Va Derby
 

Showing up is not showing up.Just read it on drf.com. Can anyone handle Kip Deville in this spot?

Also Oracle, Spoke to the Ieah crew and they tell me Wonder Lady is going in the CCoaks and they are expecting a field of 4. Hard not to get g1 placed there

WLAL will love the CCA Oaks distance....very live filly in that spot....as for Showing Up...that is actually surprising to me because it is $1 million that he would be 4-5 in....How is that not attractive?...That is as rare a scenario that you'll get as an owner/trainer....odds-on fave for $1 million on a course where your horse just dominated a solid field of turf 3yos....Wow, I can't believe they'd pass unless something was ailing the horse.....Maybe they are trying to keep him fresh for a race like the Gr. I Secretariat at ARL next month.....That would be the only logical reason I would see them forgoing the Virginia Derby proposition.....They might be out-smarting themselves here.....

tagg says he doesn't like the spacing and showing up will run next in the secretariat. Will Kip Deville be odds on in this spot?

I remember just a few years ago, two weeks was short rest and three weeks was optimal time off. Now three weeks is too short. *SIGH*. Sooner or later we're gonna see horses twice a year.

Absolutely not...as a matter of fact I believe he will be a huge play-against because the riders will be more concious of him and move to tackle him early down the backstretch instead of letting him run free until trying to reel him in the stretch.....

They very well may do that, but it's a risk. The more they send on the backstretch to keep KD honest, the more they may end up just taking the starch out of their own finish. Who is really going to want to tackle him early and still have plans to hit the board. It's a tough call.

English Channel sure didnt have a problem with it last year:D :D

Yeah, but on the other hand if you know he can go 1:08 and change for 3/4 and still finish then they are all running for second anyway, right? I think his last race was an aboration and I really don't see him turning in that type of freakish effort again..i really don't....And I really believe that there are a few jockeys that will attck him early if they have a horse with any tactical speed that they are riding.....they have to and will IMO....

Okay then, you may be right that he won't repeat the last, freakish performance. But if you're racing against him next time and you believe that, then you should be comfortable letting him go knowing that he will be coming back to the group. I don't have the answer but I sure do look forward to seeing him race again.

I just think that at least one of those jocks will go after him early on....gotta believe at least one tries to hook him down the backstretch...

I dunno Joel, I'm dying for her to win a grade one so I can say I purchased a grade one winner but Shug's filly looks like a real nice one who is just starting to develop and I think she may be ready to run a big one.

Will Dutrow bring Quincy back to ride , or will he uses one of his top riders now that they see that the horse can perform? Im sure the jock agents wernt knocking down his doors in the last becase they all probably had doubs abut this colts ability, IMO Quincy is a jock that is close for a breakthrough with the big boys.

Where did you read it on drf.com? Please provide the link. They are still undecided last I heard. He was considering working him on this Sunday but they had not made up their mind on the race. As for the Secretariat, I am not sure that is correct either. They still have not ruled out the Travers last I heard.

Ha Ha. They want no part of Kip Deville with a real jockey, so much for that.

I wouldn't go believing anything mp3 writes here as fact without a link to the story. I just sent an e-mail to find out the real story. The plan was still to run him last I heard. He didn't work this weekend because he didn't need the work. It is completely possible they are passing but Tagg is not one to make up his mind almost 2 weeks before the race. Remember Tagg ran him back in 2 weeks for the derby so 3 weeks is not a big deal. This is a 10F race at Colonial though so maybe he thinks it is just too much. This horse has a 4yr old season ahead of him so I guess they might want to be careful with him.

Kip Deville will not hit the board. You are delusional if you think KD is in the same league as Showing Up. WHERE IS THIS ARTICLE ON THE DRF? I hope for this guys sake he isn't just starting rumors. As of Tuesday morning I know for a fact they had not made a decision, although I also know the Travers was still on the table. I am not calling the guy a liar but if he is going to talk about the story he should provide a link. I sent an e-mail so I will know the real story later today.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/76158.html



It is towards the bottom of the article.

