Derby setting up perfect storm for smart bettors
 

Bob's Blackjack - Going
War Pass - Going
Recapturetheglory - going
Big Brown - going

MORE SPEED, they are going to go 22/45/108

CHUCK THEM ALL OUT!!!

ambitious..... 22.4-46-109.4 sounds good to me

Your right it looks like if it doesn't rain the track will prob be pretty fast could be a speedfest. Will be interesting.

You got it Scav! :D perfect storm for a big longshot closer

The million dollar ???? is who is that closer??? I have no friggin idea this year has been unlike any that i have seen in the short time that i have been following racing.

TOMCITO...

Pyro would have to be the most likely closer, wouldn't he?

Giacomo type of year.
We have got to have a full year in the gate.
Every horse with the ability to rate
will think they have a shot with a good trip.

Looks very chaotic right now.

You guys do realize that the racing gods may want a laugh, and out of this year is going to come a Triple Crown winner (who will start out by winning the Derby in 2:05)

Wouldn't Giacomo be the 4th or 5th choice in this year's Derby?

You got a point there.
Giacomo would not go off at 52-1 or whatever it was, this year.

OMG mumtaz i almost threw up all over my computer when i read that but your right, how funny would it be if that would happen. All spring we are all bitching about this horse sux that horse sux and then wham o triple crown winner. Man that would be about right the way the spring has been going.

Well the terrible crop does make it more likely we will see a Triple Crown winner. If Big Brown is that good and can survive the Derby clusterf*ck there shouldn't be much standing in his way.

does giant moon have a shot to get in ? i think he'd be deadly from just off the pace. AND YES THIS IS SERIOUS. he improved tons today and i did not like the ride at all.

Aside from the fact that he'd be 3,000-1 if he actually got in the Derby he also only has $37,500 in graded earnings so would need 20 or less to enter to be able to get in.

Prussian/Giant Moon exacta box?

lol im on the dennis of cork-cowboy cal exacta

Been saying the same thing...there is a ton of speed- as always, but there aren't many stalking types that look overly impressive. Then you get to the obvious choices of Pyro and Colonel John, who will have a lot to navigate to get through traffic. It can be done, but if one doesn't fire and the other has trouble, bombs away on the exotics.

pyro was closer to the pace in his last, i can see him getting a stalking trip and pouncing at the right moment.
seriously out of all the horses out there, he's the one who has been doing it all right. war pass-questionable at the distance, big brown-distance and seasoning, colonel john-surface switch, cool coal man-hasn't run since the foy, where he looked good...needs to show something in the bluegrass for sure.

if the derby was run today, i'd be backing pyro.

If john takes to the chruchhill dirt... hes going to very tough to beat. War pass simply will not be able to wire the field. I also agree danzig, pyro may have a very very nice trip.

can't rule out war pass completely--track conditions could be a factor. but i'd say that he will have a very hard time winning this race based on his style and the amount of other speed in the race. getting caught in the wood doesn't bode well for adding that 10th furlong.

Danzig rain will obviously help him but even with it, I don't think he has enough to win. He's shown he wants to be out front and there is no fathomable way he can outsprint everyone and hold onto it...

Hoc - you forgot,


He'll have the whole field covered by the third week of April

Anyone that watched the Wood and came out of it with the impression that Giant Moon could be a factor in the Derby needs to find a new hobby.

He won't be on top of my ticket. But 14/1 futures might have been value....

I agree, his tongue will have layers of CD dirt!

I don't think Big Brown is a "need the lead" horse. I doubt he will be sent into a pace battle. He can sit, gallop, and pounce. Plus, he is simply faster than the others.

That being said, I cant take 3:1 in a 20 horse field, so back to the drawing board on how to construct a wager.

Let me take this a step further: anyone who thought that Giant Moon could've been a factor in the WOOD needs to find a new hobby. And throw the Wildcat horse in there as well.

this horse was gasping for the line, and its not like Ekati was flying late so him getting the distance at the derby would be a surprise for me. I honestly don''t know if Lapenta and Zito are gonna enter this one in the derby. Before the race Lapenta was interviewed and said that War Pass had a lot to prove coming back from his TB derby performance.

Let's Go Caps.... got tickets for the 2nd game of the series, would have rather played Ottawa but Pitt has never helped us out in the past why would they start now, right?

-bt-

I agree, but post position draw and field make-up could determine where this horse is placed during the race. If he draws inside, there may be no choice but to try to make the lead. Obviously, it's hard to say this early.