Some Saturday Beyer Figures
 

Here are some of Saturday's Beyers. Illman will have Sunday's on his FormBlog today or tomorrow:

Well Armed 105
Daytona 104
Spotsgone 103
Euroears 102
Grasshopper 102
Indian Blessing 99
Graeme Six 97
Golden Doc A 93
Double Trouble 92
Bsharpsonata 90
Pyro 90

NT

Time will tell how accurate that 90 is for Pyro.

It is a 100% accurate Beyer figure. Beyer figures (on dirt) don't take into account slow paces and bad trips. They reflect only the final time. So time won't tell anything in this case except what we already know, that it was a slow pace and a rough trip which compromised the final time.

T/S,

Meaning what? These aren't subjective assignments... Indian Blessing ran that much fast than Pyro a half hour earlier (1/5 second x @2 pts. x 5 = 10 pts.). The figs couldn't appear more 'accurate' based on the comparison of the two races, those finishing behind the two winners, the overall card, etc..

There was far too much information produced in Saturday's Fair Grounds races to suggest that the fig for Pyro is inaccurate.. Pyro doesn't exist in a vacuum and figure making while sometimes an art, remains mostly a science.

yes the figure was slow. some peolpe will dog him for that. to me,the positives were:

1. he showed a willingness to win.
2. he showed a great turn of foot.
3. he overcame a trip that was far from ideal.

what's is his next race?

True, however, the interpretation of figures is 100% "art."

The 90 to me is low for this horse. I'm not saying it's an inaccurate calculation by any means, but that it doesn't truly represent how good this horse is. The numbers he ran last year show that he is capable of faster and until proven otherwise, I believe he can cycle back to those numbers, which put him right with the others at the top.

I'd say the performance and figure for Grasshopper made it clear that he is not just a Saratoga horse for course and in the hands of a careful and prudent horseman like Neil Howard he has the potential to put together a nice little season. He is a winner at Churchill and Saratoga, handled the heat in the summer nicely, and seems to have a great deal of upside being so lightly raced. While I'm not one to forecast accomplishments like Eclipse Awards and such, I'd say he can definitely pick up a Grade I this year.

NT

Outside of Curlin, who does Grasshopper have to beat? If they can zig-and-zag all year, with the abundance of G1's out there, Grasshopper could have a great year.

Because of the way the Risen Star was run any final time speed figure had to be relatively meaningless. There's just nothing you can do.

It feels like that now....in the second week of February. Maybe it will be true, and nothing against Grasshopper, who has a great name, but let's hope there are better horses than Magna Graduate lurking somewhere out there.

This is a suspect post...Even an idiot like me knows it makes no sense

Yeah great name.. I should name my next Caradine

How so? You don't interpret figures? You don't account for bad trips, scenarios and situations into the figures you're reading? Is this post a joke?

Absolutely. Could you imagine the disaster it would be if Curlin never raced after Dubai? A horse like Magna Graduate or Awesome Gem would be top dawgs. Yikes.

"but that it doesn't truly represent how good this horse is. "

Isnt a BSF or any figure a fig which represents the speed of the race.. A 7 claimer can run a 90 fig does that mean a 7 claimer is as classy as Pyro?

If pyro ran 100 or 90 fig what the F does mean with respect to his potential or quality?

I'm not sure if there are many or since I hate MG so much I'll say at least not many better than Silver Lord. He can probably move forward off this as the year goes on and should be able to push his figures up to where he was for the Travers. Unfortunately for the state of the older male division, anything over 105 this year is going to be a major threat to win a G1. Curlin, Spring at Last, and Daaher are off to Dubai. Gotta figure at least one and likely two don't make it through the rest of the year. Not many others out there capable of going 105+.

100% correct.

A beyer speed figure is an adjusted final time.
It does not tell you anything else about the race shape, or the quality of the specific animal, or the quality of the race.

Invasor in his prime could have run in The Risen Star, and he probably gets "only" a 92 or 94 beyer for holding off a Pyro charge. Either that or the "art" takes a greater role and Invasor,pyro,etc.. awarded a higher beyer in line with projections and justified by a greater variant, and then Grasshopper and Indian Blessing get even higher figures...

Even a superior horse will score beyers that are subject to the race shape, if their style is to be rated to win the race, and not pushed to beat the clock.

More so on the turf?

you win 3200 and life is good.. I remember when I scored that kind of monster money the first time..I was high as a kite.. I remember not going to second period math and just counted the fifties one by one.. Oh to be 14 again..

don't know about disaster but i Don't think you will see Curlin run in the US this year.

Well if he wins the DWC then the chances of him having a faux injury are extremely high.

That is the truth. The Oaklawn strip played pretty well to frontrunners on Saturday but this guy went quick early then held them off gamely in a nice performance.

I've held his Sea O'Erin against him as I foolishly needed the 2nd place finisher to get up for the tri and super and this guy just kept on going. The other amazing thing about him is that he seems to pay well every time.

NT

He paid like $150 to win that mile race at Arlington, one of the highest payoffs of the entire year last year that I could remember

What a neat horse Euroears has become.

