SA: 'Ribbon'; 'Leaf'; 'G-Wood'..
 

3rd (1:30) Yellow Ribbon S. (G1)

1 1/4 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 Mauralakana (FR) Espinoza V 123 L
2 Nashoba's Key Talamo J 123 L
3 Memorette Smith M E 123 L
4 Imagine Nakatani C S 123 L
5 Black Mamba (NZ) Baze T C 123 L
6 Citronnade Flores D R 123 L



7th (3:30) Oak Leaf S. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Set Play Blanc B 122 L
2 Wild Baby Girl Pedroza M A 122 L
3 Sunday Geisha Nakatani C S 122 L
4 The Golden Noodle Potts C L 122 L
5 Cry and Catch Me Smith M E 122 L
6 Runforthemoneybaby Baze T C 122 L
7 Gentle Audrey Talamo J 122 L
8 Golden Doc A Garcia M 122 L
9 Izarra Espinoza V 122 L
10 Tasha's Miracle Flores D R 122 L
11 P. S. U. Grad Baze M C 122 L



9th (4:30) Goodwood H. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Arson Squad Espinoza V 124 L
2 Hello Sunday (FR) Blanc B 124 L
3 Lewis Michael Baird E T 124 L
4 Tiago Smith M E 124 L
5 Porfido (CHI) Rosario J 124 Blk-On L
6 Big Booster Baze M C 124 L
7 Lava Man Nakatani C S 124 L
8 Awesome Gem Flores D R 124 L
9 A. P. Xcellent Valdivia J Jr 124 L
10 Wanna Runner Baze T C 124 L

Nashoba's Key FTW

Nk and citronnade
the two harlan's holiday fillies on the outside in the oakleaf
lewis michael in the dogwood.

Does it seem odd to anyone else that Lewis Michael is traveling to CA for $500k, and Student Council is traveling to Chi-town for $500k? Though I guess Catalano wanted to stay on the tires, but why wouldn't Cerin???

I just looked a bit closer and you're right. I hadn't read anything about a transfer since the Pacific Classic. Might be a one race deal b/c of licensing, maybe???

A race like the Goodwood is a very tough one to handicap I think. So many of these horses are moving from the ridiculously slow Del Mar poly to the relatively unknown Santa Anita Cushion. One would presume that the new surface would play like the Hollywood Cushion, and that the form these West Coasters showed there would be the best thing to look at. But then I read where several people (including Victor Espinoza) have said that the Cushion at Santa Anita is significantly different than the surface at Hollywood.
Then you have a horse like Lewis Michael who - like most of these - is going from poly to cushion, but he is coming from the Arlington poly which is a lot different than the Del Mar poly. I know his trainer thinks Lewis Michael is the "best polytrack horse in the world" but how will that form transfer to the cushion? Also, Lewis Michael's big "G2" win in his last start came against absolutely nobody.
Like I said, it seems like a tough one to me.

Student Council already lucked up and got his grade one win. If the SA track plays more like Hollywood than Del Mar, he'd go back to being a non-factor. Instead, he can go to Chicago and face a bunch of hens and roosters for the same price and be favored. Meanwhile, Lewis Michael doesn't have his grade one yet and I'm sure his connections saw Student Council whip the field in the Pacific Classic so they are taking a chance that the track could cancel some of the main contenders out like Del Mar did. If he takes to the track, he may never get an easier chance for a grade one on the "dirt" than he would here.

Man..I look for Lava Man to run huge in the Goodwin and if he wins this or runs good..I would say they send him to the BC Classic...where I think he has a legitimate chance to win...the Monmouth track should suit him just fine..you might get 10/15-1 on him..the East Coast bias should help his odds...he could be worth a ducat

If the track plays like it did today then A.P. Xcellent has a great chance to go gate to wire.

In last year's BC Classic, Lava Man's odds were about equal to Invasor. So what was this about a bias...

