My Bets for Belmont.......Please Help
 

I promise not to start another thread for a while, but I wanted to share the bets I was planning to make for tomorrow. Please tell me why this is either a good selection of bets or bad and any basic mistakes that I am making while I can still correct it.

My budget is $300.00

My picks for now are:

$170.00 – Big Brown to Win

Exacta $20 Big Brown –Denis Of Cork

Trifecta $6 Big Brown – Denis Of Cork – Tale Of Ekati

Across The Board $8 Macho Again
Across The Board $6 Ichabod Crane
Across The Board $10 Casino Drive

Total 300.00

I'm sure I will get hazed pretty bad for doing this but go ahead and fire away. I honestly would appreciate the critique and what you might do different. FYI...I do not want to move off of making Big Brown #1 pick.

Seriously.....any win bet on BIG Brown is not the brightest of ideas.
The horse will be 1/5 or even 1/9. So what can you possibly stand to make betting to win in this situation?

Load up on your exactas, and take a shot.......

If you are going to go to Belmont in person, i would bet a 2.00 ticket on BB and save it....

The $170.00 to win on Big Brown, if he wins you make peanuts (well probably about $30) and if he somehow loses your out $170.00 obviously. Doesn't sound like a good bet to me but what do I know, I make plenty of stupid bets. Why not put $100 to win on Big Brown if you really want to bet him to win, and take the other $70 playing a $35 exacta Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati with Big Brown. That's if you like DofC and ToE. I think Anak Nakal might love the distance and nab a piece as well.

This is a really wasteful way to play. . .

Well based on those responses, and as much as I hate to do it, I guess I won't bet Big Brown to Win. As Wyatt Earp said to Johnny Ringo in the movie Tombstone, "There's no money in it."

Maybe just Exactas and Trifectas? Is that a better strategy? I hate the fact that CD is somewhat injured and makes it hard to factor him.

I wouldn't play it this way but for $144 you could do Big Brown / all / all.

If it were me I'd use him over Macho, Tale of Ekati and Anak over all or something like that, and single him in a Pick 3 or 4.

Anyway, best of luck.

Toss Casino Drive.

Bet a different race.

You could go that way as well and put $200 to win and $100 to place on Dancing Forever in the Manhattan. If I had $300 and was betting one race this is what I would do.

That's a pretty chaotic race and it's probably not on TV.

With the question marks over Big Brown's quarter crack and Casino Drive's stone bruise, I'd suggest passing the race. Just enjoy the spectacle.

I would think it would surely be on tv.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23024

Why would ABC or ESPN want to show a world-class G1 that many of their viewers will have bets on?

Why didn't I think of that? If it was a 5k claimer from Buelah we might have a chance to see it live on tv........:zz:

Show $$$$$
 

Play the field 'to show' minus Big Brown.
That's the only way your going to make any $$$$$$

you like him that much ? i think the race is to wide open to even bet that way. dam maybe i will be confident in your opinion and scale back in that race

you are crazy if you don't back that up a little. i think dennis of cork has a shot to win !

roll with it roller doc

$300 is nothing to sneeze at. Why do you propose making a wagers that you posted without having the courage of your convictions?

That is the best wager on Big Brown, I have seen yet!:tro:

I'm too new at this to have courage of my convictions when it comes to betting. All I know is I am up almost 540.00 from the first two TC races by betting BB. So even if I lost all 300.00 which I doubt, I'm still up for the year and money left over for the BCC. Obviously I would love to win more $$$

So now after most posters advice, I plan to back off and play some BB Exactas, one trifecta and possibly an across the board.

With Casino Drive out the race is pretty much unplayable - save your money.

i don't understand why casino drive got so much attention to begin with. and i don't think he is/was the only horse that could give big brown a fit today. by the same token, i don't see why big brown couldn't have defeated him by the same distance he's been beating his other 'competition'.

obviously if big brown runs his race, and the others who have faced him previously don't step up, it's a done deal. but they still have to run the thing....

smarty also won his derby and preakness (and the arkansas derby) in convincing fashion. that counted for nothing on belmont day. the same may happen today. or big brown might become #12.

i just threw up in my mouth a little.

You bring up an interesting topic that I didn't want to start a new thread with.

In comparing Smarty Jones to Big Brown, I'm not talking about talent wise, but going into The Belmont in 2004 as compared to today. I think Big Brown is a better bet today than Smarty was. For one, Big Brown's competitors seem to be less of a field than Smarty's. Although i like Denis Of Cork too.

I truly feel the fact that Kent D having gone through his mistake of 10 years ago missing the triple crown, he has learned heavily from that. Plus in this particular race, I like him starting from the 1 post which will make it a tad easier for the all important early break. I'd love to see Big Brown sit back in this Belmont just Like Alex did in 2005 and then turned it on when the others are pooped out.

I'm only jumping in here because I'm also one to throw out normal (reasonable) betting strategies on a big race with alot of $$ action. I've posted before, that I just budget some fun $$ for some "lottery ticket" style bets that have a chance of hitting some big bucks. I save my serious playing for other days. I hit the OTB with my fun bet on race day, then come home to fire up the grill, crack some cold beer or wine, and enjoy the race festivities from the comfort of my patio or sports viewing room.

If I collect something great, and if not I've still been entertained with only budgeted damage done.

At this point, I'm inclined to wager what I think will now be $168 on the race.

I'm gonna pick two horses to go along with Big Brown, and then box the three of them in superfectas for $1.

That way there are still scenarios I can be happy as a bettor if Big Brown wins, and I still have some high scoring angles should he run somewhere in the Top 4.

Not an advised strategy of course, but it seems to fit my needs well for this one....