Calder Pick 5 for Saturday
 

Ok, I think there is a chance to make some money in this pick 5. You could have 3 singles in Fog, Too Much Bling and Dubai Escapde. That means you could go 5 deep in the other two races for a $25 ticket. Get that ticket 10x for $250 and you could make some money. But is it really worth risking on 3 singles, even though those singles look very very strong? I like Too Much Bling as a single and I like Dubai Escapade as a single too. Fog's race seems to be a little togher in my opinion. If you choose to go deep in the Fog race and nail the other 2 singles and then maybe catch the other two, you could be looking at a nice payout. Any ticket structure thoughts?

Well one thing I am watching today is the weather, I personally would be concerned if they are racing on a muddy or sloppy track.

It is supposed to be clear in the high 80s to low 90s starting today and through the weekend. Hope that helps. I think most of the rain stopped yesterday morning so it should be a nice dry track.

I've been racking my brain for two days trying to map out my P-5 play.. Right now, I'm planning to single Too Much Bling and Dubai Escapade... and try to beat LITF... Basically for the same reason you put out there, Fog's race is tougher and deeper. If I'm gonna try to beat Fog, I don't plan on missing.. I'll take pretty much all of them. Wet weather may derail all my plans though!! We'll see Saturday.. Those of us interested should try to work together to hash out which horses should be used, and which ones are good tosses in each leg. I'm assuming the p-5 is for races 7-11, but I'm not 100% sure about this. Anyone know for sure?

7-11.

For sure.

I have been racking my brain out this morning on how I want to attack this pick 5. I know I am going to single Bling and Escapade. But I want to keep the cost below $40. I am going to have the ticket 10x.

This is what I have so far

Race 7 - Every horse BUT Mykindasaint, Bayou's Lassie and A Sea Trippi
Race 8 - Gin Rummy Champ, Love My Mountain, Western Kind, Kaufy Machine and Justice for Austin
Race 9 - Bling
Race 10 - DE
Race 11 - Fog, Joey P, Pomeroy, Weigelia

So this is 5x5x1x1x4 - that is $100. I need to knock $60 off, or go with a $4 ticket.

I like your plan, but I'm going for a big price in one of the other legs, so I'll be going DEEP in several legs and playing it for $1. I still haven't gone over the PP's, I'll post my plans after I do.

R7: Morner (press), Victorina
R8: Love My Mountain, Whata Soldier, Kopper Kilgoar, Western Kind
R9: Northern Soldier, Bling
R10: Dubai Escapade
R11: LITF (press), Gold Storm

Wider ticket is 2x4x2x1x2 = $32 for a buck.

[quote=SentToStud]R7: Morner (press), Victorina
R8: Love My Mountain, Whata Soldier, Kopper Kilgoar, Western Kind
R9: Northern Soldier, Bling
R10: Dubai Escapade
R11: LITF (press), Gold Storm

Wider ticket is 2x4x2x1x2 = $32 for a buck.[/QUOTE
Hope you hit it brother

Yeah thanks Lady I just checked their results so far today and the track looks good and the dirt is fast. I am stoked, I doubled my budget from $50 to $100 for the day tomorrow and just picked up tomorrows DRF. I may as well take a little stab at that Pick 5, something very cheap.

With all due respect..the only single I can see is Dubai Escapde..

Ez

I'd single TMB and Dubai Escapade then go deep in the Smile, because Fog is gonna be the biggest underlay of the day. If you beat him, you'll get paid, and there are plenty of horses in that race good enough to beat him.

With all due respect..the only single I can see is Dubai Escapde..

I totally agree. Think maybe try to beat Bling with 1-2 horses but still use him. As far as Fog goes, leave him off the ticket and use 3 horses? Kellys Landing, Nighttime Affair and Mister Fotis.

Race 7 is brutal for me, brutal. I have watched some replays, looked at the PP's in DRF till I am blue. I just might go deep in this leg.

Done, not even gonna spend another second trying to put together a Pick 5 but rather concentrate on 2 or 3 Pick 3's, which can be played agressive with my budget

IMO, Too Much Bling is the better single, but I think both will win Saturday. :)

yeah...the 7th is tough.

Race 7 - Victorina, G City Gal, Rich Fantasy
R8 - Whatasoldier, Western Kind, Justice for Auston, Gin Rummy Champ
Race 9- Too Much Bling
Race 10 - Dubai Escapade
Race 11- Weigelia, Nightmare Affair, Friendly Island, Gaff, Lost in the Fog

3x4x1x1x5 = $60

I tried and tried to find a reason not to single Dubai Escapade and there is none that I can see. Same for Too Much Bling who got a ride last time out accurately described by a DT member as a "botched abortion." A lot of pace in race 7 makes me favor some of the closers, who are also the more talented entries IMO. Hate capping turf sprints like Race 8, I admittedly do very poorly in them, so I'll go a bit deeper there. Going deepest in the Smile, sentimentally hoping for LITF but using a good number of horses that have a nice shot at hitting at a longer price. Hope a good amount of entries single fog!

