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-   -   Curlin didn't look invincible... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24805)

sdjcom 08-30-2008 06:53 PM

Curlin didn't look invincible...
 
A slow last quarter, just beat a speedball by 1 lenght and lug out a little, and looked dead-tired after race, I thought it was replay of Haskell except BB won by 3 lenghts, what do you think DT'ers

hrfan 08-30-2008 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
A slow last quarter, just beat a speedball by 1 lenght and lug out a little, and looked dead-tired after race, I thought it was replay of Haskell except BB won by 3 lenghts, what do you think DT'ers

He's not anywhere close to invincible, if he was why not run in the BCC ?

Merlinsky 08-30-2008 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
A slow last quarter, just beat a speedball by 1 lenght and lug out a little, and looked dead-tired after race, I thought it was replay of Haskell except BB won by 3 lenghts, what do you think DT'ers

Actually BB only won by 1 3/4 lengths.....not that anyone's counting... except the Thoroughbred Times, and the DRF, and...well, my eyeballs.

I think it'd be hilarious if they both make the Clark and both lose. I think there's more of an argument to be made of BB's form having not progressed and Curlin being less than fit. It's gonna be harder to get the former to change than the latter. It's entirely possible I suppose that both are off their game. Is anybody running a final quarter with any speed these days? I'm trying to figure out who it is so I can guess who's gonna sneak in the back door on these jokers. How'd Colonel John and Go Between come in? I got the impression those too were not the quickest.

cowgirlintexas 08-30-2008 08:40 PM

Perhaps Assman is trying not to squeeze all the j"uice outta the lemon" so to speak.. :rolleyes: and... save something in the tank for the next race..Which will most likely be his last.

sdjcom 08-30-2008 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cowgirlintexas
Perhaps Assman is trying not to squeeze all the j"uice outta the lemon" so to speak.. :rolleyes: and... save something in the tank for the next race..Which will most likely be his last.

Curlin was all out to win, no saving any gas in the tank here.

sdjcom 08-30-2008 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Who said Curlin was invincible?

nobody, the statement was in a question form to start a discussion.

sdjcom 08-30-2008 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Curlin looked short to me. I'm not sure how cranked he was, but I find it hard to believe today's race was his "A" race. Maybe his form is in decline, or the turf start took a lot out of him, or the trip to Dubai is taking it's toll. Who knows, but I don't think Asmussen would change spots with anyone right now.

I agree, but I feel he just had an off day.

VOL JACK 08-31-2008 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom
I agree, but I feel he just had an off day.

Curlin just seems like the type that is just gonna run as fast as he has to, to win the race.
It was a good race if the track was as speed biased as I think it might have been. NY tracks have a way doing that before the big races, as we have all seen. I thought after the first race the track was gonna be a tiring surface. Then watching the 2 stakes it looked like Monmouth.

CSC 08-31-2008 08:45 AM

Curlin was there for the taking yesterday, he ran his eyeballs out to just squeak by a 40-1 shot that set contested fast fractions, someone questioned me why I kept posting I was going to try to beat Curlin yesterday, I think the answer was clear yesterday, at .35 to the dollar he was life and death to get up yesterday. My mind hasn't changed that's 2 average performances in a row for Curlin since coming back from Dubai. Whether he doesn't like Saratoga, or the turf. It wasn't the same Curlin I have seen prior Dubai.

Thunder Gulch 08-31-2008 08:57 AM

I agree with a lot of you here. Whether he was a little short or not, he just didn't have the same explosion we want to see from him. Has anyone ever come back from the Dubai trip with the same horse? That trip just seems to bring a lot of champions down from their pinnacle on the way home.

CSC 08-31-2008 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
I agree with a lot of you here. Whether he was a little short or not, he just didn't have the same explosion we want to see from him. Has anyone ever come back from the Dubai trip with the same horse? That trip just seems to bring a lot of champions down from their pinnacle on the way home.

I think that Dubai 'curse' is at times coincidental, however I agree he didn't win like a 3/10 shot should with the set up he got. Still we have seen what the Spa usually does to champions, Ginger Punch also got up mostly on will, and Curlin did the same yesterday.

