Should Have
 

I'm sure this has been gone over before but just watching a few races on Youtube reminded me of something; Dinard would have been the 1991 Kentucky Derby winner had he not been injured and pulled from the race. This got me to wondering which other horses should have made the list of Derby winners but didn't make the race. Who are the others that people think would have won it had they made it. I don't want horses that made it and had bad luck and lost.

Dinard
Event of the Year
King Glorious
Java Gold
Dehere

Dehere would have had trouble running down the loose speed. His only decent effort going two turns was in the Fountain of Youth which was orchestrated by a crazy speed duel involving Holy Bull ( who actually did flip his palate ) and, I think, Ride the Rails. He may well have been essentially a closing sprinter.

As for Java Gold, I'm a huge fan, but it's not as though Alysheba and Bet Twice were slouches. While he obviously hammered them in the Travers, the track was a quagmire that day, and it's fair to say they didn't run their races. Considering the kind of horse Alysheba proved to be it's a little unfair to just assume Java Gold was better.

The horse that sticks out IMO is AP Indy who was scratched with a foot problem very close to the race.

King Glorious was a 3yo in 1989 and could not have beaten Sunday Silence going 10f if Sunday Silence had all 4 legs tied together and was made to run backwards.

don't remember the year, but i thought Buddha had an outstanding chance.

Stuff like this is impossible to know for sure but I would go with Gilded Time in 1993. The undefeated 2yo champ with a dam-side pedigree that suggested he might like 10f was injured while preparing for his 3yo campaign in SoCal.
I don't think he was the second coming of Affirmed or anything, but neither was that year's winner, Sea Hero.

As much as I believe JG was the best of that group, that year would have been the hardest year to win it because it was the deepest group of 3yos I've ever seen. Same goes with KG. I thought he was the best one but it's hard to put him over EG and Sunday Silence at 10f.

I don't know about that. In the same way BTW is saying that Dehere might have had trouble running down the lone speed in 1993, Sunday Silence and EG might have had trouble running down the lone speed of King Glorious in 1989. No doubt that at 10f, it would have taken a huge effort on KG's part but with him having shown he could handle an off track in the Hollywood Futurity, I would have liked my chances going in if I were Hollendorfer and McCarron. Lone speed is a strong equalizer. Winning Colors, War Emblem, Go for Gin were all able to win it when most people expected they wouldn't last. Hard Spun, Lion Heart, Indian Charlie and Peace Rules didn't win but hung in a lot longer than expected.

Red Bullet.

ap indy and dinard are no brainers in my estimation.

Grand canyon.

swear, a truly magnificent 2yo that died before turning 3. he was in the snow chief crop i believe.

perhaps red ransom as a real longshot here.
saratoga six too

i vehemently disagree with event of the year

Grand Canyon would have been a 3yo in 1990 along with Unbridled and Summer Squall.

thank you

i think unbridled's song would have won if he did not have a quarter crack, bar shoe's and the 20th gate position.

i mean grindstone and cavonieer, come on!

IRGUN in 1994

Unbridled's Song ran in the race. He doesn't count.

how about rags to riches.. she could have won.

But she wouldn't have.

Highly unlikely in my opinion.

Dehere was a VERY nice horse.. but he would have had no shot whatsoever at 10F

Here's that IDEAL set up he had in the Fountain of Youth... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoDOQ-pdO0A

Rockport Harbor... Talk about bad luck.

Talk about overrated.

Didn't Rockport Harbor get beaten handily by a third-string Pletcher horse in the Lexington?

NT

Even if you accept the delusion that Rockport Harbor was an exceptionally talented horse, he had exactly the wrong running style for the 2005 Kentucky Derby, and would have gotten drowned.

The way the '05 Derby played out I think Survivalist might have outfinished Rockport Harbor.

NT

Luck? The horse is by Unbridleds Song. Are we supposed to be shocked that he wasn't able to stay healthy?
Add in the fact that his signature victory came over the great Galloping Grocer and I think he fails to qualify for this discussion.
In an unrelated matter, he is also one of the ugliest damn horses I have seen in years.

What about Man o' War?

He probably would have slaughtered everyone mentioned.

The last Preakness/Belmont winner not to have run in the Derby, I believe.

Were you too old to hold a paper route at that time?

No but I was doing a stretch in reform school at the time.

timely writer

2002, and I disagree (even though I love his trainer), Buddha was a pretty sorry excuse for a Derby favorite (almost as bad as the actual ML favorite, Harlan's Holiday.)

Devil's Bag was the one I'll always lament.

Also, before my time but Key to the Mint was probably the winner in '72 had he gone in the Derby.

I'm also glad no one has said Bernardini yet, because he wasn't winning the Derby at that point in his career last year.

Thanks for reminding me. Add Bernardini to my list. I don't see why he couldn't have won it. He was good enough to win the Preakness two weeks later. I know, I know. I thought he was good enough to win the Preakness anyway though so I don't think two weeks earlier, he wouldn't have been able to beat Barbaro.

Devils Bag was done well before that Derby. Now, if the 2YO Devils Bag showed up......

Yeah, his win in the Withers was much better than Barbaro's Derby.

Put down the pipe.

Touch Gold

Montreal Red

I don't see the point. Barbaro was prepped to be at his peak in the Derby. Bernardini wasn't. Had he been, from what I saw of Bernardini last year, I have no reason to believe he couldn't have been just as good or better than Barbaro in the Derby had they decided to go that route earlier and had the time. His win in the Withers was a 104 figure. I guess that sucks for a third career start number. It doesn't make sense to me that a horse can run a 113 figure in mid-May but couldn't run a 111 two weeks before? If he wouldn't have been capable of running a 111 two weeks before but could do a 113 two weeks later, maybe Bernardini needs to be on the Mitchell Report.

IMO she had a great shot at winning, I just dont think SS is all that good.

Rockport Harbor was never healthy after the Remsen...

He needed that Withers start. No way he would have been ready for the Derby off a maiden win- you don't seriously believe he could have beaten Barbaro do you? The Preakness is a different race, and (unfortunately) it fell into his hands after Barbaro went down.

Yeah, I know. I remember waiting for the newspaper to show up the next day to find out what he did in the race before the Flamingo (Everglades I think?) and when he was kind of average I was disappointed, then the terrible performance in the Flamingo... still, something was wrong and if he had made it healthy to Churchill he would have destroyed that field.

And wasn't that good up until then...