Sounds like he isn't running in the Virginia Derby or the Travers. Tough to go back and forth between turf and dirt.

Either that or the though that another grueling race in which they chase a lightning fast Kip Deville with Prado onboard rather than Hamilton has them taking another path. Smart move on their part if its true. I'd want no part of chasing Kip again with Prado onboard instead of the kid who opened up 17 lengths. YOu still really arent laboring under the delusion that if the kid only opened him up say by, a completely moronic 10 lengths as opposed to an incredibly moronic 17 lengths, that he was really going to beat Kip are you? I guess a lack of understanding of pace and energy expended would be expected by a guy not following the game real long.
Trust me, they want no part of Kip in that spot.

Why is it that anything to do with Lael causes you to fly off the handle?

CHILL!

Make sure you aplogize to MP3 when you get that email back. The difference between 3rd hand info and 1st hand info could never be clearer than it is now.
For months you have explained to us with total certainty that the horse would run in the VA Derby and the Travers. It now appears that he will do neither. Its why I consider anything other than 1st hand info to be phonier than a three dollar bill.

Thanks. My friend said he saw this coming. Tagg is just too conservative in my opinion. The problem is the horse ran huge off a 7 week layoff from the derby and now he thinks the horse needs that much time between all races. Tagg is very lucky he has good owners because most owners wouldn't turn down an easy $600,000.

I think the owners are lucky to have a great trainer like Barclay Tagg.

The VA Derby and the Travers was definitely the original plan. Tagg is arguably the most impossible trainer to figure out in the world because he is very conservative. The horse just made him $60K, which is good money for him, so if Tagg wants more space between races who am I to question the guy. No knock on you Oracle, but anyone who thinks KD is in the league with Showing Up probably should stay out of the horse buying business. Not only is SU a much better horse, but he cost hundreds of thousands less than KD cost. Tagg got Showing Up for 60K.

Oh I see. Would you like me to pull up some of his other buys as yearlings the last few years and see what they add up to? How about that expensive Thunder Gulch who broke her maiden for 50 and then got killed in the allowance race? How about Nice Nellie? Please spare me. Buying yearlings is buying a dream. What IEAh does is try and find proven candidates and then pay a premium due to the fact that you won't buy so many 6 figure disasters searching for a good one.

They think so too considering they could have anyone they want. The knock on Tagg with this horse is that he ran him on two weeks for the derby against a horse that nobody really thought he had a chance against, in Barbaro, but now with a $5M bonus (which I doubt he would get) he doesn't want to run him off 3 weeks rest. The fact is the owners are incredible people because 95% of owners would tell the trainer to take a shot at the $5M.

I do know this, Tagg got him for $60K and considering he will earn millions in his career, Tagg knows a hell of a lot more than me, so I am sure the rest is good for the horse.

I agree. And I would wager that he knows a lot more about what the horse needs now that Bold or his friend. I think if I had to ask one of the three for some input I would "lean" towards Tagg.

Since you are such a stickler on facts and apologies I would think that you owe MP3 a pretty good one. He also made you look pretty silly beating you to posting the scoop when for months you have railed on about your "friend" and all the great info you have. By the way the Startegic Mission of Taggs you touted so highly, Stratonic was well beaten in a cheap maiden claimer this past weekend, in case you missed that.

Look Mr. Know It All, get your facts right. Showing Up was bought by Tagg as a 2yr old at a Maryland sale, not a yearling. Nice Nelly is a filly and they run a breeding operation so you can figure out why they bought one of the last Seattle Slew fillies. Nice Nelly thankfully is doing well too. I think IEAH is excellent too, but KD is not Showing Up. Showing Up has earned close to $1M in 5 starts, won a grade II on dirt, and finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby. All that and he destroyed KD. KD will not get the distance this weekend and off his last race he will bounce.

