Journeyman Handicapper Question Bel 8th
 

Sorry this is late in the day, not trying to redboard, but since I am announcing a loss I guess I am safe.

I played the 4,6,7,8 ex box in this turf race.... race ran 4,5

This is the time of year when we are alerted to be on the lookout for rapidly improving three year olds, and my assessment was that the 4 had every indication of being just that. I won't bore you with the rest of my race analysis but in broad terms I thought that at least one of the more experienced, stakes and graded stakes tested horses would be in the mix. I used the 8 on the very acceptable race at 1 1/4, cutting back off a layoff with Dynaformer and McGaughey

Before anyone offer "dude, the 5 was Giant's Causeway", I know, but he was Pletcher who for me has been a bet against, and had won only a minor allowance.

Any insights? The 4 was much the best, but what can I learn from the way this pace played out or any other clues among the other contender's that they were not up to the test.... thx

I look at it this way

there were TWO and ONLY TWO horses in the race capable of outrunning a POODLE going 9F: Willsboro Point and Dynhocracy.

WP figured to have the lead all to himself. Dynhocracy, was put in a SEVERE STRANGLEHOLD by SAMYN before even leaving the gate. How anyone continues to ride this idiot is beyond me. At least let the horse SETTLE before trying to restrain it. Needless to say, after being CHOKED OUT for most of the race, the horse wasn't in the mood to run.

Now, the same connections that thought Buffalo Man could go 9F against Pays to Dream also thought that Run Sully Run could get that xtra 1/6th today. NEGATIVE. He tops out at 8.5F. Of course, I'm sure they were thrilled when Prado, doing his best imitation of a ****** these days, decided to take him to the lead. I'm sure this thrilled his backers (9:5 on this plug?:zz: ) It probably tickled the **** out of Coa as well, who certainly must've enjoyed bending Prado over and getting a very nice trip. (btw, WP was never wide in his last race, enjoying a nice 2 path trip)

As for why Polo Argentina ran 2nd? Well, Big Al ran third. In other words, there was nothing else in the race and PA just happened to be there when RSR and Grasberg collapsed.

Hope this clears it up for you.:rolleyes:

Listen man, when you have a few LOW IQ types riding or training, it becomes all the more difficult to make sense of what happens.

The 5 did have a pretty nice trip - saved ground, good position etc... which may have helped him a little. He also may have fit your improving 3 year-old angle with the way he won first time vs. winners after breaking his maiden. I didn't bet the race and probably wouldn't have used the 5 either (I'm playing against every Pletcher horse until further notice) - but you could certainly have made a case for him. Pretty evenly matched field (except the winner's last beyer sticks out if you believe in them on turf). I wouldn't get too caught up with this race or beat yourself up about not using the 2nd place horse. The only horse that may be worth watching for next time is Big Al as he closed pretty well with a bit of a pace disadvantage vs. the 1st and 2nd place finishers. More importantly, though, don't exacta box four horses.

I don't think Prado wanted his horse on the lead - looks like he pulled him to the front.

good stuff.

Thanks.... I'll take that as an indication
 

that my assessment of the race was not completely misguided... class, and judging various stakes and graded stakes races when a horse has run 2nd, or 3rd, within a length or two of the winner is tricky....how good are they really? The experience factor to understand where where they have run and against who when their Beyer ranges are in the same general ballpark... which takes us back to the original issue of improving 3 year olds vs older horses...again thanks for the insight.

I/L :)

Formulator helps a lot with the turf class stuff.

I know, I know....
 

In contentious races where the prices are there...I do it.. I do struggle to resist it, but don't box more that 3 probably 75% of the time....

I/L

I was trying to figure out what the heck was going on there.
Samyn was practically leaning backwards restraining the 7.

The horse uses all his energy while being restrained at the beginnning
of the race when he needs to loosen up a bit before being asked
to race in a tactical manner. Its seems it is a much easier task to control
a horse that has gotten the jitters out and run a bit.

I really did not get that ride.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:



:rolleyes:

you took the words right out of my mouth......

Seems to me that his analysis of the race was fairly accurate. I might not have used words like ******, which I find particularly offensive and childish, but he described what happened in the race pretty much perfectly.

The inaccuracies in the chart calls are helping those that do their work, and hurting those that aren't, as comments like " rough trip " for Run Sully Run's race two back are deceptive....to be nice. He pretty much had a perfect trip that day.

If you watch races, it can get very frustrating watching jocks that hurt rather than aid the horse. Samyn is just about the worst at trying to rate (restrain) a horse. Other jocks, Desormeaux would be the perfect example, are able to rate while still allowing the horse to fully stride out. The horse is striding out, just not at the speed it wants to. In this way, the horse is restrained YET comfortable/relaxed.

Samyn restrains a horse to the extent that it's unable to stride out completely/comfortably. He has such a tight hold on the horse's head that it's a strain for the horse to move and it uses EXTRA energy in doing so. A good example of this would be Emma's Candy, running tomorrow. In her last race, the filly is not only wide but she's basically JUMPING on the backstretch as she tries to get a full stride out. As a result, though she puts in a decent run in the stretch, she collapses late. Samyn needs to discover a looser rein. Give the horse enough of its head to have a chance to run when it counts.

hes not that strong anymore.[.its not all jockeys fat man ..i had no problem with the winner in this case ..and thought the 1/10 moved abit late or they would have easily been part of the exacta.. as for the j s .. its much harder to hold a horse back with some constent smooth tention..ie a shock absorber ..vs holding on with wieght ..

