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-   -   Hard Spun - Haskell (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15674)

cowgirlintexas 08-02-2007 10:22 PM
Hard Spun - Haskell
 
Interesting to read that regular jock Mike Pino will be back aboard after owners decided that Gomez did'nt make much difference.. Seems to me I remember lots of talk about his "bad" ride in the Derby or was it the Preakness?? Forget wich, but just wonder waht ya'll think and if you think Hard Spun can win the Haskell.. Hard fast track might just be to his liking...

Thoughts everyone??

Travis Stone 08-02-2007 10:36 PM
I think this horse just needs to go-go-go, especially in this spot. He seems like more of an outrun all the way than a finesse rate/pounce horse.

trifecta124 08-02-2007 10:39 PM
I think he has a good chance to wire the field. The track will probably be super fast. I do believe that Stormello also has a lot of speed.

The bad ride was in the Preakness.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2007 10:40 PM
Hard Spun can't seem to get a break....

With Stormello in the race...I don't think he'll have a chance--unless Stormello is inexplicably rated.

I was hoping Stormello would have tried the King's Bishop....a race he'd have had a big shot in.

He has no shot of hitting the board in the Haskell.

NoLuvForPletch 08-02-2007 10:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I think Hard Spun will be lucky to hit the board here. There is a lot of speed and sprinter speed at that. Stormello is very fast and Cable Boy has some speed.
I'm hoping to finally cash with this guy. In the Preakness he was in the perfect spot, rating nicely behind the two speeds, before Pino unexplainably said go into the blistering pace. If Stormello and Cable Boy hook up and go too fast, Pino wont make the same mistake and he'll let those 2 come back to him. It is only a 1 1/8 race, and he's drawn outside the two so called speeds. If he gets the lead, and the other speeds can't keep up (Stomello couldn't keep up in the Derby, I know he was in the 17 post) he's gone, IMO.

sumitas 08-02-2007 11:06 PM
The 2 speed horses might set up Hard Spun perfectly here. Curlin should still get the job done just nipping HS.

Travis Stone 08-02-2007 11:07 PM
Stormello could not keep up in the Derby, and I don't see how he's going to make-up for all that time now. I truly think Hard Spun is just plain faster than he early.

sumitas 08-02-2007 11:11 PM
One possibility is Curlin over the 2 longest shots on the board in a small ex.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2007 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Stormello seemed like he was rated a bit in the Derby, like was said earlier he also broke from post 17.
I think strangled more so than rated.

MaTH716 08-03-2007 06:13 AM
The track has been playing to the front runners. In the Preakness it seemed that HS was rating nicley until Pino made his backside brush (ala Cat Manzi) and tried to bottom out the field. If he could rate again and Pino doesn't do anything crazy I think he has a very good shot.

Danzig 08-03-2007 06:23 AM
as was mentioned above, this track has been kind to front runners. a derby-style performance, and hard spun will be uncatchable.

nice field, looking forward to it. glad to see that everyone isn't playing the avoid game this year, a nice change of pace.

slotdirt 08-03-2007 08:03 AM
I always liked that Mike Pino.

Danzig 08-03-2007 08:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
I always liked that Mike Pino.
oh me too! of course he complains when people confuse him with mario...

slotdirt 08-03-2007 09:02 AM
Think he needed a rest post-Preakness. Hopefully the two months off will have recharged his batteries; Hard Spun's workouts have shown he could be sitting on a good race.

NoLuvForPletch 08-03-2007 09:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
The track has a reputation for playing kindly to front runners and while it's probably true, I'm not so sure it has lately. Speed helps at any track really, except for maybe Del mar and Keeneland, but I saw a few races on Wednesday and the track seemed to be fair, at least in the routes.

Now I would not be shocked at all to see a souped up track, it's becoming commonplace on these big days. But it's sort of tough to count on a speed favoring track. Hard Spun is a nice horse. If he has improved since the Belmont he rates a big shot. But it really looks like the pace scenario is against him.
The leader after the opening 1/4 mile in The Haskell has been 1st or 2nd the last 6 years.

2006 - 2nd
2005 - 2nd
2004 - 1st
2003 - 1st
2002 - 1st
2001 - 2nd

pgardn 08-03-2007 09:23 AM
I think the real question is how much better have these 3 year old become since the Belmont. The big players, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday have become significantly better imo. Curlin... I dont know, but he was already very good.

I have not forgotten those fractions in the Belmont. That was horrible for Hard Spun. over 50 seconds for 4f... 1:15 4/5 for 6f.

Sightseek 08-03-2007 09:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Am I the only one that thinks there is other speed in here and Curlin and Any Given Saturday are better horses?
I'm with you on that.

NoLuvForPletch 08-03-2007 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Sure, but it's important to realize that those 6 were all very logical, and stalkers and or front runners. I guess point Given in 2001 was more of a mid pack/closer, but with no speed he was up close. In 2002 obviously War Emblem was a front runner as we saw in the Derby and Preakness. Peace Rules in 2003, Lion Heart in 2004, Roman Ruler in 2005 and Bluegrass Cat last year.

