7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping
 

I just read someone make reference to this so here it is.

Since we all, at least most all, want Sumonw to win, let's see who can handicap the race and lay out how it will unfold and be most accurate. I posted the form on another thread.

Let's see how many happy endings we can come up with.

No, not massage parlor type, 8th race at Arlington type.

Spyder

I know exactly how it will unfold:

They break well, Sumwon goes out and has an easy lead 2-3 wide as nobody else really wants the front and they think she'll burn herself out, Willie sits chilly and is doing easy 24-48, Classic Tiara is outside a length and a half back, Queen of the Ridge is on the rail a length back, testing occasionally to keep Sumwon honest but not really increasing the pace (Mojica's having a little trouble holding her), they hold that through the turn while they up the pace a little mid-turn and the back of the pack starts to close in on them. They hit the head of the stretch and as they come home all hell breaks loose.

Cannon and Kasept are standing like statues gripping the rail (Kasept's knuckles are white), Unstables' down on the rail snapping a photo every second of the stretch run but he's shaking so much from excitement they are blurry, ArlJim and Dell are starting to pump their fists in the air yelling "C'mon, girl, dig in!", BrianSpencer is beside himself yelling, "Go, go, go, GO!", Wing is jumping up and down screaming, "C'mon, c'mon, c'mon!", OneBadBeast is yelling, "Fight 'em off, girl, fight 'em off!", Riot and Sightseek are screaming unintelligibly at the top of their lungs and jumping up and down in unison, ddtheTide and Mrs Tide are screaming, "Look at her go, look at her go!" and hugging each other, and Scav is slapping his thigh so hard with his rolled-up program riding her home that beer flys everywhere, he loses his balance, and is saved from toppling over the balcony only by the combined efforts of Spyder, Sniper, GBBob, Satan's Twin and JDM.

and once again, i'll be yelling at the t.v. while my dog runs for the bathroom--cause she just knows i'm yelling at her!

First half I see differently

Second half - yeah pretty much

Hell..I'm not even in this group, but I'll be there cheering her on

We'll have to cheer YOU and PolyHorse Partners on Thursday! :D

Unfortunately we didn't draw in Thursday..So, I'll have to live vicariously ( sp?? )through Sumwon.

Bummer, sorry to hear that. See you later today.

Good stuff! :D

My analysis
 

2 - Powder River = Pretty big rise in class without the benefit of a win, goes from Fires to Mojica Jr (who has brought in some bombs this meet). Good last work, outside contender for 3rd or 4th

3 - Miss Peachtree = This is the horse I am worried about. Gets a real positive jock switch for the type of horse she is. Baird is a speed guy, rides with confidence on the lead but when he has to close, not so good. Hung last time because of tiredness, 2nd off a long layoff and will be heard from in the lane, especially shortening up by 1/2 a furlong. Playable in all four spots

1:1a - Queen of the Ridge/Classic Tiara = Gonna combine these two because my guess is one of them scratches, especially with Jesus named to both. I would rather seen Queen run because she is guaranteed to be on the lead and lead Sum chill off her flank in perfect position (Queen ran at 5f last out). If Queen does run, will take some action with last bullet work and Merrill takes action here when he ships in. Don't see either of them hitting the board

4 - Lady Eloquence = Jesse Lantz scares me now, the guy just brings in these monster horses that have no business winning (Along with Penalba and Mojica Jr). Pass

5 - Pure Classy = Interesting horse, I think what you think of this horse is exactly what you think of Gazzella, interesting note that Hanna from Savanah didn't run a lick yesterday in an Illinois bred Stakes race, might be a key race

6 - Green Door = Bred out the ass and has a potent jock/trainer combo. Don't worry about the switch to Razo as Douglas has first call on all Pletcher horses.Lightly raced and has a chance to improve

7 - Bid on a Dancer = Pass

8 - Gazzella = Have to respect and this horse could force Sumwon to be 3w the whole way which is obviously a cause for concern. Looks more of a stayer thus two turns in her future

9 - Sumwonlovesyou = Will be able to do what she wants out here. Ideally, she is sitting 3rd a length back of Gazella/Schrerer speed duel and Martinez can push the button when needed. Love seeing the last two works from here. IMO, it is picture time

My plays for this day

R6 P4: 7,8,11/7/9/12 for $5 = $15 total
R7 P3: 7/9/12 for $125 = $125 total
R8 Tri: 3,9/3,9/5,6 for $10 = $40
R8 Tri: 3,9/3,9/2,4 for $5 = $20

Nice account Scavs..that's what I was looking for. Still capping and will post thoughts but like your analysis. Early view is lack of early speed leaves Sumwon and 1-2 horses out front letting Sumwon take over around the turn and open.

