Commentator is back
 

Racing on Wednesday....
here is the link from DRF.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/76321.html

Cool!..Here is another horse that could add significant intrigue to this year's BC Sprint if Zito doesn't get wacky and stretch him out again....I think he would have won the BC Sprint last year had he not run the poor little horse in the second race when he faced Saint Liam going long last year....After he beat him the first time I remember telling a cooworker that, "Crap, now that he won going long by getting loose on the lead that Zito will ruin him keeping him long when this horse's best shot at a BC win would be in the Sprint."...sure enough I was right....he is just a small horse and is so fast that having that poor little bastard go 1 1/8-miles is not at all right for him...

Welllllllllllll, I wish he had run in the Forego after the Whitney last year as well, and....whatever.

I just hope he runs well tomorrow and then we can worry about what the right races are. Whichever they may be, this is a SERIOUS racehorse.

Classic tweener.

Insanely fast horse, but not quick enough to beat the six-furlong specialists, and doesn't have enough stamina to win the Classic.

This is why we need a BC Dirt Mile more than any other race. For the 7-8 panel horses like him, Pico Central, Forest Danger, Love of Money, etc.

How can you say he's not quick enough to beat the supposed 6F specialists.

He has a TON of speed, unlike an Aldabaron, and would hardly be badly outrun in, say, the BC Sprint. Do you honestly believe he wouldn't be MUCH closer than Taste of Paradise who arguably was the winner of the BC Sprint last year?

And, yes, he also has more speed than Silver Train.

What he really needs to do is stay sound.

I agree...I think he can be a legit BC Sprint horse, especially now that he's older and probably more mature....he just needs to be able to relax and rate somewhat against horses that will carve out a faster first quarter than him (unless he hooks them early and then he will be deadmeat), but this horse has displayed insane speed and has shown that 1:08 is very attainable with his speed on a consistent basis.....I think he was classy enough to stretch out under the right scenario last year, but there is no way that I think he is just a 'tweener'...I think 6 furlongs in teh BC Sprint could be right up his alley in November...

I think he wins the BC Sprint, but watch out for Rumspringa.

You're telling me he can run with Henny Hughes, Too Much Bling, Lost in the Fog, Anew and the rest of them for six furlongs? I don't think so. There's a reason he's never been shorter than seven furlongs and a reason they keep trying to stretch him out. He's not a six-furlong horse.

I agree Ateam. While Commentator has tons of speed going longer, that doesnt necessarily translate into making the lead in 6F sprints when you have horses like Anew & Lost in the Fog who can run 21 and change.
I think his best races would come at 7F or 1 mile. I do think he could have won the Forego last summer had he run in it. Big difference between 6F and 7F races, especially the Forego and the BC Sprint.

First of all, if the Commentator of last year was lining up against the four horses you just named the only one who MIGHT be a shorter price is Lost in the Fog. I suggest you take a serious look at his pps as from what you are posting it doesn't feel like you have really looked at them.

He didn't run in the BC Sprint in 2004 because he had just started racing and he didn't race in it last year because he was hurt. They do not " keep trying to stretch him out ". They stretched him out for the Donn for the first time and he subsequently came up with an injury. When Nick asked me my opinion about whether or not he should run him in the Whitney last year ( I only mention this because he thanked me in the winner's circle after the race both to the press and ESPN ) I pointed out that they didn't know if he could stretch effectively because it wasn't clear if he was injured in the Donn and he didn't exactly embarrass himself that day in light of the lightning fast pace he set. Therefore, it seemed like as good a time as any to find out, especially because there was really only one genuinely good horse to beat.

Pretty funny that you say that, because I've had his past performances open in Acrobat since last night and have been glancing at them a lot the last 12 hours.

What I see is a horse who's never been shorter than seven furlongs and has only run one race (The N3X win last year) that suggests he's got six-furlong speed. I see a horse who has started the year sprinting twice, and stretched out to nine furlongs both times. I see a horse who has never passed another horse in any of his wins and would UNDOUBTEDLY need to do that to win the Sprint.

Your point about LITF being the only one potentially shorter priced seems pretty irrelevant. So because people would bet on him (mostly just because he has high figures), that means he'd have a shot in the BC Sprint?

The odds actually are pretty much a perfect ( less takeout of course ) interpretation of horses' actual chances of winning over time.

