Early Top Twenty Derby Hopefuls
 

Top Twenty Derby Hopefuls - 1/7/08

#1 Monba - Pletcher grey graduated at KEE, won at CD, and finished like a freight train (4th) in the G1 Cash Call Futurity at HOL. Next start will come in either the Fountain of Youth or Risen Star. By Maria's Mon and out of an Easy Goer mare. Lots to like.

#2 Blackberry Road - Half brother to Vindication finally put it all together in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club finishing a close 2nd. It seems like the conventional dirt and two turns is what he wants. Training at the Fair Grounds.

#3 Anak Nakal - G2 Ky JC winner deserves respect and looks to be a serious contender in a loaded barn. Should get better this year. The Classic distance will be no problem for the son of '98 Belmont Champ Victory Gallop.

#4 Pyro - Bridesmaid to War Pass a few times, but as the distances get longer the better he'll get. He was closing nicely in the Champagne and didn't disappoint in the BC Juvy slop at MTH.

#5 Tale of Ekati - Talented runner didn't care for the slop in the BC Juvy and now doesn't like the GP strip, so Tagg will either run him at Tampa Bay or the Fair Grounds. Gutsy runner will show his grit.

#6 Denis of Cork - Impressive maiden winner at CD going 7 furlongs. He did have the fractions up front to run at, but his move at the top of the stretch was something.

#7 Court Vision - Multiple graded winner including the G3 Iroquois at CD and the 1 1/8 G2 Remsen at AQU. Had some trouble in the Remsen, which probably led to the weak BSF of 76.

#8 Into Mischief - G1 Cash Call Futurity Champ showed his stuff in a very contentious race. Mandella trainee will have to translate his success to the conventional dirt.

#9 War Pass - BC and 2yr old champ has been awesome til this point including a eye popping 113 BSF in the BC Juvenile. I just have some reservations about him handling the further distances, especially when he meets some distance challenged front runners.

#10 Maimonides - Crushed maiden foes at the SPA and according to Baffert, you can draw a line through his last (G1 Hopeful) because his shins were killing him. Back in training, but will have to change plans because of the Santa Anita track conditions.

#11 Majestic Warrior - Another talented runner that was sidelined due to injury. Mott looking at a race in March and April before the Derby a la Street Sense last year.

#12 Colonel John - Not the best of trips in the Cash Call Futurity, but still managed to finish 2nd. Like Into Mischief, he's only ran on synthetic surfaces.

#13 The Roundhouse - Half brother to Circular Quay showed some promise last year, but he's still immature and must get it together soon.

#14 Etched - Romped maiden foes and did the same in the G3 Nashua, which included Anak Nakal who finished a distant 2nd (6 1/2 lgts back). He's been transferred to the Godolphin barn and looks to make his next start in the UAE Derby on March 29th. I can't see him coming back for the run for the roses.

#15 Cowboy Cal - He's clearly the best on the lawn in this division and Pletcher will give him another shot on the dirt. Trying to take the Barbaro route - Laurel Futurity - Tropical Park Derby - ?.

#16 Z Humor - Dead heat winner of the G3 Delta Jackpot has the earnings to make the line up on the first Saturday in May, but must continue to move forward.

#17 Turf War - Ditto to Z Humor. Canadian invader really enjoyed the conventional dirt and longer distance.

#18 Check it Twice - Has won three times going two turns including the What a Pleasure at CRC in which he earned a very respectable 96 BSF.

#19 Visionaire - Matz runner drew off to win by 5 1/2 lgts facing Alw company at GP on 1/4/08 at 1 1/8 miles. Will face graded quality in next start.

#20 Jedi Code - Empire Maker son owns a serious late kick, but doesn't have any room for error if he wants to be in the starting gate for the Derby.

Good Racing Luck

Blackberry Road is only a half to Vindication. . . But I agree that he should improve as the distances increase. . . Denis of Cork's my early derby horse but I'd like to see him run again to make sure the maiden win wasn't a fluke. . .

Hockey, thanks, change made. I agree on Denis of Cork.

I have a feeling he won't be ready for the Derby. Will be a nice horse down the line though.

Blackberry Road should put himself fimrly on the map this weekend in a race loaded with speed that should set up perfectly for him.

My top four:

1. War Pass
2. El Gato Malo
3. Indian Blessing
4. Colonel John

That's a pretty fair top 20 list at this point.
I would have honorable mentions go to Paint, Cave's Valley and perhaps Country Star.

Indian Blessing is not getting 10 furlongs in a Grade 1 against colts. As great a talent as she is - if she wins the Derby - I will grow a beard, convert to Islam, and give up the game.

don't you think there are a lot of people who would do whatever they could to keep a Lady for winning at the Men's Club:(

No.

A Lady won at the Men's Club 7 months ago. Whats your point?