Like a 1 mile race today at Arlington that was exactly what I would expect Wednesday and good to see honest front speed holding up.

Spyder

Gazzella looks like the one to beat. Had the dreaded inside post last out.

Good luck guys.

If she runs like she ran at Churchill, she will beat this field by 2-3 lengths. That being said, rather be sitting 3rd 2w(sitting right behind the speed duel) and get first run on tiring leaders. Either of Scherer's horses will be out there, and Douglas will have Gazzella out there also. No way you want to be 3w the whole way around, if she had to I doubt it will be a problem but it will be closer at the end. She'll rate for Willie.

Any way you look at it, Sumwon will probably be 5/2 or 2/1 at off odds, and she has a hell of a chance to win this race, which is a direct complement to Chuck's training job, and the outpouring of effection that she has felt since being bought. I can't wait to meet her

I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.

she's performed well on poly in the past. why do you think her style isn't conducive?

Just this isn't Arlington, and certainly not 20k claimers in the dead of winter. Like I said, this is clearly as a bettor, she won't offer any value and will be overbet even.

I said the same thing about Pussycat Doll Friday night at Hollywood. There is a lot of cash to be made with this new surface. It doesn't mean I don't think the horse can win.

I don't know how the Turfway Poly rates with Arlington poly.

These horses would have to improve to beat Sumwon

Sumwon is the class and the speed of this field. Although she won't have the lead unless she realy really wants it. :D I'll be surprised if they go slower than .47 for the qtr. For some reason Bris rates Sumwon 4th choice :confused: Behind the Pletcher horse and the entry.

The entry does pose a problem. Looks like you either have to be on the lead or from way out of it. <- Jesse Lantz is my favorite longshot rider at AP.

With this group her odds wil be too short for anything but a win bet.

CJ,

You're 100% right. The quirky surface is a wildcard and if she tries to go, it's a dicey proposition in the lane. Think Chuck and Willie will be talking about sitting off, finding position on the backstretch and coming with a run off the turn. One of the benefits of having Martinez here is that in the successive Churchill starts she increasingly rated for him.

I assume that the opinion above is based on your figs ( http://www.pacefigures.com )... On speed, the Thoro-Graph numbers have it as a very well-matched group (see attachment). Interesting that a $30k ALW at AP could be this much more challenging than the $50k ALW at CD. I'm as concerned about her needing the race after the 45 days and missed time as the competition, based on her pattern(s) in the three race skien April-May.

No matter what, it's going to be exciting and it certainly continues to be a better scenario than running in mid-low claiming events!

(And CJ, you should really take time at some point to expound on your figs for everyone.. And we still have to get you on the radio for the segment we talked about! For everyone reading this and CJ's analysis in general, his PaceFigures are widely regarded by many in the game, as the best, if most under-publicized, available.)

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

Despite the Cubs brainwashing, Scav is right. You can't compare this poly to others because it really hasn't been biased at all, other than the speed when wet. And it should be dry and sunny Wed for you guys. Only trouble spot, as discussed previously, is getting off the rail, which won't be an issue. You can win on the rail, it's just hard to move off of it

I guess that all depends on your definition of fair. It certainly doesn't play like dirt.

Agree, but dirt played to speed/rail holding, these races are finally 'fair' meaning good, well trained horses are winning.

I am also curious to see how she runs without her feet getting a taste of it, pre-race. At Hollywood, you can't work at SA and run at Hollywood, distinct disadvantage. Baffert is bringing all his horses over for one work pre-race now

Here are my figures for the race. I posted in a version with running lines that most will be familiar with here.


Arlington Park, R8, July 11


For a brief explanation of the figures, see this link.

Thanks for the kind words Steve. At this time, I cap the number of users and don't have openings, so I try not to get into specifics much. I will certainly be rooting for you guys. The numbers themselves show what a great job Chuck has done already! Again, it is the surface that is the tough part of the equation.

All that, and I loath chalk! :D

Thanks for the PaceFigs - I like them.