Sorry about beating me to the scoop, believe it or not I have a real job. I don't obsess over a chat site like some people. He read a drf article that said he unlikely to go. Maybe I should read the drf every free minute of my time and run to post on "your" website. You see I have a job so that I will be able to buy my own horses one day.

As for Stratonic I saw the replay but didn't get back from the Mets game in time to watch it live. He looked really good, almost hung on for second. Tagg owns that horse so I was hoping he would get him a winner but he is in a maiden claimer for a reason.

Bold you are embarassing your fellow Nyers here. Any Nyer knows that if you are going to bust balls as vigorously as you do that when you trip up you have to expect to have yours busted as well and take it like a man. Now please, accept the busting and lighten up. We aren't curing cancer on this board you know.

I do too. Tagg knows what he is doing. Showing Up will win next time out. Of course, I think the Jacksons are very good horsemen also which is why they picked talented trainers with smaller strings of horses in Matz and Tagg.

Ok, here is the story.

Showing Up is still possible for next weekend, but not likely. SU is done racing on the dirt though, which I did not know. He is likely going to Arlington for his next race, I guess that would be the Secretariat, and then he likely will make a start in the Turf Invitational, not sure where that is, and target the BC Turf or BC Mile.


Only 3 more races this year I guess, but they plan on bringing him back next year. There is likely a race in Europe in his future next year. Interesting.

Turf Invitational is at belmont Ruler. And I think the grass decision is quite wise. Horses stay sounder on the grass and race longer. Sounds like a very good plan to me. Go for the grade one agaisnt his own generation at Arlington, then use the toughest prep for the BC(Turf Inv).

You would know better than me if it is a good plan. I am just telling you what I was told in an e-mail. Tagg knows best for the horse, I just had planned on going to the July 15 race so I am a little unhappy. My plans to go to colonial for the handicapping contest and now the race have blown up on me in a matter of days. Not good.

Not gonna be there on Sat for the contest??

No contest. Wedding, thankfully not mine. I was out of this wedding months ago until my brother screwed me. I am not even good friends with the guy but my brother works with him.

These people who get married on big race days have a hell of a lot of ******* nerve.

WHERE IS THE MFING LINK FOR THIS INFO!!!!!! SHOW IT TO ME!!!! NOW!!!;)

I barely know the guy but considering I would never win the contest I really don't care. The July 15 race bothers me though. All of these horses and their need for almost 2 months between races is pretty disturbing to me. Barbaro did the same thing though so they obviously know what they are doing. Showing Up is a nice horse but talent wise he isn't even close to Barbaro. I really wish Barbaro had a chance to run in the VA Derby because he was awesome on the turf.

First, on not running on the dirt again, that is hardly surprising as I would guess Tagg is one of those trainers that doesn't like to do a lot of surface switching. He certainly knows a lot better than I.

Now, as far as the comment that Showing Up " will " win millions in his career...well that may be jumping the gun. First of all, there isn't THAT much money in turf racing and to win " millions " ( yes I know he has already won around $800K ) he would have to win a few big races. But also, I'm not exactly sure how his win a couple weeks ago stamped him as a superstar. Don't get me wrong, he ran well, better than I thought he would, but he did get a perfect trip behind a blistering pace where he saved all the ground. It also was hardly a spectacular field. He has a lot of improving do, which he certainly can do considering his young age and inexperience, to catch up to even the decent American older horses out there. But, what happens if a few decent Euros show up for next month's Secretariat? My guess is they would offer a very reasonable challenge to Showing Up. What happens if a big field assembles and he doesn't draw an inside post? One thing he does have going for him is tactical speed, along with obvious talent, so he will at least be in a position to make his own trips.

I have to say, I wouldn't be so presumptuous as to argue with decisions from a guy as good as Barcley Tagg, but I can't say this seems like the best time to be conservative. There is the potential for a major payday and as was said earlier....he ran back in the Derby on TWO weeks rest.