ArlJim78 08-31-2008 12:05 PM

i think its way after the fact to blame dubai. he looked sharp in his first outing after dubai, the one in KY where Einstein was second.

with that said, he does seem to be on the decline for whatever reason.

dalakhani 08-31-2008 12:10 PM

Tough Crowd. Everything played against Curlin yesterday. He gets banged into pretty good by Divine Park. Then the dynamics of the race didnt help. Past the Point may have been 40-1 but he didnt run like it. He ran his eyeballs out. Him setting those fractions and being that far out in front forced Curlin to start his move well before the turn. That was a long move to sustain.

Pletny of excuses for him to lose and he won. Not a great performance but certainly a good one.

Quiet Chris 08-31-2008 12:12 PM

The horse is not invincible. Commentator probably would have beaten him yesterday, except for the fact that Commentator might have not shown up.

Curlin's JCGC will be the real test to see what he is made of. They have been shipping him around the world and changing surfaces on him all year.

The horse is clearly the best dirt horse in the world though. There doesn't appear to be anyone out there that can take him in a 10f dirt race.

TheSpyder 08-31-2008 12:17 PM

Great horses don't always win by open lengths..Check the Champions book. He ran a good race and I don't think he was short, I think just enough was asked of him to win.

Spyder

dalakhani 08-31-2008 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quiet Chris
The horse is not invincible. Commentator probably would have beaten him yesterday, except for the fact that Commentator might have not shown up.
Curlin's JCGC will be the real test to see what he is made of. They have been shipping him around the world and changing surfaces on him all year.

The horse is clearly the best dirt horse in the world though. There doesn't appear to be anyone out there that can take him in a 10f dirt race.

I have to agree with Dahoss here. That first paragraph is classic.

Almost as good as "my aunt probably could have been my uncle except she might not have a d i c k".

the_fat_man 08-31-2008 12:24 PM

I see that we're making assumptions again based on numbers without considering the race dynamics. They went, essentially, 1-2 around the track in fast fractions, there were ZERO moves in the race, and Curlin came from off the pace to run down the speed. Anyone who thinks this wasn't impressive really needs to get on a bike, get on the track, and try it out. Try chasing a fast pace and then running the leader down on your own. This might radically alter one's perception of trips.

Cannon Shell 08-31-2008 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I see that we're making assumptions again based on numbers without considering the race dynamics. They went, essentially, 1-2 around the track in fast fractions, there were ZERO moves in the race, and Curlin came from off the pace to run down the speed. Anyone who thinks this wasn't impressive really needs to get on a bike, get on the track, and try it out. Try chasing a fast pace and then running the leader down on your own. This might radically alter one's perception of trips.

Please spare me the bike riding crap. So now sitting 4th behind a rapid pace set by inferior horses on a seemingly fair track ISNT a good trip? So if they go too slow on the front we can blame a slow pace but if they go too fast we can blame a fast pace? He won because the 3 horse couldnt run the last eighth in 13.20.

Coach Pants 08-31-2008 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I see that we're making assumptions again based on numbers without considering the race dynamics. They went, essentially, 1-2 around the track in fast fractions, there were ZERO moves in the race, and Curlin came from off the pace to run down the speed. Anyone who thinks this wasn't impressive really needs to get on a bike, get on the track, and try it out. Try chasing a fast pace and then running the leader down on your own. This might radically alter one's perception of trips.

I recently participated in a 5k and was trying to close on a fast pace. Needless to say things didn't go according to plan...


Coach Pants 08-31-2008 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Why is all of the s hit in the front? Shouldn't it be in the back?

I'm not very knowledgeable in bowel dynamics. Ask fatty.

pgardn 08-31-2008 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Why is all of the s hit in the front? Shouldn't it be in the back?

Inside those pants are smaller pants to hold
parts in place. He squirts and it dribbles out where
his legs open up places for the sludge to leak.

He has plenty of stuff in the back also.


Fatman needs to try and run and get off the bike.
On a bike when you stop moving your legs you can still
move forward. Cant do that running.

Coach Pants 08-31-2008 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I wonder what that guy ate.

Curlin's premium summer blend oats.

pgardn 08-31-2008 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I wonder what that guy ate.

That appears to be sludge from energy bars.

