Bridge jumper on Zenyatta
 

200k in the last minute into the show pool

whoever did it just made 10k

Would 10K actually be worth the agony of watching the race having
200K to lose...

Christ. Guess it is exciting to know one has that much to lose,
and so little to gain.

What a perfectly horrible bet.

I dont know...I reserve horrible bet status for the ones that actually lose.

Regardless of how tight it was, the guy won 10k.

assuming he's in the 28% tax bracket, he actually bet $200,000 to win $7200.

This person put that bet up in the last minute.
So this person probably drastically changes the show pool size
which this person(s) would hopefully realized. So I guess they
are banking on some bad horses to come in along with their "winner"

But since the payout is the minimum, the other two horses in
the money most likely were horses that should have been at least close
to "in the money horses" as viewed by the public. Or they just did not
look at the show pool size before they bet.

I guess I see that as a perfectly horrible bet.
A less than 5% profit risking 200K... God help me.

I am a before the outcome is known kinda fella.

This betting entity had 200K; just pay Vito the grand for Christ sakes.

All fallacies in my reasoning appreciated...

Of which he will bet tomorrow, and (right away) give up a minimum of 15%.

I dont think anyone would accuse me of redboarding when i say that I predicted Zenyatta would at least come in third today. As a matter of fact, I predict she comes in no worse than third in any race she runs in this year. But, we are only discussing today's race so that doesnt matter.

One couldnt bet her to win at 1/9 (which is what she was until the last tick) because at that price you might as well bet to show.

Basically, with the field and race set up, you are betting against injury. That was all that was going to keep Zenyatta from finishing in the money today.

Is Bridge jumping a horrible bet? I think under the right circumstances, bridge jumping is a great way to make a profit.

Yes I understand betting to show instead of win.
But my gosh, I just dont see making the bet at all.

And I have seen many situations where you are betting
against extraordinary circumstances, injury, etc...

I just dont see making the bet at all. If you are desperate to
pay Vito the mobster his grand, you got 200K to adequately take
care of that. I guess its a risk v. reward assessment that I cannot
fathom.

Ahhh, maybe some guy owed a grand and had a rich buddy he did
not want to ask for money, just borrow and returned the same day.

I'm guessing even Zenyatta will fail to come top 3 once every 10-15 times. To make this bet a winning proposition, horses like her have to come top 3 atleast 21 times in a row.

I'm curious as to how one would make a 200,000$ bet. Do you have 200,000 sitting in an ADW account, or 200,000 in cash that you hand to a teller?

Do you really think he/she is going to declare it?

If she keeps racing, Zenyatta will find a day when she is just not up to competing at the level where she is placed by her connections. But isnt finding that day part of handicapping as is finding days where only catastrope will stop her?

I like a price just like any other handicapper but free money is free money. Yes, the guy "only" got 5% on his money but he got 5% tax free (unless he is dumb honest) in a matter of less than two minutes and there was never a time during that race where she wasnt going to be in the money.

In that particular race yesterday, what was the percentage of chance she was going to be in the money vs. the return? In that sense, it was a fine bet.

Do you know why this is incorrect?

Never thought I'd see the day where bridgejumping was defended on Derby Trail.

no sh*t...shouldn't this just be combined with Fischers thread?

It is if you are laundering money, which is often really what a bridge jumper is.

Aha.

Thank you.
That would make sense.

I wonder how they layed the 200K down in the first place?
question was already posted...

I always wondered what would stop a teller from bridge jumping.

I can't believe that we haven't yet heard of a story of a teller making 150K in show bets for himself - and running to his car and driving off after he loses.

It would seem like an easier thing to do than rob a bank....that's for sure.

You do hear a lot about tellers losing thousands and even as much as $17K betting.

Usually you do an account....probably vegas at a sports book....i don't think they would punch you a $200,000 ticket with 1MP if you gave them a duffle bag of money.

They can put up to four $250 bets on one ticket.

at 1K a ticket - it wouldn't take but two minutes to punch 100K worth of tickets on a horse.

Instead of closing your mind to it altogehter and dismissing it as amatuerish, wouldnt it be better to understand the logic and statistics on a particular bet first?

Interesting how the disucssion includes "how much" for "how little" and the validity of the logic behind such a bet.

Eric

what statistics?

What logic?

Personally i think the risk was minimal and paid handsomely in regards to the amount of the risk.

Basically he risked 200k that a horse would not get injured for an instant 5% return that is tax free.

Granted not all bridgejumping scenarios are like this. There are plenty of odds on bets that are horrible bridge jumping plays.

But to dismiss any and all bridge jumping bets as bad is closeminded in my opinion.

Jesus.

What mind?

you know. all winning bets are smart after that fact. that logic.

Therein lies the key to this whole thread.

$200,000 in $100 bills is a stack about two feet high.

I suppose you can punch the tickets, but how do you count the money in a minute, or 5 minutes?

I've seen several VERY controversial DQ's involving bridgejumped horses over the last two years.

Someone bet over 150K to show Nicole's Dream in a small stake at Mountaineer. She won in hand by 8 or 9 in course record time but was DQ'd for a phantom call.

Proud Spell was DQ'd just last week. She needed only to beat two mediocre allowance horses.

Outcashem - who had won something like 12 races in a row - was DQ'd in a hapless starter allowance race at Timonium that led to blockbuster show payoffs.

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

I would think it would be a situation where the bettor would talk to a manager hours in advance of making the bet.

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

No show betting in the Proud Spell race.

Outcashem...again, the race was in a bull ring at a fair that runs for about a week. Who in their right mind would bridge jump in such a situation?

I didnt see the Nicole's dream race, but I believe what you say. Its mountaineer. I live near charlestown and stuff like that happens all the time at smaller tracks (although they tend to swallow the whistle a little more at charlestown).

Again, im not saying one should make a living bridge jumping. Im just saying, they can be pretty darn good bets if you pick your spots.

don't you need to know the answer to those questions first before taking a stand on whether or not its a wise wager?

Place pool:

1 - $5,931
2 - $149,445 - Proud Spell
3 - $7,169
4 - $13,217

Yeah, and that is such a great bet? What are the statistics behind that bet? How often does that win? What percentage would you have to hit in order for that to be profitable for YOU? And just because your bet is a good one (and im not saying its not) what makes the bridge jumper's bet so stupid?

Not to mention that the percentage of odds-on favorites that finish in the money has to be way less than 99%.