Yes - she was the runner in the race best suited for a slow paced 12 furlong race.

Indian Blessing would be the runner least suited to the Derby circumstances - and even if it turns out to be one of the odd years where their isn't a lot of pace - she is still not seeing out the distance in that race.

Even discussing Indian Blessing as a contender for the KY Derby borders on lunacy.

Agree... I didn't think she would even get the BCJF distance.

Double Agree

She only did cause there was amazingly no other frontrunners in the race.

Triple Agree

My point is specifically with the Kentucky Derby. I loved the win at Belmont and cashed the tickets to prove it.

Don't worry... a filly will with the Derby again in our lifetime. Just not this year. There's no conspiracy against it happening.

They said the same things about Winning Colors. That turned out pretty good.

I like to read all the "he/she won't" comments. I read them prior to the BC races and I'll keep reading them through the TC series. I think it's silly to say that a horse only did something because of this or that. The fact is that she did it. Maybe nobody else was a front runner because nobody else has her speed. It wasn't like she was life and death to hold on in her races. She far outdistanced them and until I see proof that the gap is closing, I have to believe she's still far ahead of them. Now, if she had to face War Pass, that might make things interesting. They could cancel each other out. But if only one of them is there, I see no reason why it couldn't be a wire job in May.

Is Woody Stephens coming back from the grave to give a leg up to Pat Day to instruct him to not let the filly win by any means necessary?

Saying that a wire-to-wire win over a sloppy track when so many of her foes didn't fire and she shortened stride during slow final fractions is a powerful enough performance to be considered one of four Derby prospects is dicey in my opinion. It is, of course, your list.

At least you had Colonel John on your list who looks like he might be able to get 10 furlongs. I'm highly skeptical of your other three.

NT

Apparently, Country Star is also being pointed to the Derby, so Indian Blessing can have a little filly-to-filly convo with her if they're both in the gate. :D

All kidding aside, one that I've been interested in is Racecar Rhapsody. Thoughts on him anyone?

For the record - I think I easily lead all posters in quantity of posts saying that Rags To Riches had a very strong look in the Belmont Stakes before the race ran.

I'm serious - If Indian Blessing wins the Derby - I will become a muslim.

Actually, it was Pat Day's ineptitude that allowed Winning Colors to win that Derby and that was what Woody was reacting to with his foolish tactics in the Preakness. The problem was that what was needed in the Derby was a less passive ride.....not a suicide mission.

Aside from the unlikely scenerio in the Derby that would be beneficial to a horse with Indian Blessing's style, and what appear to be serious distance limitations, she's also slow ( at least going a distance of ground ) and this alone disqualifies her from winning a race like the Derby. She's a fast horse, and may prove a very good one, but not in the KY Derby. Thankfully I imagine Bob Baffert realizes this. But, hey, at least you didn't put The Slowhouse on your list. You seemed to have learned from last year that a slow sibling to Circular Quay might not be a great idea for a Derby horse.

By the way......I know in a short period of time I said she's both " fast " and " slow " but I will assume a man of your stature knows what I mean and won't attempt to take a cheap shot.....especially about such an important issue.

I don't believe this either.

It's often a convenient excuse to say that so many foes didn't fire because of the sloppy track. They said the same thing about War Pass. They said the same thing about Smarty Jones in his Derby. How come it's only the good horses that fire under those circumstances? I could see if she dramatically outran her form due to the slop but she didn't. The race played out EXACTLY like it was predicted to had the race been on dry land. Same thing with the Juvenile. Neither race was won oddly. This wasn't like Easy Goer thrashing Is It True a few times and then Is It True turning the tables on the off track in the Juvenile.

I know exactly what you meant. I guess that I just don't see her distance limitations. I see a horse that has done what she's needed to do so far and done it in effortless fashion. I don't hold it against her that her rider was just coasting with easy wins already in hand while those behind her were riding away trying to get bigger pieces of the purse. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit that.

War Pass winning the Derby is almost as bad as saying Indian Blessing is going to win the Derby.

Here are my top 5

1) Etched
2) Colonel John
3) Check It Twice
4) Court Vision
5) Pyro

All of her foes in that race weren't much to start with.

I'm not someone who has any doubt of her raw talent - go watch her debut (at 5.5fs) and than go watch Seattle Slew's first two career races.

She isn't exactly a female Seattle Slew to say the least - her tremendous raw speed has allowed her to win a pair of weak Grade 1 routes inspite of her staggering home late in both races.

Her dam was a confirmed sprinter...and there isn't exactly anything you can pull out of the pedigree in a desperate attempt to make her look like she will stay 10 furlongs inspite of her clearly showing she can't on her 2yo form.

She probably has a much better shot of winning next years F&M Sprint than the Ky Oaks - let alone the Derby.

