DERBY WORKS (4/27): Col. John (:57.4), Fillies (:58+) in Hot Drills
 

Brilliant 5f spin by the Santa Anita Derby winner who looked comfortable throughout and finished 6f in 1:11.1.

Proud Spell in sharp :58.3 with 1:12.4 gallop out and Eight Belles in :58.1 (1.12.0)... Eight Belles tired slightly at the end of her work and was breathing heavier than Proud Spell when coming off the track after their works...

At least we now know that CJ doesn't hate the CD dirt....:D

wait 'til he has to eat some:p

Holy Moly

Thanks Steve,

Adding info to the ball of confusion. Appears since form and record info is throw out, works and looks coming down to the wire vitally important.

By the way, you are one lucky guy to be able to right there at the action of such great events like the Derby and all the other racing you cover. I guess it safe to say you're getting what you diserve. Bravo to you. Give me a call if you need a handler, security guard, or driver. I'm there.

Spyder

Wow...this may have been the most important move of the week because of his status as the Cali top dog and lack of dirt experience. Can't wait to read Welsh's report to see if he was urged at all.

Steve, if you saw it, what was your opinion of the three. Obviously the times look strong, but was it easy or did they push them any? kentuckyderby.com has been posting video of the works and should have it up later today

I know ... I wish they'd hurry up and post the work. I'm dying to see what he looked like. I've only seen a bit of video of him galloping over the surface and IMO, so far so good. :D

LOL..might be true for a few of these...even those that have run on dirt.

Thanks for the link. Not sure how to evaluate works but any opinions on what ones you have watched...anyone? Colonial John and Cowboy Cal looked very impressive but again not sure I know what I'm looking at.

Help!

Spyder

Here's the alert:

Date: April 27, 2008
Track: CHURCHILL DOWNS
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 57:80 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/62

Colonel John's work will be talked about as the "Derby work" you look for ala Barbaro and Street Sense the last two years. It was essentially perfect from a movement point of view in that he looked like he could have gone as long as the rider wanted. I was watching from the clocker's stand in the Media Center so we will have to rely on someone at the gap to hear how he came off the track. He finished up in an eye-opening :23.1.. terrific considering the splits (12.0, 23.2, 34.3, 46.0, 57.4 (1:11.1).

The fillies both seemed to go great, but as noted, it appeared Eight Belles was tiring approaching the finish. Proud Spell went really well and evenly in a move that mirrored Colonel John's...

i wonder if jones and porter will go by todays work for eight belles....that doesnt sound like a good work to head for the derby on. hell, i don't even know that that's a good oaks work!

looks as tho col john did finally get acclimated, as early on there were reports that he was uncomfortable with the surface.

I couldn't win the Oaks, IMO, for her to be the one more likely to run in the derby is silly to me.

Friggin HARTY going 57.4......that just cost me a couple points from the people that think he COULDN'T handle the track.....

slow beyer numbers
 

I'm with you Scav, but as a former assistant to Baffers, you knew he was going to blow this horse out and it worked for Hard Spun last year, at least until the last 1/16th. But John is much more suited to 10 furlongs. I'm still hoping for a competitive race with 3 or 4 horses actually having a chance to win.

Sounds to me like the track was extremely fast this morning.

It sounds like Steve, not only were the fractions outstanding, but visually the way he was getting over the track was terrific? In terms of his stride etc.? That is what I remember from the Barbaro work, was the way he was getting over the track, it was so visually impressive to look at. Thanks for all the great info.

ok, i just watched the colonel's workout from today and his time was fast and he "looked" good doing it i guess but what am i really suppose to be looking at. I am starting to wonder about workouts, much like race replays, are in the eye of the beholder but what do you take away from it? He looked awesome and really seemed to be getting into it just before he got to the tents in the infield and then the next thing you see is a friggin rocketship coming out from behind the tents. Looked really powerful but maybe im missing something.

