11/22: CD 9-12; AQU/FG/HOL Stakes
 

Wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.. Thursday's action a prelude to an amazing 3 days to follow.. Challenging CD P4 the focus with a glance at the Fall Highweight (AQU) and Gr. III Prevue (HOL) below..


CHURCHILL DOWNS

Very quirky late P4 at the Downs today with potential for more than one price on the heels of Wednesday's late P3 which featured $60 and $101 winners ($25,252).. Panty Raid a clear bet-against within the featured Falls City (Gr. II)..

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, DD, O/U, Super)

Most Likely: #4 TIME FLIES 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Clear Thinking 5-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Somethingintheway 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 St Lo 15-1 10th


10th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Hold the Salt 9-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Cowboy Hardware 10-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Storm Marcopolo 5-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Man of Danger 7-2 2nd


11th: Falls City Handicap (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 9f (DD, O/U, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Tessa Blue 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Kettleoneup 4-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Delicate Dynamite 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Panty Raid 6-5 3rd


12th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #1 League of Nations 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Dictina's Boy 10-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Lemon Custard 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Xela 5-1 9th


P4 Play:

Main ticket:

9: 4
10: 1-6-7-9
11: 1-2-6-7
12: 1-3-8-10

3x4x4x4 = $64


Backup:

9: 6-8
10: 1-6-7
11: 1-2-6-7 $1 P3 (8-1-1) $656.00
12: 1

2x3x4x1 = $24


AQUEDUCT


8th: 94th Fall Highweight H., 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 City Attraction 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Joey P. 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Grand Champion 5-2 WON
Trifecta Add: #2 Around the Cape 12-1 7th



FAIR GROUNDS


9th: 82nd Thanksgiving H., 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 STORMIN BAGHDAD 15-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Zarb's Dahar 8-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Going Wild 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Thunder Mission 7-2 3rd



HOLLYWOOD


7th: 26th Hollywood Prevue (Gr. III), 2yo, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Massive Drama 7-2 WON
Best Value: #10 Bob Black Jack 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Into Mischief 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Courageous Son 20-1 7th


Good luck!
Steve

how the hell is church gonna run 12 races if they start at 2.30 ct

Hooves, CD starts at 10:30am CT today, early post for the Big A as well. Happy Thanksgiving

damn it said 2.30 on bris....thanks bogey

I thought I might give Holly a look today and go after the carry.

Tough sequence, could get expensive...distinct possibility for a two day carry tomorrow....

Aqua 1st
 

Gigawatt shows no real form BUT been running against monsters most the last year. Alot of early pace but can't help but believe this ones going to be close.

Spyder

Aqua 1
 

Someone put a chunk on the 7 to win, other pools are even so some smart money there...might pay as much to place right now in the pools

Spyder

Aqua 1
 

The 7 who is a heavy favorite has the second lowest amount in the show pool and fifth lowest in the place pool. You usually don't see that.

Has floated from 4/5 to 2/1 but still alot on the nose

Spyder

It feels like a " they knew. "

Last time he ran, he looked like a short priced favorite, having been pre-entered in the BC Mile and took no money. Sending to the lead and running up the track was odd, and now he's pounded.

Guess they didn't know he's get left at the gate, huh! "Balcony Jumpers"

Is today's late P4 a $6200+ carry?

I will take small WP shot on Cast the Dye in AQU 2nd for some Turkey Day action.

westmorland.. lol

High Heels today in the Falls City and Into Mischief (2-1 or better only) in the HWood Prevue.
I'll give Joe Johnson one more chance to get in the winner's circle with HH.

Happy Thanksgiving to all and best of luck!!!

Declan, I agree with you on High Heels, this just seems like the spot where she gets it done.

$66 Cd R9 P4
 

1,8 // 7 // 4,6 // 4,6
1,8 // 6,9 // 4,6 // 4,6,3
9 // 7 // 2 // 4,6
9 // 10 // 4,6 // 4,6
9 // 6,9 // 2 // 4,6,3
9 // 7 // 4,6 // 4,6,3
9 // 6,9 // 4,6 // 4,6,3,11

Yea, the only thing that I am worried about is the lack of pace to run at. I think she'll be able to overcome that and with a nicely timed move by JJ, she'll be there at the finish.
Best of luck Bogey!!
Did you see that Cobra Strike runs in an allowance at Pha on the 24th?? He didnt run a lick last out, and I apologize for touting him like that to you. He finds a softer spot but his potential price indicates that. ( 9/5 ml) He should roll this time.

all the posts on this board are 1 hour earlier than my time. Anybody know how to fix that? For example, Declan's last post says 11:42 but it's only 10:42 here -- it messes me up.

Go to User CP, then Edit Options, then scroll down to date and time options.

Thanks!

Holly 2nd
 

6 - Only First Class

If anyone is watching BigA and could post result of 8th and 9th. I would greatly appreciate it.

Daughter put a Strawberry Shortcake DVD on my in-laws only cable TV when I when to prep some food...

Race 8
 

4 - Grand Champion $6.40
7 - Joey P
5 - City Attraction

HP 3rd
 

pick3

2 3 4 5 // 3 6 7 8 9 11 12 14 // 2
$32

Thanks

I'm hoping Mighty Gulch gets in the mix in the nightcap...

Way to beat the odds on chalk AJ...

thanks.
can you believe how much the best the 4 was?
the rail closed on him in a slow pace so he goes around and mows 'em down.
wish i would have singled him but wasn't sure.

He set the pace with the 2 & 6 and all three faded.

7 - Golden Man $9.60
4 - Ferocious Won
11 - My Apology

Holly 4th
 

Wow, the 7 just went from 5-2 to 3-5 in one flash at 4mtp.

Oh well also used Golden Man on top of 1 and 11 in exacta, but didn't use Ferocious Won.

That's it for me today....

Time for some Vino and Bird. Hope we get a Carryover to chase over the long weekend..

$30k + at the Big A for tomorrow.

Happy Thanksgiving AJ! $572.90 for a buck!

Nice 'capping.

$572 makes it a nice Thanksgiving.
thanks bigs, i love closers at 7F at Holly.

the best part is i'm real deep in this pick 3 going forward needing
2 3 4 8 9 11 // 4 5 7 10 13 in the 6th and 7th.

hope to keep the prices coming.

Nice day AJ, always a good thing when your one opinion comes in and get some solid prices around.

Nice job AJ. Some good racing this long weekend. Keep it rollin...

Steve,

Good call on Stormin Baghdad. Plunked some win $$ this AM and was pleasantly surprised when I checked results. See he was 15-1 ML, but only paid $7.

Was there a bunch of scratches or did he just get hammered?

steve,
Thanks for posting picks! I played along while enjoying family time and turned a profit. Would have been larger if NY existed on xpressbet. Happy Thanksgiving and thank you for your continued hard work.

AJ,

Nice capping hitting the rolling pick3. Made for a very profitable Turkey day.

thanks guys, that one key horse in the fifth made a nice day for me. good timing too with nice weekend cards coming up.