Zayat trouble
 

I have read on another board that Zayat is seriously considering running both Z Humor and Massive Drama in the Derby. As both have the earnings to do so, this could be very bad news for Visoinaire, Bob Blackjack, Dennis of Cork, and Big Truck.

Paul

and he wonders why everyone thinks he's an idiot.

Someone will talk him out of it, although, personally, I would love it, because it again dwindles my choices even more and more.....

Not entirely correct or wrong. Romans explained that Halo Najib is the targeted Derby horse. But, Massive Drama could possibly run if Halo Najib were to get pushed out on earnings.

i like massive drama a lot... cashed on him his maiden win, exacta with tiz it i think.... but anyway....

would he have any chance at all in the derby ?
i'd say no way

Halo Najib and Massive Drama, two horses solidly entrenched on my auto-toss list should they run in the derby.

halo is the worst of the 2 in my opinion, but they both have to be throw outs, even to run 1-2-3-4, i doubt either of them can do anything

^^^ "moment of clarity".

Emphasize "moment".

He has the semi-legit Z Fortune solidly in the field, no? I try not to root against guys like Zayat, who actually made his own money rather than being born into petrodollars, but he has a MASSIVE ego and it's frustrating to watch him micromanage his stock whereas if he left the choices up to the trainer he'd be doing far better (aka like he's done with his crack sprinter J Be K.)

the other z.... z humor has a better chance then these 2

Remember Sharp Humor ? He was in great position in the first turn of the 06 KD. Then he broke his knee which ended his career. Churchill has received a lot of critcism over the years and ther are a lot of "dirt" horses that don't Likr the track. So we'll see.

Z Humor could run a Sedgefield/Limehouse like 4th or 5th in the Derby with a pretty good trip just because he's a grinder and no one else is any good. I can't think of any scenario where Massive Drama wouldn't run 18th, 19th, or 20th, even with this awful group.

Like the fine job the Pyro folks are doing..

ENOUGH OF THE F*CKIN CHEAP SHOTS ON DIRT TRACKS. It didn't end his career, he came back and ran later that season. The shed took him away, not a catastrophic injury. I'd love to hear who you say criticizes the dirt at CD, because it's one of the best surfaces out there. Apparently you don't actually watch the races at Keeneland where no-talent horses win every other race thanks to the synthetic crap they installed there.

I actually had no problem with the way Denis Of Cork was handled at all.

They put the horse in what they believed to be the race that represented the path of least resistance - he was an odds on favorite in a Grade 2 stake with a 500K purse after all.

Could they have predicted a paceless race - with an outside post - over an inside-speed track beforehand?

I guess it was public knowledge that the pace setter after a 1/4 mile was run had 7 wins and 3 seconds in the 10 races on the '07 Illi Derby card - but that still didn't mean the track had to be like that again the following year.

Just because it didn't work doesn't mean it was a bad idea.

I will never knock someone for putting their horse in the most logical lucrative spot.

How many softer spots for 500K will there ever be than the '08 Illi Derby?

The Pennsylvania Derby and the West Virginia Derby would answer that question. However, that answer is neither here nor there because they aren't derby preps.

Since when did you become such a results queen?

I'm not sure he'd have beaten Sierra Sunset in the Rebal - SS didn't have Silver Edition pestering him the whole way like in the Southwest - but I'd say it was a coinflip between him and SS for the Rebel win if he goes there.

In order to be the Derby favorite over Big Brown - he'd have needed to win the Rebel, and wheel back and win the Ark Derby impressively. That was unlikely.

Denis Of Cork has four career races - and three Beyers in the 80's. Come on Hossy - he was no killer.

Basically, all that happened was that the connections decided to pass the Rebel because they didn't want to run him two more times in a short window before the Derby. Fine, if they think they have a horse who can compete in all three legs of the triple crown series, I don't blame them.

Now, you are left with The Wood or The Illi Derby as your options.

You pass on the bigger tougher field, and go where you will be the odds on favorite in a short field.

What is it you disagree with most - not putting in two more starts before the TC Series or opting for the Hawthorne race over the Wood?

Unless you can predict unforeseen pace scenerios and track biases long in advance - the horse was spotted correctly.

I hear ya - and I thought it was pretty amusing how they changed plans every other day.

If he just wins the Illi Derby at odds on - isn't he in a 3-way scramble with Pyro and CJ for 2nd choice in the Derby? - and isn't he better suited to see out all three races in the series?

Plans change at some point. I don't think they babied the horse at all. They felt the Illinois Derby was the most logically race. Why send him to New York to face War Pass, why send him to Oaklawn and face a 12 horse field. He raced in a Grade II that has produced some fine runners in the Derby. The plan didn't work out for them. It was a nice try and DofCork may get into the Derby. Time will only tell.

So you are saying in order to have good management, the plan you lay out has to work in the world of horse racing. Nothing in this business is 100% certain. Just because a plan didn't work, doesnt mean it was poor management. Correlation is not causation.

...
You seem to equate failure with a bad idea. It's as if the world of probability doesn't exist. It's like saying every horse that doesn't win the Derby is the victim of poor choices made along the way.

A good try that doesn't work may be known as a failure in the business world, but it's not necessarily scorned by successful investors or successful gamblers. The outcome is secondary to whether the logic was sound. If I'm confident the logic was sound, I'll do the exact same thing next time a similar situation comes around.

I understand you think that the logic was highly UNsound in the handling of Denis of Cork. But offering the outcome as proof that the plan was bad is faulty thinking, IMO.

--Dunbar

IMO, the only mistake they made was not raising hell after the post position draw.

They let themselves become victims.

i don't understand why the went to new york and then illinois. if they wanted to skip the rebel, fine. but he had a win at oaklawn, and the ark derby pays a million. even without a win at a track he already ran well on, he'd still get a much better check for hitting the board then he would anywhere else.
at any rate, it's done now.