SCORECARD: Weekend of Parity
 

15 graded stakes have been run since Friday's kickoff at KEE... (Granted the races are far flung with regions represented widely (BEL-MED, LRL, KEE-HOO, SA), but the success is still being remarkably spread around..

15 different trainers have won the 15 races, (including Rusty Arnold, Lynn Whiting, Ben Perkins Jr., Frank Brothers and John Glenney)..

An interesting sidelight? No Pletcher-Velasquez.. No Mott-Desormeaux.. No Biancone-Leparoux.. And mercifully, only one Asmussen..

13 different riders on board, (including Jimmy Graham, Larry Melancon and Jamie Theriot)... with only Corny Velasquez (MED Cup, Jamaica) and Robby Albarado (Breeders', IN Derby) gettings pairs..


The winning trainer-jock combos through Sunday:

ALCIBIADES (Gr. I): Frankel-Bejarano (Country Star)
MED CUP: Dutrow-C. Velasquez (Diamond Stripes)
IN OAKS: Brothers-M. Smith (Tessa Blue)
SYCAMORE: Glenney-Graham (Transduction Gold)
SHADWELL (Gr. I): Proctor-Theriot (Purim)
BREEDERS (Gr. I): Arnold-Albarado (Wicked Style)
CHAMPAGNE (Gr. I): Zito-C. Velasquez (War Pass)
FRIZETTE (Gr. I): Baffert-Gomez (Indian Blessing)
HIRSCH (Gr. I): Drysdale-Talamo (Artiste Royal)
IN DERBY: Asmussen-Albarado (Zanjero)
FIRST LADY: Clement-Nakatani (Vacare)
TCA: Perkins-Dominguez (Wild Gams)
JAMAICA: Tagg-Castellano (Nobiz Like Shobiz)
PHOENIX: Whiting-Melancon (Off Duty)
SAFELY KEPT: M. Mitchell-J. Rose (Sindy With an S)
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JEROME: McLaughlin-Luzzi (Daaher)
SPINSTER (Gr. I): Pletcher-Gomez (Panty Raid)
LADY'S SECRET (Gr. I): Baffert-Espinoza (Tough Tiz's Sis)
OAK TREE MILE (Gr. I): Frankel-M. Baze (Out of Control)
ANCIENT TITLE (Gr. I): Sise-Flores (Idiot Proof)

20 stakes...

18 different trainers (Only Frankel & Baffert with pairs of winners..)

17 different jocks (Only C. Velasquez, Albarado & Gomez get 2 each..)

Parity in horse racing would go along way to the sport. With Pletcher on the outs and our French buddy brought down while at the same time DT stables expanding at an incredable pace, the future's looking brighter all the time.

Spyder

I haven't watch all the races yet, but any thoughts on the most impressive/eye catching? I thought No Biz and Country Star both ran big yesterday.

wiring a field on a track favorable to closers, Wicked Style gets my vote

Country Star!!! Looks like the up and comming super star. Could this be Frankles 3yr old for the big one next year.Several speculate maybe a pass on the BC.

I go with Wicked Style as well. Just an overwhelming victory winning from a bad post running the most difficult style for the track.

still one too many...

Indian Blessing was very good

to me that horse appeared to really shorten stride late.

Tough going from 5 1/2 to 1 mile while racing up close to a quick pace. She may have been tiring a bit and may not have beat much but did it nicely

Wicked Style caught my eye in the Breeders Futurity. Wired the field from the 12 post with ease at Keeneland, something that doesn't happen often if ever in the polytrack era.

I agree Wicked Style's race was very exciting.

I think we had several exciting races, Transduction Gold, Purim (yeah, I know he's already been dogged in another thread, but I'm glad for the horse and especially rider Jamie Theriot), No Biz's race was exciting. Artiste Royal with Joe Talamo was good too, except he beat The Tin Man. Off Duty too in the Phoenix although it was marred by tragedy.
LOL guess I liked most of them.

Nice day of racing, hope today is as good and with less drama than yesterday.

Was being geared down by GoGo as well...

Good mentions all around.. Couple others?

Thought Vacare ran a really nice race. Only one to really make up ground on the Frankel. And how about some love for War Pass who dashed away from anyone who tried to get to him.

i don't think gogo had to tell her to gear down, she did that on her own after the move entering the stretch. i laughed because Durkin said "the margin could have been much more". i highly doubt that she could have run any better. we'll have to see.

I thought War Pass was more impressive than Wicked Style. . . I guess WS ran against the grain on the poly but the fractions were awful slow and it's not like he lost ground from the post. . .

A/J,

Very well could be the case. One thing is certain about Champagne/Frizette winners: they are bad BC Juvy plays if they run back..

Speed was not bad yesterday at Keeneland. Most of the winners and many of the runnerups were close to the pace going short and long.

Why is that?

I'm with you. They rarely can....or do.

I'm wondering if it's because of the same reason I think the JCGC and the Arc are not good preps. Those races for so many years have been the major objective of 2yo's and it's often going to take a peak performance in order to win it. It's hard to return a few weeks later and repeat it. I wonder also how much the fact that the Belmont races are one-turn races compared to most of the BC Juveniles being two-turns has to do with it?

I don't have rules. I handicap the races and look for horses that make sense to me. I'm obviously in the minority.

I do that as well. Rules go out of the window when I think a horse is the best for a race (love Surf Cat today for example). But there have only been two horses that have won the Champagne and Juvenile and four that have won the Frizette and Juv Fillies even though quite a few of them have gone off at pretty low odds.

