Aqueduct - 11/29
 

Sitting on the fence as of now. May roll a pick6 if the 6th race comes off the Turf. If it stays on, maybe a pick4.

P Dave - Saw you were looking for input on a few legs. Which races? Maybe we can draw some guidance from the pros or anyone with an opinion for that matter...

The 4th is ON and the 6th is OFF.

BTW - Thanks for predicting that yesterday. Let me focus on the right stuff last night. Although I'm sure it won't help...

I'm leaning toward playing a pick6 focusing on the MTO "Most Charming" in the 6th. Any knocks against her here?

Yes and no. Obviously off her last race she probably towers over the remnants of this race, but her prior efforts aren't enough to justify her very short price, and to trust a horse at that price that is both ex-Bruce Levine ( the hardest guy to claim from in NY ) and off a win in NJ is not something I am willing to do.

Liking her makes it easy, as otherwise it's a cluster****, and pretty much an unplayable sequence. But those are usually the situations where we get ourselves into trouble......the old " I'll just assume this one will win " just doesn't work.

Considering how I feel about the 7th race I probably won't get involved anyway.

7th is by far my deep leg with coverage to 4 and a 5th as a cover (which may still not be enough).

Maybe she does seem a bit too good to be true here. I will see about pick6 after scratches and perhaps try to cover her in a pick4 as I will at least get to see the tote.

Tote certainly seemed to be a tip off to Contessa's runner in the 6th yesterday (even though Dirt form looked poor on paper).

See what happens...

The 8th race is one that has interest to me....
Linda Rice has Noble Fire in there....This filly caught my eye during training hours.
Schwartz's Cape Cod Escape gets a big jockey change...
Dutrow's filly Jovanna had a mdn win that was pretty nice..

To me the Dutrow runner (Jovanna) looks pretty scary off the freshening. Think repeat of Toga performance would make her very tough. Although the rider named there seems a bit odd.

I gave Noble Fire high consideration as well as the Jerkins runner.

But I'm a hack, and even at that I'm usually best staying away from 2YO's so I would be interested to see what others think.

Good luck!

R2 - #9 Eternal Ridge
R8 - #8 Noble Fire

Not only should there have been an inquiry in the second race but the winner should have been disqualified.

why, I didn't see it

Andy-

Do you think they'll be on the turf tommorow?

Race 3 Coa looks to have the lone early speed

or not...

The " winner " drifted out four paths herding the horse who would have won as he was going by.

Hey, I do it when I play Gallop Racer. I guess these stewards think that's fair. Or else they were at Don Pepi's having lunch.

At least one though considering there has been no rain since they drew yesterday they should both be on.

Agree
 

pmacdaddy agree with your assessment in the feature. Both Jovanna and Noble Fire have good numbers to run back to although Noble Fire did bounce in the last race... Jerkins could move up to a new top and be in the hunt.

Looks like the fave will be tough to beat in the nightcap with the fastest figs by far and the Contessa magic....

PSH

Thanks

Decided to bag the pick6. Try a few pk4 tix instead....

Have a $360 pk6 play mapped out but not confident enough to play it. Guess I will just see how she does and hope the wheels fall off and it Carries again.

I don't see Noble Fire at all. Her second race was horrendous and being that it was six weeks after her debut I don't understand how even if you believe in bounce ( which I don't ) you could suggest that. I think it is more a situation of yet another unreliable 5F race. We've seen many of them.

Jovanna may win, but the scratch helps Palmetto Bluffs and if Jovanna and Palmetto Bluffs go at it then Anlyn can win.

I bet Jambalaya Joy in the 4th. She had a lot of trouble in her last race and is not necessarily worse than the favorites. Hopefully in a reasonably small field the hopeless Jermaine Bridgmohan won't do anything dramatically wrong.

Educate me here....how was that race horrendous...she broke from an outside post...got hooked early... 1st qtr went in .22&1...got beat a length...in a Statebred 100k Stake

It was a terrible field that she looked to have over a barrel at 3:5. This is a tougher group. I agree that the first quarter was reasonably fast but she had a soft outside stalking position and in my opinion lost to extremely weak horses. To me the three I mentioned are all potentially better than anyone in her last race.

Sure glad I passed on the pick6 as I used first two winners as cover horses, but not on the same ticket.

Now, even if I blow my pick4's I will still save a good chunk of change....

The board didn't lie about Contessa there either.

Egypt Lane in the 7th. Worth a shot here with Bravo up. Hope she doesn't hang!!

Yeah. Once I saw Contessa left him in I was concerned about going too hard against him. I went back and weighted him evenly with the MTO in my pick4 plays.

Not that going 2 deep to get a $4.80 winner is anything to brag about...

No, but at least you covered.

I pretty much singled the winner in a small play. I used 3, 4, and 9 in the 7th.

7th I have coverage to - 1,,3,4,6,7

3rd Race
 

Hill - Hushion angle again...getting nice value still, (12.40) something to consider

Missed that one (only capped last 6). Maybe I have not paid enough attention before, but I don't recall those two clicking at this rate in the past.

nice a $24 winner has got to add value to your ticket

Thanks.....and now I look forward to Noble Fire eliminating me.

I used 1, 3 and 4 in the 8th.

not gonna saya word....

Nice call there! What made you use him going away from Dutrow? I think I may discount those a bit too much. A tough line to walk...

Pick4 is shaping up a lot like yesterday. Hope the MTO took a ton of cash in the pool and you are onto a good parlay. Have to think Anlyn would help the cause immensely.

I'm live in the pic3 to the 1, 6, & 9

Good luck!

Any in the last create a Carry?

not even close....



crinkle...



crinkle...




Trash can....

You don't have to. Nobody got more punished by that particular bad opinion of mine than I did. The Pick-4 paid over 4 dimes and I obviously used the last winner. Unfortunately I bet 20% today of what I bet on him last time.

It's actually sadly ironic......I misjudged the 8th winner's last race and you made a similar mistake with the 9th winner. Take a very good luck at his race two back.

We both phucked up.

102k Carry-over tomorrow