BEL p6 (NTamm hits $10k on $480 play!)
 

was def. taking friday off, but with the huge carryover and 2 friends who want to go into with me, i almost feel obligated to take a stab at such a big pool, well we just got done handicapping, here is what we came up with

1,2,3/2,5,10/1,2,3,4,/1,3/2,5/3,4,5,8,10

good luck

Here are some thoughts on the sequence:

Race 4

DOREMIFASOLLATIDO is as close to a single as you're going to get on the whole card. This gal was bet hard first time out and ran a very strong race. Considering how much James Jerkens trainees move up with experience, she should roll here. The only one who I'd give a chance to is #2 NOT A PEEP, who's by an A+ debut sire and an unraced mare.

Race 5

The most wide-open event by far. I detest ADMIRAL BIRD and would never use him on any tickets as he's likely to suck up a ton of money and disappoint once again. GOOD PROSPECT is a tad interesting as he was horribly spotted after winning a N2X last summer. He's back at that level again and Leah G is working him sharply. Both of the old-timers QUANTUM MERIT and CONTINENTAL REINS seem to be rounding into form but are obviously YEARS removed from anything positive. MY MAN LARS is returning off a break but Weaver is solid with these types and this guy ran into some sharp horses last year and encountered trouble just about every time he went to the post. He's going to be 15-1 or more and will kill many Pick 6 tickets.

Race 6

This is a two-horse race. CAESAR BEWARE and KING RUSH. The former was overbet last time out after winning with a very good trip in late May. He should rebound today if Coa can save a bit of ground since there's plenty of cheap speed. KING RUSH looked like the winner just outside the eighth pole last time out then flattened out a bit but that was a considerably stronger field than this

Race 7

I would never, ever use BARONESS THATCHER here who is a hanger that hates to win. She was lifeless last time out while seriously regressing off the strong effort on Derby day. She should bounce back here but would have to improve a ton to contend for the win. The same goes for LOOKY YONDER who is going to move back significantly after running two top figures. RITE MOMENT, WILD GAMS, and ANY LIMIT can all win in my opinion and even WINDY deserves a shot at a price as her trainer scored with a runner off a long layoff on Wednesday who had sharp workouts at the Spa.

Race 8

They're all running to beat LUCKY ISLAND here who has found lasix to be a wonder drug. He was the easiest of winners against a crappy field in the Bold Ruler, but it was his third straight authoritative performance. Kiaran McLaughlin is very good when he has his horses pointed to one particular race and that's what he's done here. The speed should come from NOT FOR MONEY and/or TASTEYVILLE but the former got away with murder in the opening quarter-mile last time out and the latter has freaked twice on the goo. I'd be more inclined to take Tasteyville if you don't trust Lucky Island completely.

Race 9

E Z DOLLAR wouldn't be the worst longshot throw-in as she has a bit of turf breeding and is going 2nd off the layoff for John Hertler. SHAAMI has been a terrible disappointment but may have found her way last time, LAURIE'S LION should be moving swiftly early and UNBRIDLED REFRAIN can move forward coming back quickly for HAJ.

My ticket: 3 / 1,3,4,7,10,11 / 4,8 / 2,4,6,7 / 2 / 3,5,7,8,10

Good luck!

NT

4th and 6th, you will be lucky to get through. 6th is more like a 4 horse race, and jerkens horse could cruise, but i doubt it, im using the 1 but like the 2 and 3 better

I'm hard pressed to figure out what you like about L'OISEAU D'ARGENT aside from maybe having made money on him years ago?

Not only is he a horse who notoriously ran poorly off layoffs, he's running at a distance where he was never successful, he has no chance to get the lead, has the rail and only has three spread out workouts over a seven week period. And with all that he's probably going to be the third or fourth choice!?!

Along that line, I want no part of MAD BOB CAT who is almost certainly going to be short off the long layoff and one work. This very clearly seems like a tune-up for a restricted N2X for NY breds.

As far as the Jerkens horse I see that as a race that's easy to overthink. J. Jerkens is having a terrific meet and his horses move up A TON 2nd time out.