DogsUp 08-31-2008 01:52 PM

I will take a win anyday. Good or bad to the eyeballs a win is a win. He might be short or getting off form, but there isn't anyone in the US that can beat him if everything is equal - of course a horse could get lucky and beat him at any given time. I think Curlins' A or A- race is better than any horse's in the US A+ race.

fpsoxfan 08-31-2008 02:00 PM

Just to address a few things on here:

Curlin: I thought the race was a little bit of a letdown in that I wanted to see
Curlin just blow these away. It wasn't visually impressive, but he did
what he needed to do to win a 500,000 Grade 1 Race. What's the
excuse for a few others in this race. A.P. Arrow has been a big
disappointment. Nice race by the place horse.

The Runner: Why would he keep going with that all over him? Is it
possible that's a case of a shart gone wild?

Cannon Shell 08-31-2008 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Isn't the point that he won? You should know as well as anyone here that horses don't fire their best every single time. So he ran a subpar race and won the Woodward. Maybe he's tailing off. But he has never been an invincible horse. He's just really good and since there are only a handful (maybe) of really good horses in training we expect them to show it everytime. And while I don't agree necessarily agree with Lance Armstrong's take, Curlin's trip was a bit trickier than you are suggesting.

Sure he won but to describe his trip as a tough one is hardly realistic. He was floated wide in the first turn but had clear sailing after that. He did not finish very strong and certainly this effort, though winning, was not up to par though the Beyer numbers will lead you to believe that it was typical. And if they are going to run this horse six times this year then I do expect him to be up to par everytime.

dalakhani 08-31-2008 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Sure he won but to describe his trip as a tough one is hardly realistic. He was floated wide in the first turn but had clear sailing after that. He did not finish very strong and certainly this effort, though winning, was not up to par though the Beyer numbers will lead you to believe that it was typical. And if they are going to run this horse six times this year then I do expect him to be up to par everytime.

Chuck-

Is it fair to say that he didnt finish strong because he had to start his run much earlier than he would have liked thus taking a little starch out in the last furlong?

Cannon Shell 08-31-2008 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Chuck-

Is it fair to say that he didnt finish strong because he had to start his run much earlier than he would have liked thus taking a little starch out in the last furlong?

No. i cant believe that knowledge people are calling this a tough trip? They didnt go 44.2, they went 46.20. How hard did he have to run to catch them? The went the last 3/8 in 40 seconds and he made up 6 lengths in that span. Is that good? Using that theory Past the Point was far superior to everyone because he started his run in the first turn and only lost by a length. using a rough estimate Curlin ran his first 6 furlongs in close to 110.4 to 111. Why should he be tired after that? Maybe he was short or not right but this was not a great effort and that is using his prior efforts as a measuring stick.

Cannon Shell 08-31-2008 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
You expect a lot in this day and age.

Where exactly was the problem with his trip? I expect my stars to finish faster than 40 seconds for the last 3 furlongs and faster than 14 seconds for the last 1/8th. Especially with tiring leaders that are backing up in front of him and without a straw in his path and without having to worry about moving too soon and getting caught from behind. I guess i ask too much.

SentToStud 08-31-2008 02:32 PM

Tricky trips are always a challenge. Much llike sneaky good trips.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=e7mmrF-4rUE

Cannon Shell 08-31-2008 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Where did I say he had a rough trip? I said it was a bit trickier than you mentioned. By no means was it tough, but TFM was correct in saying that Curlin was essentially the only horse to make a move. I'm not a horse whisperer, so I don't know why he didn't bring his "A" game yesterday. But, if I had to guess, I think he's tired. From what I have no idea, maybe the trip to Dubai, who knows. I just don't know what your point is. Yeah, the Curlin that ran yesterday is multiple lengths slower than the one we saw in Dubai. No sh it. He's a star by today's standards, but not an all time great. No sh it.

TFM said his move was impressive. I disagreed. His race was substandard yet I keep hearing how just winning matters, the race was tougher than it looked, the speed figures came back good. If Georgia(the number 1 team) beat Georgia Southern(subpar opponent) yesterday with a last second field goal I sure that we be talking about how poorly Georgia played instead of how great of a kick it was to win the game.


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