He actually had only one start last year before trying the Whitney.

I think you need to not only take a good look at his speed figures but also look at them relative to the horses you have mentioned. This horse is in a different league than some you mentioned.

I understand 6F is a question, but considering his running style and raw talent it is FAR from out of the question. One thing I would liketo see, and you brought this up, would be a win while rating. If he can successfully sit a couple lengths off horses, and he is as good this year as last, he won't just win the BC Sprint...he will drown them.

Ooops, didn't mean to criticize Zito stretching him out, I guess :D ....Sorry, but I never liked that little horse going long at all....I see the mentality behind it do to the fact that they were short Gr. I fields with only one legit horse to beat - But, I think we all knew that Commentator would be a BC Sprint candidate before he was a BC Classic candidate, and that late in the year I didn't want to see him jeopardized going that long against a tough horse like Saint Liam...I reallt had him pegged as the BC Sprint winner and that is why when I following him late last year I was disappointed to see him go long for such a little horse....Even if he would have beat Saint Liam again, I really had serious reservations about him holding up on a fast pace and winning the BC Classic...I didn't see it happening....and if they would have run him in the BC Sprint, I just didn't like the fact that he would be turning back in that quick of time to have him dead ready and sharp to be ready for his best at 6 furlongs against the fastest horses in the world.....I just didn't agree with the decision process but I could see why he did it....he was clearly thinking more for the short term than long term (or two months down the road for the BC)...

Did I just read that right?

I don't know. If you think it is wrong then perhaps you didn't.

How extensive a study of this have you done?

I think he's a better sprinter as well. That does not, however, preclude stretching him in the right situation. It seems the most important thing is finding a way to keep him sound. If he's sound he has all the ability in the world.

I agree...he is a talented little devil

I guess it must be hard to find false favorites then, considering the odds of a horse are the perfect indicator as to what that horse's chances of winning are..

As a matter of fact, why even run the race? Let's just see how the public bets, then divide the purse accordingly!

You should think about both the post you are responding to and your response before making snide answers.

Maybe you should REALLY reread what I wrote. What I said was " The odds actually are pretty much a perfect ( less takeout of course ) interpretation of horses' actual chances of winning OVER TIME.

I could be snide, and nasty, as well, and my response would make a lot more sense. But I won't be....yet. I will simply say that you are wrong and learning and understanding this will help you as a horseplayer.

I would like to see him tune up with a nice 6 furlong race. I would then like to see him go long in his final BC prep. Then enter him in the BC Sprint--boy that turn back in distance angle will be HUGE for me in handicapping the sprint this year.

I understood your point. What you overlooked is the fact that we aren't talking about the accuracy of odds OVER TIME. We're talking about the Breeders' Cup Sprint, and you made the "point" that, if Commentator lined up against the horses I mentioned earlier, he would be "no worse than second choice", as if that has any bearing on how he would run against them.

I never said anything about odds being inaccurate over time. I said that just because Commentator would be "no worse than second choice" doesn't make him any more likely to win the BCS than if he were fifth choice.

Then why was your previous smart ass response necessary? Perhaps you would do better to give your actual point and not snide remarks that don't reflect well on you.

In response to this last post, I would say if the odds are accurate over time, then any random snapshot rates to be accurate. Obviously, as horsepleyers, we attempt to exploit inaccuracies in just this. On the other hand, do you honestly believe that in any random race we are always going to be correct in OUR assumptions of relative chances of winning?

Personally, by the way, if you lined Commentator up against the four horses you mentioned, assuming all were in their primes, at 6F, I believe Commentator should be 4:5. I suppose should Henny Hughes demonstrate his debut this year was legit he could be a threat, but based on all of their career races, Commentator is a superior animal...at least on his best day versus their best days.

You may not realize it, but you have a habit of talking down to people on here, and it gets pretty irritating. And I have a habit of being a smartass. I think we'll get along just fine. ;)

We're gonna have to agree to disagree on Commentator, but I still say the point you made about his odds is still completely irrelevant and I think most would agree.

I dont think a 6F win is out of the question for Commentator. But a 6F win in the BC Sprint against real nice horses who undoubtedly find 6F as their best distances like Lost in the Fog, Bordonaro, Anew, Kellys Landing, Henny Hughes and Proud Tower Too seems a bit unlikely.