In my opinion, workouts are so unbelievably over-rated pre-Derby. While I back-off this a bit this year with horses having been synthetic mavens all spring, I still contend it. It'd be one thing if all horses were trained the same, and we could accurately compare, but anything beyond that, is a lot of guesswork.

Why?? I know nothing about the horses. Perhaps Eight Belles is always more tired after her works than Proud Spell. Perhaps it does mean something, but I think you'd have to really know both fillies and their regular reactions to workouts to make any judgement based on these works. I think the reason Eight Belles is the one headed to the Derby is Eight Belles is quite a bit larger than Proud Spell, and Jones thinks she has more talent even if she perhaps isn't necessarily better than Proud Spell right now. Jones think she is the one more likely to run a "huge" race which would be needed by either to finish on the board in the Derby.

right on, i think this horse must be used though. i won't bet him to win because of the price. he is bred to be a beast on the dirt. when big brown sputters like i think he will this should be one of the horses that has dead aim. real dirt might make this horse even better !

Agree with you guys. First reaction I was happy because he ran so well on the dirt, then I realized that workout will be splashed all over the place and he just got bet down a few points.

Big Truck with a nice spin this morning, 5F in 59.40.

His chances went from 0.1% to 0.2%.

How exactly did this increase the chances of the current favorite for the Mike Lee?

You actually think he's the favorite for the Mike Lee? I figured I'd get 5-1 on him in that race :D

Agreed- all kidding aside, I actually like Big Truck. Just not for the Derby...

Z Fortune does, however, rate a big shot to hit the board IMO. I don't know if he's actually good enough to win but a mile and a quarter will fit him well, his running style fits well to get a good trip, and his speed figures are certainly competitive.

Cape of Storms will be there too.

Indeed. We'll see who's entered in the Mike Lee. I don't think the Big Apple Triple has ever been won. $250,000 bonus. These races are in addition to the $250,000 Empire Classic of course.
http://www.nybreds.com/frames/FS_triple.html

I agree that this is a strong group of NY Breds.

Maybe someone can explain to me logically, after the insanity of the Derby subsides, what exactly is so compelling about Z Fortune. If a straw falls in his path he wilts.

Other than his Rebel, which admittedly was a terrible effort at 70 cents on the dollar, he really hasn't run a bad race. He's stepped forward in each effort otherwise (technically the Risen Star was a step back speedwise but I think we can attribute the figure to the glacial pace since every runner out of the race ran a higher # in their next start), and his Arkansas Derby was legitimately good- if he doesn't get such a wide trip there, he wins. His running style seems to fit my projected pace scenario, as well. He certainly isn't a spectacular talent, but he grinds out decent race after decent race and if you're looking for horses who can hit the board at 20-1 or higher I think he's the right one.

I don't get what was good about his Arkansas Derby, but maybe I'm making the mistake of thinking it will take a good horse to be competitive in this year's Derby, as there appears to ultimately be a dearth of those.

To me, he benefited from a fast pace, had a good trip ( I don't particularly get worked up about wides ), and couldn't get by a distance challenged mediocrity who was involved in a solid pace. I guess I should wait for the pps on Wednesday but I hope there are better alternatives than him. I haven't liked a race he has run save perhaps his maiden win.

I don't think the pace was all that swift, merely average. I don't know Oaklawn well enough to project pace from one distance to another, but the Northern Spur went 1:11 3/5 to the 6F at a mile, so not much slower and those beasts were MUCH worse than the Ark Derby. If it was, perhaps you should credit Gayego more than it sounds like you want to- he did come home in a solid 12.7 seconds after that. That one looks more concerning at 10F, though.

The sad truth is there isn't much to look at beyond Big Brown, Colonel John, and Pyro.

man, i just hope most people try to outthink the obvious...... big brown should be 1-5.

He hits the board I am smoked for the whole day.....

hey, its just 1 race.......there will be about 25 more to get it back;)

How bout you listen to your uncle Phil, who says forget trying to beat him in every wager and take what's available?