Please note, free past performances included if you didnt plan on playing Calder (so didnt buy DRF) and dont want to spend the $$$ now (like me!). Could only find nomination PPs for Race 8, which arent very good...

Being from California, I follow the horses and jockeys from here closely and that certainly baises me (and not necessarily for the better)... but I am smart enough to realize that Russell Baze is minor league compared to the jocks he's racing against (and my home track is Bay Meadows where he is a god)... with that said, Russell won't win two races on Saturday but he can win and usually does it when least expected, so I have to chose between Victorina and LITF (or neither). I don't feel good about LITF (although I LOVE this horse) because he doesn't do well in large fields - I don't see him getting the lead and if he has to work too hard in the stretch I don't think Russell will be able to get him across first... I think I like the 20-1 longshot, Weigelia's chances better than Fog (that hurts me to say) I think Victorina has a shot in the 7th and I'll use her but if she wins, I don't believe LITF will. Just my thoughts...

My picks:

R7 - pp 1,7,8
R8 - pp 3,4
R9 - pp 5,6
R10 - pp 1,7
R11 - pp 5,7,10

Don't know exactly how I'm going to play these yet, I know it will be on a couple different tickets...

Good luck on Saturday everyone.

The more I look at Weigelia, the more I like this horse. I think we will get every bit of 20-1 on this horse if not more. Bling and Dubai stand head and shoulders above their fields. If someone other than those 2 win then so be it. But I have got to make a stand by singling those two. I am sticking to my original ticket and playing it 6x for a total of $600.

I personally think you are safe singling those two. There is just nobody in either of those fields that looks like they could really beat them. Singles do lose all the time - but I think you should feel comfortable singling them. If I play I am singling both as well. I agree about Weigelia also. Not a huge fan of the class jump, but I do like the turf to dirt angle and Lezcano aboard. Running up front against Lost in the Fog may not be anyones cup of tea though. If the price is right - around 20/1 - then I may have to jump in. If not, oh well. My personal choice in here is Gaff, though. Good luck with your ticket(s) - hope you hit big!

I like Weigelia a lot too. But he's 12-1 morining line and I think a little bit of a wise guy horse.. I'd be surprised if he's higher than 8-1 in the race.
If I can't trim down my Pick 5 ticket more than where it is right now(which is a lot), I may end up playing some sort of pick 3 singling DE and TMB and taking ALL in either the first or last leg for $10 or $20, and hope a longer shot wins the race. Of course, the problem is if a longer shot doesn't win, it won't pay enough to cover the original bet!! Sigh..

Zippy - Trust in the Derby Trail posters... I truly believe if you take a little from everyone here, they will lead you to the winning ticket - I've been following the advice of others here (and my own capping and knowledge) and my account is currently up over 200% in the past month! (yes, you folks here give great advice... just listen to each other!)

Pick 3 is not a bad way to go. You are basically playing a win bet if you single two legs of the pick 3. You might be in a case where a horse pays more for the win than the pick 3 pays.

I see LITF as vulnerable. My top choice is Gold storm but going deep.

I love Frolicing in the 7th at 6-1 ML.
Also deep in R8, top choice is the 4, followed closely by 3,10.
Near-single of Bling in R9
I like Leave me alone if DE doesn't fire in R10

$155 P5 play on 23 tickets, pre-scratch:
http://petrophysics.biz/stuff/capture4.bmp

Agree with you on Frolicing also. Believe you will get a price also as the shippers usually get bet much harder than the locals on a day like today. The only one I like on this card better is Villainage in the 4th. IMO this has been by far the most impressive of the local 2 year olds and each time this one has gone off bigger than its morning line. Hope it happens again.

Actually I'm reconfiguring the play with the YLD turf, downgrading What a soldier and also singling Frolicing.

almost time fellows

Just an FYI, my pick Kaufy Machine in the 8th scratched. So now my ticket is $480. I should of added Soldier, but I didnt.

So far the winners have been

Victorina - 5/2
Gin Rummy Champ - 4/1
Too Much Bling - 1/2

This thing aint gonna be worth it if Dubai Escapade (1/9 currently) and anything under 10/1 comes home in the Smile.

Yeah, I dont know if Gin Rummy Champ is enough for this thing to pay anything. I need it to pay at least $80 for the $1 to get my money back. I was really hoping for Victorina to lose. It Frolicking would have raced straight then she might have won. But that is neither here nor there. I guess we will have to wait and see.