I just disagree that "trip handicapping" is everything especially when horses off layoffs are completely ignored especially when you see that a horse over an 12-18 month period is developing and may have made enough of a forward move to be competitive in a field where previously they were not. Statements like 2 horses in a field are capable of winning are proven wrong time and time again.

Describing the ride of a racehorse like it handles with the precision of a sports car does not accurately respect the unknown response of the animal on that day. There are more variables to use and respect than is described here.

A combination of speed or race figures, film, field size and class and cycle of the horse not to mention early speed and closing ability are essentially the equation and there is no substitute or short cut for most races. Sometimes you see things on film as I did yesterday with "Roll the Di", othertimes it may be the slope of the TGH curve of development for a lightly raced horse etc, etc.

Tape is nice but it is one piece of a more complicated puzzle.

We get it: trips aren't comprehensive for you. Then again, since you're essentially clueless to anything but an obvious trip, why would it matter to me? But thanks for stopping by and repeating yourself.:)

Moreover, how many bows are you going to take for picking a 7:2 shot? A 7:2 shot that I caught at 12:1 her previous race by tripping?

Nothing personal.

I liked being eliminated 5 seconds into the race due to Samyn's stranglehold. The least he could do was give me a 5% chance of hitting the board.

You post this crap about how "knowlegeable" you are here but I don't see alot of cashed tickets here Fatman!! You've got nothing else to do but sit home pigging out staring at races on your free California Racing account while you "imagine" jockeys thoughts and intentions day after day and you post these BS evaluations after the races are over and you want accolades for Red Boarding races day in and day out. Pace Advantage has rooms full of guys like you or were you outed there as well.

Go ahead Fats post a 10-1 ML winner the night before the race is run like the last one I put up and maybe I'll tell you that you know something but as long as your posting BS about how every jockey in the NY colony is a stiff and how you know the proper truth about how to ride these animals your nothing
but a fraud who hasn't shown bupcus for all the garbage your flinging here these last few months.

Nice call on the Bishop last week Fat's......didn't hear much about that 4-1 ML loser after the fact. You want to pound your chest about winners you predict you might have to actually post one before the race Red Board Geek.

And oh yeah......It is completely personal!!!!!

The Fat Man has posted a bunch of winners here and has sent me quite a few by PM. Plus, his charts and posts demonstrate a huge understanding of the game. His obnoxiousness does not obscure his tremendous knowledge.

What prices horses are in the ML is irrelevent. All that matters is what they pay when you bet your money.

That is certainly open to debate but I am glad to see he has your love and devotion. I have never seen you express such obvious affection for someone and their thoughts here.

I appreciate your support.

What I appreciate even more, however, is that you're around to lend some 'credibility' to my take on the game. It gets tough arguing the obvious without much chance of consensus. Agreement from you is assurance that I'm on the right track.

Below are my comments from the Bishop's Back thread. Where exactly do I pick him?

posted 6/16 by me

posted 7/03 by me

Isn't it 'obvious' that I DON'T like the horse?
Try again, Doofus.

Make a play that wins or shut your pie hole or cookie dough hole or whatever it is your stuffing past the drool from your orifice this AM. Post a winner here glutton goon....PM are just that Private Misses....and yeah your comments on Roll the Di didn't make it here somehow "last time was the time to play here IMO".....

Post a winner BEFORE the race low life.....that's how the game works Jabba!!

You can debate whatever you like but anyone that doesn't see that the Fat Man works tirelessly to develop a keen understanding of the game is either biased or mistaken.

But, you have an agenda that blocks you, as evidenced by calling my obvious respect for him " love and devotion. " I get it, you're like a spurned schoolboy who's crush has been denied. Get over it.

Point well taken .....Future comments on the subject will not reflect the previous tone or gutter talk.


Perhaps we could use the previous emotion to document explanations of winning plays to further the cause here rather than focusing on the participants.....

I've already posted enough winners, DOUCHE. You'd know that if you took the time to look rather than just trying to get my attention all the time.

Problem is that YOU need MY attention

while

I could basically give a **** what you think

why is that, I wonder?

Maybe because you're just another clueless **** on the internet that just must be heard.

I'm going to add you to my iggy bin where you can join the ever growing list of idiots that can't wait till I post something so that they can respond; while, I DON'T SEE THEM.

lol. great thread.

For the record, only one poster on this thread has ever pm'd me about any horse. you know who you are.

I'm not quite feeling the level of love I'd like to see.

In the past week Fat Man has posted GooGoo eyes (13.80) and Sophies Salad(7.80) If you put Phi Beta Mom (BTW"s pick)under GooGooeyes you got a 98.00 dollar exacta. Obviously Fat Man does his homework especially on the turf. I for one am glad that he shares it.You dont have to agree with him but should definitely pay attention to his analysis. KP

OMG I am just seeing this now......you are far sicker than I previously thought. I hope you get the help you need. You have greatly misjudged how important your opinion is to me. Good Luck to you Fatman I am all out of negativity to participate in this nonsense any further. So back to the racing.....

No matter how distasteful a poster might be,
it is seems perfectly reasonable that posters who
spend a lot of time watching horses and trying to
analyze are, "have to read posters". Just because
the passion sometimes comes in the form of calling
you an idiot (that would be me, the idiot), does not mean you cannot still learn something from them.

I am the king of double negatives

They make for excellent reading and thats a lot of what
makes this board a really good place.

I'll pm you when Retama opens T-breds in the fall.

I am sure you will appreciate a handicapper of crappy horses.
Be advised that the feature race will be Clm 7,000 nW2L on the
BIG nights.