Most people I meet are badly dressed liars. Walk it off...

Yes, but are they balding as well?

I sense that it's because of the requirements for success in a one turn mile versus the (generally run at) two-turn mile and a sixteenth.. Utterly different and on a short turnaround between the events, the horses coming out of successful Champagne-Frizettes have gone too fast early and been punchless late in BC Juvies.

I'm not endorsing War Pass for the BC Juvenile, though obviously at this time he is as strong as anyone, but I think it is fair to say that he could well be at a stronger tactical advantage in the Juvie at Monmouth than he was at Belmont. It is easier to bottom a field out going two turns there than it is at Belmont.

I am loathe to bet one way speed horses, and the fact that War Pass has not shown an ability to rate as of now is certainly a cause for pause, but tactically he may well be stronger next time. Or not.

The Monmouth factor is a GREAT point.. Although someone, may have been Hammerle, was saying this week that MTH trackmen have been working over the surface at Oceanport considerably after BC-NTRA officials voiced their concerns from the Haskell visit.

The reason I brought up the non bet-back topic harkens to researching Champagne winners BC Juvy histories after a discussion with Lansdon Robbins in reference to First Samurai. Since the advent of the BC, their have only been a couple standouts in the Juvy after winning the Champagne... Think I may still have the notes I made as a matter of fact.. I'll look for them as they were surprising.

Yeah, if you disect Champagne winners that ran in the BC I think you will find they didn't necessarily underperform...at least dramatically. It feels a little like the ridiculous Juvie/Derby jinx.

I have no idea right now what the Juvenile field will look like when assembled, and the posts are drawn, and right now I tend to favor Tale of Ekati, but considering the overall ineptitude we have seen, I can't dismiss any horse because it won a big race. Who are all the hidden horses out there this year?

Since 1990... Champagne Winner in BC Juvy

13/2-0-2 (And since Timber Country.. 9/0-0-2)

06 Scat Daddy - 4th @ 7-2
05 First Samurai - 3rd @ 3-2 (At Belmont)
04 Proud Accolade - 6th @ 5-2
03 Birdstone - DNS
02 Toccet - 9th @ 8-1
01 Officer - 5th @ 3-4 (At Belmont)
00 AP Valentine - 14th @ 5-2
99 Greenwood Lake - DNS
98 The Groom is Red - 6th @ 3-1
97 Grand Slam - 8th @ 2-1 (eased with cut)
96 Ordway - 3rd @ 3-2
95 Maria's Mon - DNS
94 Timber Country - WON @ 5-2 (At Churchill)
93 Dehere - 8th @ 3-4
92 Sea Hero - 7th @ 5-2
91 Tri to Watch - 8th @ 5-1
90 Fly So Free - WON @ 3-2 (At Belmont)

Point Given was a very hard luck second to AP Valentine and then an even harder luck loser of a photo to Macho Uno. Henny Hughes arguably ran better than First Samurai two years ago and came back to do the same in the BC.

Honestly, looking at that list only Dehere's failure surprised me.

My point is that solid handicapping will make the right decisions and going into your handicapping with a preconceived bias will harm you in the long run.

Updated
 

Updated through Sunday...

JEROME: McLaughlin-Luzzi (Daaher)
SPINSTER (Gr. I): Pletcher-Gomez (Panty Raid)
LADY'S SECRET (Gr. I): Baffert-Espinoza (Tough Tiz's Sis)
OAK TREE MILE (Gr. I): Frankel-M. Baze (Out of Control)
ANCIENT TITLE (Gr. I): Sise-Flores (Idiot Proof)

20 stakes...

18 different trainers (Only Frankel & Baffert with pairs of winners..)

17 different jocks (Only C. Velasquez, Albarado & Gomez get 2 each..)

This is the point that you (and others) make all of the time that just makes absolutely no sense to me. Really good horses string together good races in a row quite often. By this logic it seems like a horse such as War Pass would be a more likely winner of the Juvy if he had run considerably slower in the Champagne and finished third.
That is completely illogical.

Agree 100% on Point Given's Champage as I recall the rail opening miraculously for Chavez on AP Valentine.. The loss to Macho Uno was agonizing as PG wins with the wire 3 inches further away.. And point well taken on the capping notion..

Andy.. Who was Tri to Watch? Have not one iota of a recollection of that '91 Champagne winner.. None. A Fred Hooper runner trained by Carl Domino.. but what else did he ever do?

which is reinforced by the payouts of the BC Juvie....the betting fav has won 8 times and we have only had double digit payouts 4 times (three in the past few years)....so while the Champagne winner might not have been winning, logical horses were.

I don't think he ever did anything else. He ran second or third in the Futurity that year I think, won the Champagne, and that was it.

I have very little memory of Tri to Watch, and was surely at that Champagne, so he must have been pretty nondescript.

I hope you are right about Tale of Ekati. I'm a big Sunday Silence fan, and I don't get much of a chance to root for his progeny over here. It is nice to have a promising 2yo with some Sunday in him to follow. He has certainly looked pretty nice thus far.

Interestingly, since 1999, Champagne non-winners have fared very well.. Chief Seattle, Point Given, Afleet Alex and Henny Hughes (all runners up in the Champagne), all finished 2nd in the Juvy, and Chapel Royal (2nd, 2003) was 3rd in the BCJ. High Yield and Sun King both were 3rd in the Champagne and BCJ...

How has #2 done at Keeneland so far?