I'm going off memory, but wasn't this the first race that Grasshopper rated off the pace?

It looks like Borel has commited to Turf War, Grasshoppers full bro, for his Derby mount.

Loved Spotsgone on Saturday and then managed to not cash a dollar on him. He's a neat horse who's turned into a decent animal.

He's no world beater, but he tends to always show up and has now managed to steal two Grade III races and a turf race in the past year. He's the type of horse who's easy to love because it seems that no matter how fast he goes, he has shown the ability to get very brave on the front end.

On top of that, Saturday marked the fifth time in the last year that he got the better of Gouldings Green in their five meetings, and if memory serves me right -- at a much better price than Gouldings Green in each of those five races.

In other news from Oaklawn, Sweet Redeemer looked solid winning the closer. Second out, got bet down to 5-2 favoritism, raced well behind the early pace and simply cruised once let loose around the turn. Not likely to be a champ, but definitely an interested horse to keep an eye on given the close over a track that wasn't playing overly kindly to that type of runner on Saturday.

Any word on the "Sheet" numbers for these races?

Thread re-opened and back on topic. Disintegration into the previous craziness, and those creating such, will be given short shrift...

You, BTW, and Travis are saying sort of what I was saying about the division this year and why I felt that there might be worse decisions than putting a horse like Nobiz back on the dirt. He's already won a grade one on it and he's come close to the 105 mark which, if he repeated that, would make him competitive in quite a few races and with the number of big money and grade one options out there, I'd feel very confident in his chances of winning one or two.

Actually, while it's hard to be overly optimistic, I'm not quite ready to condemn the entire older division this early. I'm not exactly sure what's out there, though I have a feeling first time dirter Frost Giant will get a huge number for Monday's 6th at Gulfstream, but it's still too early to know for sure.

That's not a bad point actually about Nobiz and I wonder if one thing that Tagg is thinking about is how does Showing Up come back. If he's miraculously back to his former self, I wonder if that would affect Nobiz's schedule. I also suppose Curlin could have something to do with that. However, considering Nobiz's affinity for both surfaces I also wonder if he would consider polytrack Grade 1s in California....especially with the BC Classic obviously being out there. I doubt he will want to move him back and forth between grass and dirt but I wouldn't be shocked if he was contemplating a return to dirt.

Sounds like we should ask someone to ask Tagg. Knowing his affinity for the press I'm sure he would be delighted to be forthcoming.

Pyro's effort was somewhere in between the 2 extremes mentioned(visually great,and beyer figure/time mediocre.)He won a grade 3 very easily.My guess is he will do well.I think one or 2 will probably do a little better.I think a couple others will like the Derby distance a little more.

seems the last few years we've all had the older horse doldrums at this time of year, yet usually one or two suddenly show on the radar and we end up having an enjoyable season. too soon to say just yet who the top dogs will be in the now misnamed handicap division, but the fun is always in the discovery.

i agree on all counts. i know some are waiting to see if war pass was just a precocious two year old, but maybe pyro already answered that question....beating a suspect field is one thing, making the derby field and doing well is quite another. pyro may have more questions now than previous to the risen star.

The question that you have to ask is whether or not that one or two that seem to suddenly show up do so because they are just the best of the ones that are left and somebody has to win or do they actually step up their game and take it to the next level? For example, if you take out Street Sense, Curlin, and Hard Spun and Imawildandcrazyguy ends up as the Derby winner, is it accurate to say he stepped up or is it accurate to say he was just the best of what was left? This year, because of the lack of good older horses and with the best older horse set to miss at least the first half of the year over here, several horses that probably should be considered second level at best, are going to win some pretty prestigious races and be overhyped because of it.

I think more of what Danzig was referring to was a situation like with Lawyer Ron last year. At this point in 2007 LR was just an allowance winner and most were dubious about his ability to step up and win bigger races. He proved that he was a quality older horse, winning the Oaklawn Handicap, Whitney, and Woodward en route to an Eclipse Award. Someone like that could definitely surface, as you insinuated in your post.

NT

But did Lawyer Ron really step up? I'm not so sure he did. From a Beyer perspective he did and he ran good races at Oaklawn and Saratoga. But he wasn't beating much of anything at all. He was only beating other grade two and three level horses. When faced with real competition, he seemed to keep getting beat.

Lawyer Ron stepped up in a handicap division that was in shambles around April 1. Whether you decide to call it him beating up on weak competition or stepping up, the fact of the matter is that he ran excellent races in the Oaklawn Handicap, Whitney, and Woodward, a very solid race in the Met Mile (where he lost to two subsequent G1 winners) and then didn't exactly disgrace himself in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He fell victim to a superior crop of 3YOs. Might that happen again this year? It could, but as for right now there are plenty of older horses who may be able to "step up" and join the fray and Grasshopper is definitely one of them.

NT

Agreed on Nobiz and Showing Up. With three surfaces being available there is really no reason to ever run them for less than $500,000 this year.

Yeah that purse money is real motiavation for the Jackson's and Valando..