I also think you need to think more of the quality of the horses that were finishing behind Indian Blessing. It may be extremely limited....at least on the dirt.

None of the horses in her pedigree are running in the race so they don't matter. She is. Would you believe an Elusive Quality and Tale of the Cat offspring exacta in a race in which some of the other fancied horses were by Gulch and Pulpit? Pedigree is not as important these days as it used to be.

I don't care if she was by Dynaformer out of an A.P. Indy mare - I've seen enough of her to know she's not seeing out 10 furlongs in a race like the Derby - and further I think she is better suited to sprint races.

Who cares about the Kentucky Derby anymore? It is just a niche race for horses that specialize in doing odd things like running on real dirt and going 10 furlongs.
I just view it as a stupid old-fashioned distraction to the far more important 8.5f poly races later in the summer.
I'll have my top twenty list for Arlington's Round Table Stakes out by later tonight.

Come on KG, you are better than that. You know nobody is saying she can't win because of her pedigree, or that a horse with a less than impressive 10f pedigree can't win the Kentucky Derby.
Her pedigree is just one of the many knocks against her. In this case, it also seems to be confirmed by what we have seen from her on the track. She appears to have definite distance limitations.

I didn't start watching this game last week. I'd hope that in 20+ years, I've picked up a little something and I just don't see these same limitations that you all see. Maybe it will become clearer to me later but at this point, I don't see them.

I know you didn't start watching the game last week, which is why I think it is a bit unusual that you don't think she is probably limited in terms of her ability to get 10f effectively. Look at her Frizette and BCJF races. Did she win them both impressively? Yes, but she sure looked like she was dead spent at the end of both. Now, we all know that this fact in and of itself is not enough to dismiss a horse's chances when stretched out, but when you couple the way she has looked on the track with her pedigree, there is really no logical reason to think she CAN do it effectively enough to win a race like the Kentucky Derby.
What is it about her that makes you think she WILL be effective at 10f? You seem to be taking the position that we should assume she will be able to do it, because she hasn't proven otherwise. I don't think that makes good handicapping sense.

Oh and by the way, I hate making predictions this far away from the race, but if I HAD to make a selection now I would probably put Anak Nakal at #1.....despite the fact that he only ran an 86 BSF in his last.

My list starts out
1. Anak Nakal
2. Colonel John
3. Into Mischief
4. War Pass
5. Pyro

On the "3yo's to watch" side I would look for include:

Cassoulet ~ Graham Motion trainee won a Laurel allowance in style, training at Palm Meadows.
Denis of Cork ~David Carroll colt was an impressive maiden winner at Churchill Downs. He’s at the Fair Grounds for the winter.
Imaginary Sailor ~Jerry Hollendorfer always has a good one or two at his NorCal base
Mad Flatter ~ Jeff Thornbury colt won a CD maiden then a Fair Grounds allowance in style. Entered in the Lecompte
Riley Tucker ~ Hasn’t run since a 2nd in the Arlington Futurity, may turn up at Mott’s FL base.
Globetrotter ~ Son of Street Cry won the G3 Grey BC last fall for Graham Motion.
Legacy Thief ~ Won a fast allowance at Gulfstream on Saturday for Wayne Lukas

Well maybe out of those 20+ years you can point us to a horse that tries to run off every step of the way, as Indian Blessing does, relaxing enough to win the KY Derby.

I don't take the position that she will be great at 10f. That's not how I evaluate things. I don't think Groovy would be a great 10f runner either. However, if his competition was Meafara, Safely Kept, Very Subtle, and Pine Tree Lane, I'd increase his chances of winning at 10f. For me, it's about the competition that they will face more than their ability to handle a certain distance or surface. If she were facing true 10f horses, I might look at things different. But I don't see any horses that I think are true 10f horses in the entire crop. Well, let me ammend that. I see some but I think they are too slow. I didn't see a tired horse in her races. I saw a horse that I thought if they went around again, they still wouldn't have caught her. I'm not sure what is the best way to try to handicap things. If she was trying to do something against horses that had already proven they could do it, that would be different. But at this point, she's gone as far as any of them have and looked better, at least to me, than most of them have. I have never fallen into the camp that says that the way a horse finishes a race at one distance is a sure sign as to how they'll finish at another. I've seen 100's of late running sprinters that people think will relish the stretchout to 7f or a mile and they fail. I've seen many that finish well at 9f and people think that they are crying out for the 10th furlong of the Derby and they fail. I think that what we've seen is a horse that was trained and raced at 8.5f and she ran that distance.

There is no chance Indian Blessing races in the derby, much less win. NO CHANCE. I'm hard pressed to come up with a horse more unsuitable.

Groovy would lose in your hypo Derby because everytime he was hooked he lost and he would most certainly would have got hooked in there. He did actually run in the Derby and did about as well as Indian Blessing would.