I think his better chance for glory comes in longer races he can steal away on the front end and I think a win in the BC Classic would be more likely than a win in the BC Sprint.

I guess I need to talk down to more people here if they agree with you on the odds issue.

I'm open to any intelligent defense of your side. I certainly haven't heard one.

By the way, that wasn't talking down, that was honesty.

I'm the one that needs an intelligent defense?

Your "point" is that because Commentator would be "no worse than second choice" in the BC Sprint, that somehow makes him more likely to win to win the race than if he were third or fourth choice, and I have no intelligent defense?

Guess the horses learned how to read odds, because you seem to think how the races are bet affect how the horses run.

So as not to appear to be talking down to you I will be as succinct as possible...

That response was your stupidest and least thought out yet. The only thing you are demonstrating is that you don't have a clue as to what I am talking about. Sorry, you are also demonstrating a complete lack of understanding of probability.

At the risk of talking down to you, as you don't seem to be leaving me much choice, statistically speaking the second choice has a better chance of winning ( this means he WILL win more often ) than the third or fourth choice.

We need some BC Futures now. Why doesn't horse racing put up some BC Futures up this time of year? I know some people here have some pull, how about suggesting it to somebody.

That has long been talked about....Churchill Downs owns the Derby and Oaks so they can implement that wager on their races, but the NTRA and BC committee would have to initiate a BC future wager.....I agree 110% that there is a market for it.....BTW, Vegas allows future wagering on the BC but I don't think they have begun it yet if I'm not mistaken....

Just my two pennies worth...

In race 3 on 7/12, Belmont, I don't think there will be any value at all.
That said, and I'm going out there against the Zito/Coa combo, but I think
the #2 will be beaten by two others. #6 Gold and Roses with GG in the irons, and #1 Bold Decision for Laurie Lafavers will cross the line ahead. I'm not sure whether it will be 6/1 or 1/6. The 2 will get up for the tri.

Good luck!
DTS

As will I (be succinct)..

I made the point that I don't believe Commentator can keep up with Henny Hughes, Anew, Too Much Bling, Lost in the Fog, etc. at six furlongs.

Your response, essentially was:

"Well, out of those four, probably only Lost in the Fog will take more money!"

Kudos.

Your point is ridiculous. Using your logic, I can pick out any race I want at any track in America and say, because Horse X is the second choice in a race, that this horse has the second best chance to win said race.

I never get to Vegas and the online sites don't have it either. You would think there would be a nice market for it. I bet in each of the 3 pools for the KY Derby. I have an itch to bet Sweetnorthernsaint in the Classic after he killed me in the derby futures.

Oh boy!

Yes " I can pick out any race I want at any track in America and say, because Horse X is the second choice in a race, that this horse has the second best chance to win said race " this is not only true according to my " logic " but it is true statistically and would be proven just that over time. In fact, believe it or not, this is the entire point. This is a mathematical concept and NOT a handicapping one and I have NEVER claimed it was anything else. YOU may be insinuating I have but I think if you really reread the chain of events in this thread, you will see that is not the case.

I understand full well that there will be many races where you or I will NOT think the second choice is the second likeliest winner ( and believe it or not, in a true mathematical universe, we will also probably be right in this assumption on occasion ). That, however, is not, nor was it ever, the point I was making.

Honestly, I think you, Byk and I could probably hash this out over a drink sometime this summer. Byk can bring along his abacus in a desperate attempt to keep up.

I really wonder how much Commentator will get out of this race. Basically a public workout. Nobody can accuse Zito of over-placing this horse.

LOL. Sounds good, Mr. S. No hard feelings.

None whatsoever.

JJP,
I don't think it's a public workout at all. Remember, there are other trainers that entered because they think they can win besides Nick Z.
We'll see.
DTS

DTS... No way!! Unless he sustains an injury in this race, there's no way any of these can keep up with Commentator... you're right though, not much betting value in this race.

It will be interesting to watch. I don't think it's implausible that this horse can go 10f. He's very lightly raced and people thought he'd never stretch to 9F, especially after he stopped bad going 2-turns in Florida early last year. But he ran huge in the Whitney as we know. And, for all we know, he could come back even better.

Be interesting to see if they try to take back a bit here, just for the hell of it. Either way, as long as he runs well here, how can you bet against him at Saratoga?