hate.

Mainly cause you never bet a favorite/all/all unless you are completely against the top choices in the other two legs. If you think the favorites have a chance then you'll lose money. If you want to be a chalk eater and bet a favorite then just throw all your money on it unless you are confident the chalk will lose in the other two legs in which case it shouldn't be an all bet, you should be dropping those favorites.

Two cents from deep in the peanut gallery:

Maybe you guys are over-thinking the surface angle. You're psyching yourselves out. You would think this "how-he-takes-to-the-track" nonsense is the only factor in winning a race. If a jockey rams his ride up another horses ass and behind a wall of three others to finish eighth, everyone will hollar, "he didn't like the surface at all." But is that really the case? Everyone is talking about this synthetic surface like the Breeder's Cup is being run over broken glass on the moon. If anything, I'll try and find a reason a 15/1 might "take to the track" and emerge from the chaos of these fifteen horse stampedes, and try and find some of those big payouts you mentioned -- not why some favorite won't.

Dean,

A lot of these jocks havent ridden this surface either. This surface will have everything to do with results

How, pray tell, do you intend on doing this, specifically? Thnx

Well, dammit! That's what I'm still trying to figure out.

Listen, I'm way back here in the peanut gallery. I'm holding a ROI figure that's fallen below the handicapping equivalent of the Mendoza Line these past few months. I'm a cooler. Don't even read my ****. It's bad for your game to even lay eyes on the garbage I've typed. Carry on with your surface obsessing.