Better Sire
 

Four that got nice deals from breading operationsZapper, 1st Sam, Alex, and Smarty. Which one will have the first derby runner?

In my opinion it will be Smarty.

Why?

The SJ babies are not impressive as a group. I have a hard time believing that AA will be a good sire, FS may be a good market sire but I dont know if he will sire classic type horses and GZ, who knows though Stronach has done very well making stallions.

I'd give GZ the best chance as I'm sure he was bred to plenty of Adena's good mares. He seems to get alot of route horses even when the pedigree says "miler."
I agree about FS being less likley to sire classic types, but he is by Giant's Causeway and if the mare has some stamina...

I don't think that either AA or SJ will be all that good.

I agree about 1st Sam. A good Dynaformer mare should add stamina and also turf to go along with the win early results that did. I still think his Giants Causway will help his stamina.

Impressive babies mean ZERO

Possibly true but non-impressive means a lot

When it comes to one of them WINNING the Derby then I would agree with you. But the question was which one would have the 1st Derby runner.

first samuari has the potential to be a sire of SIRES.... A SUPER SIRE

You're funny.

If the question is about who will have the first runner in the Derby then you need to look at who owns/trains alot of the colts by the 4 sires. Any sire that Todd Pletcher, for example buys is more likely to be represented in the Derby than a sire he doesn't buy.
I have not really read up on what trainers have shown interest in the offspring of the 4 stallions mentioned.

There isn't much interest in Smarty Jones from what I hear.

Some little tiny part of me (my heart?) would like Smarty to be a good sire but he was not well received and that is rarely a good sign.
I remember hoping that Coronado's Quest would be a top sire. He had the pedigree and conformation etc. I asked a few trainers about the CQ's they had at 2, and they were all less than thrilled. Those trainers were all correct.

They all stink, Ghostzapper is probably the only logical choice. The others will have to get very lucky to have a classic style horse.

why ? giants causeway is great... first sam, brings speed.....

i'd take first samurai over any of the other 3 named

He wasn't much horse?

agree with others that Ghostzapper is the only one who will be a very good sire. . .

jcs, only about one in 10 horses make it as a sire. odds are not in first samurais favor. and yeah, he's at claiborne, and they'll do their best to make him. but don't forget that monarchos, second fastest derby winner ever, also stood there. he's not there anymore.
as for the giant, he's getting racehorses, but that doesn't necessarily translate into being a sire of sires. it wasn't that long ago that they were asking why storm cat wasn't proving to be a sire of sires.

I am totally subjective on Smarty Jones. My heart is hoping he is a great sire. I believe he was a very fast horse and I believe his offspring will be great as well. Will see

Having a heart in this game isnt a very good idea

It's ok I am prepared to lose

i just got off the phone with lauren stitch and pedigree ann. so don't take what i say lightly. i have gravitas now.

that's right. check out the big swinging gravitas.

hypnotic, isn't it?

having considered all aspects this is my conclusion:

smarty jones retired to stud in august 2004. ghostzapper in june 2005. afleet alex in december 2005. first sam in july 2006.

i'll take the free square and book the first sam bets.

Smarty and Ghostzapper both saw some quality mares, so it wouldn't be that shocking if one of them gets a horse into the Kentucky Derby within a couple of years. They could certainly achieve this feat WITHOUT being great - or even very good - sires.
So my question is....and I don't mean it to be rude, I'm actually curious....why exactly would anyone care about trying to answer this particular question?

very true. our emblem anyone?

My take, in order: Ghostzapper, Alex, First Samurai, Smarty.

I dont see greatness in his future but who knows.

I think EmpireMaker, Vindication, Mineshaft, Medaglia D'oro will strike before then ones you mentioned. imo.

and Bernardini ......