Am I the only one that thinks there is other speed in here and Curlin and Any Given Saturday are better horses?
Whether they are better or not isn't the question. I think at Monmouth Hard Spun has a distinct advantage. Curlin very well could be better, not so sure about Any Given Saturday.

Sightseek 08-03-2007 09:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch
Whether they are better or not isn't the question. I think at Monmouth Hard Spun has a distinct advantage. Curlin very well could be better, not so sure about Any Given Saturday.
Yeah but Curlin also can be taken back or pressed to the lead.

NoLuvForPletch 08-03-2007 10:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
Yeah but Curlin also can be taken back or pressed to the lead.
IMO there is no way Curlin runs with Hard Spun. That would be suicide for him.

zippyneedsawin 08-03-2007 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
What makes you think Hard Spun has become significantly better?
Exactly, he hasn't raced since the Belmont. I believe people are overthinking this. It's really between AGS and Curlin, especially with the likely pace scenario.

pgardn 08-03-2007 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
What makes you think Hard Spun has become significantly better?
I notice you did not ask why I think AGS has become better. His win over Nobiz was good, but there are other things that have happened to AGS imo.
Larry Jones on Hard Spun. Who may not be the most reliable of sources as he is very optimistic. In fact, if Curliln and AGS take enough money, I might just bet him.

gamblin4ever 08-03-2007 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I think Hard Spun will be lucky to hit the board here. There is a lot of speed and sprinter speed at that. Stormello is very fast and Cable Boy has some speed.
Cable Boy has 2 fastest 1m70yd times @ Monmouth I believe.

slotdirt 08-03-2007 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
oh me too! of course he complains when people confuse him with mario...
Does Mike make early moves on the Pimlico backstretch? If not, then I'm all for him getting the ride on Hard Spun?

Danzig 08-03-2007 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Sure, but it's important to realize that those 6 were all very logical, and stalkers and or front runners. I guess point Given in 2001 was more of a mid pack/closer, but with no speed he was up close. In 2002 obviously War Emblem was a front runner as we saw in the Derby and Preakness. Peace Rules in 2003, Lion Heart in 2004, Roman Ruler in 2005 and Bluegrass Cat last year.

Am I the only one that thinks there is other speed in here and Curlin and Any Given Saturday are better horses?
no, there's other speed in there--but remember where the other speed that tried to go with hard spun finished in the derby? they couldn't keep up with him, and he damned near won it...of course, curlin suffered from a poor trip, and came on for third--he's the one to beat here, but i think hard spun can do it.

of course a spun/curlin ex won't pay jack. but i think it's those two at the wire.

Danzig 08-03-2007 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
Does Mike make early moves on the Pimlico backstretch? If not, then I'm all for him getting the ride on Hard Spun?
not so sure...hard to find stats on him too! he's a mystery guy.

herkhorse 08-03-2007 07:43 PM
HS-AGS/HS-AGS/All/Curlin Superfecta;)

pgardn 08-03-2007 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I didn't ask why you thought AGS was better because there is evidence he's better. His Dwyer was a huge step forward.

Trainerspeak is probably the worse thing you can listen to. What's Jones going to say, that he's expecting to run bad?
No its what he is not saying as well... Asmussen on Curlin: The ultimate goal is the BCC of course.
How about asking Asmussen if wanted a slower track another 1/16 or an 1/8 was added. You think he would take that? I do.

Hard Spun has muscled up and ready for this race. We will see if the other speed hurts him. And if Hard Spun goes off at 5/2 Im not biting. Im counting on AGS to be the second favorite.

whodey17 08-03-2007 08:31 PM
I pesonally would love to see this horse on turf. He has a decent turf line on the sire side with My Babu and Djebel

Danzig 08-04-2007 09:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
That's the thing though, no one really did go with him in the Derby, he had it pretty much his own way. Stormello, who IMO is faster than Hard Spun took back.

All I know is, if Hard Spun wins I'll have plenty of crow to eat and I'll be losing money.

oh yeah!! the 'new' stormello...they suddenly were going to teach him to rate....that worked well.

sumitas 08-04-2007 10:28 AM
Stormello could very well be the fastest 3 year old miler running today. He should be in the top 3 at the wire.

Samarta 08-04-2007 03:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Stormello seemed like he was rated a bit in the Derby, like was said earlier he also broke from post 17. We saw the real Stormello in the Woody Stephens. He's fast. Maybe he doesn't go, although it would make no sense not to, as it appears that is the only way he wins. Maybe Cable boy doesn't go either but I think the Hard Spuns Derby run will be in their minds. I don't think he'll find himself alone on the lead. Any Given Saturday is my pick. He should get the right kind of trip and I'm hoping Curlin isn't 100%.

I think pino is in a weird spot here. He was criticized publicly and taken off the horse for moving too early. Gomez does the opposite and he's off. What does Pino do?
He makes em run him down.....it's that simple imo.....


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