NT

you know what...
GOOD LUCK, I HOPE YOU HIT IT
also if i was using horses, just cause i cashed on them, i would use the 8 in the 6th, i crushed that horse last time out at 18-1 or something close to that

IM confused about the 6th also, your going 6 deep 6 DEEP, BUT you dont have the 2 most likely winners, explain that strategy ?

I said that the two most likely winners were #4 CAESAR BEWARE and #8 KING RUSH, the two I put on my ticket.

I went six deep in the fifth, which I said is the most wide-open leg.

Good luck!

NT

When he ran 4th?

NT

my bad, i mean the 5th, your 6 deep, and you dont have the 2 horses who are most likely to win, how did you come up with that ?

victourious affair
do i have my races mixed up ?

I thought I explained myself well, but who are you considering the two most likely winners, DOC N ROLL and THUNDER MINISTER? You can have them both. Doc beat two tragically bad fields in his last two and Thunder Minister capitalized when the field in his last race collapsed.

NT

you did explain but i disagree, 6 deep in there is a waste, your using some horses that are close to impossible

And i am just restricted.........and innocent of all charges.

:tro: :tro: :tro:




then



:D :

A classic! Kudos!

You took the words right out of my mouth.

Bump-----I beleive this thread is being ignored due to the author but Good Luck NT-------Alive to 5 horses in the P6

hopefully he played it, wow

guess that DQ helped someone out.

Hell of a score and a kick in the nuts stretch run in the last race.... about a 34K difference

congrats

-bt-

I hope he played it, too. . . but I think it was carrying to the 7.

Thanks for all the support, all. Sometimes a blind squirrel find a nut in the forest.

I came home from an office 4th of July party to a lovely surprise.

Happy 4th of July!

NT

Congrats Nick on a great analysis and ticket.... And you actually killed two birds with the proverbial one stone... :tro:

Great Job, Congrats!

N Tamm..


First of all we would like to congratulate you. Although you hit the pick 6, we have concluded that you were "lucky" in doing so. See...if you are not aware, we are the finest handicappers the internet has to offer. Here is where we concluded you made your mistake on your ticket:

We feel you spent too much on your ticket. We also hit this pick 6 today, but we were able to do so on a $4 ticket. We almost had it narrowed down to a straight $2 ticket, but there was a small disagreement amongst us, so we decided to go two deep in one of the races. Hind sight being what it is (thats 20/20 in case you are unaware), we really feel you could have saved yourself $476 dollars. See, now with that $476, we have enough of a bankroll to play pick 4's for the remainder of the year.

We are sure you may be prone to make the same mistake again in the future, but we do hope you can learn from this lesson.


Sincerely,

BBB, ACLU, NAACP, YMCA, AMA, NWO, etc....

Nice work NT.

Congrats.

Well done, young lad.

yes, nice hit, and I never saw a loaf of bread screw anyone before

Great job NT. Congrats!!! :tro:

Congrats. . . very nice score.

Point #1 From the rhetoric you use to other posters when they put up thier analysis of races you post your picks on, you seem to know it all, and the poster in question doesn't know anything. (congrats NT TAMM!!!!)

Point #2 You've posted your pick 4 picks and straight wagers on here and your picks have done very well.

Point #3 You have to have a very large bankroll to play all of the bets which you have posted day after day on this site.

Conclusion: At your age (23) I don't believe you have the funds available to play all the wagers you post on this site (form my calculations, over $1,200 per week), unless you have very rich parents, or your source of income is not of the legal variety.

It's easy to post astronomical plays every day like you do, but to prove that you played every post that you made is another story.

Conclusion #2: Mr Byk, I've had my say after shutting up for 8 months, now you can ban me from this site.

Sayonara.

Unless I'm missing something, you most likely won't get banned for this particular post.

You have to do better than that to get banned. Morty has been trying for months and can't get it done.

You raise some good questions, but they will go unanswered because dude is oblivious.

great job NTamm, you nailed it.

i love the fact that jcs challenged you on the fifth race, claiming you were using impossible horses, then HE gets dumped in that leg by one of your impossible horses. too funny, but so appropriate.

Secret tape of someone we know handicapping a race and making a huge bet.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh32PePVGBs

Nice hit

That is how I felt after Tom Archdeacon decided to fail me for the 3rd time this year :)

Loved the quick shot of the longshot player lighting up with his $$$.