I think you have to look at Monmouth Park..it is different that the other "shipped to" surfaces he has raced on...MP is probably more like the California Tracks than any other track he has shipped to..and at some value..I think he has a shot..but he does have to put in a good effort in the Goodwin or I will be off the bandwagon rather quickly.

What if he bombs in the Goodwin but wins the Goodwood?

Thanks..but it is still a long way till the BC and I might end up on Curlin or Hard Spun or AGS...but tonight after a few beers, a glass of wine and a Cigar..Lava Man looked good....but so did the 40 year old waitress...:D

LOL..then I'll say it was a Goodwin in the Goodwood...dam spell checker!

His trainer has said that the Classic is out no matter what and if Lava Man does go to NJ, it would be for one of the mile races.

He won't have a chance in those races either. Anybody that bets on this horse outside of California just hasn't been paying attention. When he ships, it doesn't matter what kind of surface he runs on. He just loses badly.

You're right. He should fit right in against California's Grade I horses.




He's going to walk.

yeah, with Student Council off the premises they're vulnerable to another mediocre midwesterner swooping in and taking the big prize.:D

dem's fightin words.

you better check yourself.

Tiago is proven on the east. I believe a 3rd vs. Rags and Curlin should beat this mediocore west coast group.....

Tiago fires a 100 beyer consistently enough and that should be good enough to win this.

i know, just stirring up the pot knowing full well to expect people to come out guns ablazin.

Oh yea, I don't care about trashing the quality of fields in SoCal, that's obvious.

Just don't call Michael mediocre. I'm going to get all emotional about it.

I hope Tony Soprano's horse loses.

i was just downplaying the expectations. people were mortified when Student Council won at Delmar because he was a "midwestern allowance" type horse.

Isn't that really just code for "SoCal Graded Stakes Contender" anyway?

And Lewis Michael has at least been competitive in graded stakes dating back to last Spring.

I know you're just being contrarian, and while Tiago and Lava Man obviously pose challenges, I'm pretty positive about where I'm hanging my hat.

P.S.U. Grad was supplemented to Sunday's Norfolk Stakes and is expected to run there against males. Trainer Craig Dollase was not pleased that P.S.U. Grad drew the outside post in the Oak Leaf.

Plus gets a break in pounds

Lava Man has no shot at winning, or running well in any race that he has to fly to. They have played that song too many times already.

Tiago has the right style to win this race since Lava Man will scratch in favor of the turf race.

Citronnade and David Flores will go wire to wire. Smokin Joe Talamo will get burnt in this race.

I'll be cheering for Lewis Michael in this one.
I have long considered myself a mediocre midwesterner.....and we have to stick together.

I am just glad that A.P. Arrow and A.P. Xcellent ended up in different races this time. When they are in the same race, it confuses me for a few seconds....until I remember to just toss both of them.

Good. Keep ignoring Hello Sunday everyone.
Black Mamba / Imagine
Runforthemoneybaby in the Oak Leaf although i change my mind about every 5 minutes or so.:D

In terms of a win bet, I wouldn't take anything lower than 5/1 on any of the horses in the race. There are just too many questions to play chalk here I think.
To me Lava Man - if he goes - remains the most likely winner, but I wouldn't bet on him.

PROGRAM CHANGES Updated: Sep 29th 10:06 am
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Race 1 - #8 Kissed by Class 1st time no Lasix
Races 2 - 3 - No Changes
Race 4 - #5 +1 Overweight
Race 5 - Scratch#2 Seven Secrets, #14 Satellite
Race 6 - Scratch #2 Finding Angelo; #8 Limestone Edge is a Ridgling
Race 7 - No Changes
Race 8 - Scratch #10 Ebony Light
Race 9 - Scratch #5 Porfido, #7 Lava Man
Race 10 - Scratch #8 Rabbi, #14 Palamoun; #13 +3 Overweight

Can someone please explain to me how Mauralakana is 10/1 in the Yellow Ribbon?

She looks like she should be 3/1 to me. That's a crazy price with three minutes to post.

And she ran like she should have been 20/1

Result, please.