What I want to know is: has Sumwon broken away from her hotwalkers this week?

Just a quick scan of your figures it looks to me like Ms Peachtree is a great bet in here.

The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today.

Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race.

That "argument" could be made about any horse breaking from the 9-hole in any race at any track, and I'm pretty sure there have been at least a few 9-hole winners throughout the history of horse racing.

thats a silly post, but given your statement I probably have made the exact argument in the past when

1. there is alot of speed signed up on a flat turn mile
2. an outside horse has several speed horses inside of them
3. is not faster then the other speed to clear and run them off their feet

You really furthered the handicapping discussion by blatantly making the 9-hole statement without offering any supporting handicapping logic why I am wrong.

She does have the second best figure in the race so its not impossible for her to win if some other riders take back and she breaks right on top thus elimating some of the speed, I just think at low odds its a very risky proposition.

Funny how things change...3 months ago everybody thought we were hopelessly overmatched and now everyone says we are a possibly overbet favorite. I'd rather be the latter.

By the way, going a mile out of a chute makes the outside post a lesser factor being that there is 1/2 mile to get position

agree with that but only if you are the clear front running speed or a multi dimensional horse who can press the pace from a few lengths back, not sure this horse can, at least she never has before.

So basically any horse that breaks from the 9-hole either has to be the speed of the speed or a dead closer to be a contender? Do I really have to provide "supporting handicapping logic" why that's wrong? She can stalk in the second flight and then move three-four wide on the turn and still win, just like any good, tactically sound horse can. And I love how you're convinced that she's going to be such low odds when she's 4-1 on the ML and Pletcher's horse is certain to take a lot of money.

well, 3 months ago you were :p

and you know you like to bet too

I would say fair odds are around 6/1, not sure what she will be.

Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so.

Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point.

Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only after looking at the pp's. In general a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that.

First of all, she is not going to be chalk imo. The Douglas/Pletcher horse I'm sure will be a solid favorite. my guess is Sumwon is 3 or 4 to 1 by post time.

Second, I can easily see her getting a nice trip from that post settling in third or fourth, perhaps 2-3 lengths off the lead. With the long run up the backside there will be plenty of time to get into a decent position for the turn, meaning not 3-4 wide. I definitely don't subscribe to the gun it or take back idea. With her natural speed in 2-3 furlongs she will have easily cleared all but a few horses, without gunning.

she can start to move on the leaders on the turn and I think with the late power she showed last race she has a decent shot at taking it. I also like where she is in the form cycle, (three improving starts, followed by a short break and a nice work time before last), meaning perhaps she moves forward again.

Objectively speaking, I do always prefer to see recent poly form before wagering on a horse. Some of the local horses have a few races on the surface and that can be an advantage.

I think you're nuts for putting the fair value at 6/1.

Who said anything about getting hooked 3-4 wide on a hot pace? I said she can travel with the second flight, then make a 3-4 wide move on the turn and win. Good horses do it all the time. And this isn't a turf race where you can hug the rail on the turn and then swing out for the stretch drive. She's going to have to make her move somewhere on the turn, so I don't know where you want her to "take back and save some ground."

that is a fair post, I disagree but I its your opinion of the race which sounds fair enough.

maybe I am missing it on her pp, where is that race, she looks like a pace horse?

I also dont have the chart, how have the horses who were on the pace with her last time faired next out? That would give us an idea how legit that last figure was?

You seem to be saying in your other posts that she has to take back or gun to the front which I agree would be suicidal. I don't know why you would say that really. Its four furlongs to the turn and I think there are perhaps two horses in here with more early speed. Translation: even running in her usual style she will be coming from off the leading group without any taking back effort. It will just happen naturally.

I agree with your logic when its a 5.5 or six furlong race. In that scenario from the outside you either need to get the lead or drop in somewhere rather quickly.

The only difference that I see is in this case like I said you have a very long run and it lessens the severity of the post imo.
anyway we'll see in a few days who was closer to the truth!

did you miss the last race?

I am just a huge believer in running styles, that the most talented horses have two dimensional styles and that the other depend on pace senarios to win, such as a front runner getting a clear lead or a closer getting a fall apart senarion with no other talented horses like him in the race.....I think the horse in question here has clearly demonstrated that she wants to be part of the pace, in fact I dont see a race where she has passed a horse in the stretch?