5/31: 'Official' BEL $262k P6 Thread
 

Belmont's turn on Thursday with $260K+ Pick6 Carryover. 5 of six legs on Turf will certainly make it interesting...

I still need to do some additional digging on firsters...

Happy to hear any thoughts on this sequence as we attempt to navigate.

Good Luck!

that pretty much takes me out, turf is great but 5 races is just more then my skill level on that surface.

Currently thinking the 1/1a entry is a single candidate in 7th.

Whateverwillbwillb broke maiden off the layoff last spring at BEL. Could be tough here picking up JV for 2007 return. Turf Beyers from last year seem a notch above rest. Like the works over BEL Turf course. Could sit stalking trip with plenty of pace in here.

Entry mate Classic Expression is no slouch either going 2nd off Layoff for Serpe. Has 2 wins at distance and gets Prado. Showed Improved effort 2nd off last layoff up at Saratoga.

Elmont, NY weather for tomorrow.

Mostly Sunny High
88°F

Precip
10%

Wind: W 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 46%
UV Index: 9 Very High

Warm (80's) and Sunny today. More of the same tomorrow. Looks like Fast and Firm.

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

You took the words right out of my mouth Phil....

P6 carryovers in NY are hard for me to resist when I've got the funds and impetus to play, but turf racing isn't my strength and this sequence has about 7 horses that could win each race!!

The Friday card is only slightly more manageable.

Michele the Great is sitting on a big race. Going to be hard to leave her off...

I don't see a single opportunity on this card.

brutal sequence
 

I concur Phil. I've looked at this Pick 6 sequence for two nights now and can't come up with a single in any leg. :confused:

Tend to agree.. Utterly muddled set of races.

4th: Taking the Tiger looks like the horse to me, but a single in the opener?
5th: A sinkhole after the 6/8, and crying out for a surprise winner..
6th: A turf sprint as the single? Maybe.. Just 'Justy'?

I'm not close to a structure in the 7th, 8th or 9th..

Andy Serling and Seth Merrow on the Show tonight (5:00 and 5:30) to go through the card...

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

preliminary p6 thoughts
 

4th: I think the Tiger will be tough (12-1 m/l way too generous); also think Parisella's classmaster L'Oiseau d'Argent could lead 'em throughout at a decent mutuel..
5th: sinkhole is right. Probably have to use Mott's Winsome Ways (2-1) in addition to the 6 & 8...dismissing either Tagg's Miss Poison (9-2) or firster Street Party (6-1) will be difficult to do..
6th: Justy (9-5) burned my $ last out but should go better tomorrow in back-to-back sprint scenario; got a hankering Violette's Baletti (10-1) will be good on the cut back and freshening;
7th: Flying Zee entry (2-1) looks best to me; Flightofthepelican (8-1) could very well relish surface switch for Schosberg;
8th: can make legitimate winning case for nearly all; tepid choice is KMc's Makderah (Ire) who should go better 2d start off bench under JR;
9th: Astoria Sweetheart (2-1) and Clearly a Thrill (3-1) look pretty obvious for inclusion purposes but too often the obvious don't win the $35KMCl events; Albertrani firster Katnik (4-1) may go well and wouldn't have to be much.

from DRF's "Closer Look" for Race 5 (Brian Mulligan):
Kingmambo has hit about with 10% of his debuters in a 235-horse sample and with about 13% of his first time turfers in a 199-horse sample...

Broad Brush has hit with 12% of his first-time turf runners in a 373-horse sample.

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

for a couple a bucks i'm takin a shot. ya may get lucky.
just perusing the brisnet prime power ratings per race
race 4 - pick em
race 5 - 5, 6 have a 9 pt edge over the field
race 6 - Justy, 9, looms 20 pts over the field
race 7 - pick em
race 8 - 4 has a 12 pt edge
race 9 - 9,10 have a 11 pt edge over the field
* a 10 or more pt edge is considered significant.

BRIS has Broad Brush at 14% T and 11% 1st T. Shug at 12% 1st T (48 race sample)
What appeals about her is the strong late pace figs in the debut and the most recent race. I'm tossing the innder tube debacle, assuming something went awry that day as she didn't run again for 4 mos, w/no training til March 16. She's a factor here.

This is a brutal sequence. With a small bankroll, I may try to single Justy but Hushion's firster in there (My Michael) is a worry. Prado from the rail on a War Chant colt.

Although a very small sample, Mott's is a respectable 43% Synth/Turf. I leaning toward tossing the 6 and playing the 5,8 in this leg.

Of course, This is coming from the same guy that tossed Surf Town in the first leg of of the monster HollyPark P6 :o :o

Winsome Ways is almost single-able IMO

Impressionism 5/2 on Equibase ML.

I thought the exact same thing this morning when I looked at Impressionism as a single. She should be fine trying turf for the first time b/c she's bred to do so and going 8.5F, also has the breeding and strong connections. I might do it anyway, not sure. Right now I'm leaving towards Makderah as a solid single.

How much
 

are yall gonna spend on the pick 6 for tomorrow ne chance someone with a small bankroll can hit it.

This is a race that makes me want pull what's left of my hair out...A rail battle between a 290K War Chant yearling purchase and a 240K Maria Mon yearling purchase...Hushion 29%; McLaughlin 31%...throw in a 450k Gulch yearling purch from Rich Violette...Practically a million in horse flesh between the 3, and all of them firsters....

EDIT - Baletti has one start

I noted significant gap in published works on My Michael in the 6th (Dec 20 - Apr 21). Not sure of significance.

I am with Phil and most people; this is a very hard pick 6 sequence. If I was playing alone, I would prob put together a ticket that is around $288. However, we have 4 people willing to invest $300 each into this ticket. Turf racing isn't my best either and Belmont makes it much harder because of the size of their track.

A horse I really love is Whateverwilbwillb in the 7th. I like the first off layoff with this horse. She has a history of running big off a layoff. I also like Miss Poison in the 5th. The sire has good numbers for firsters and I think the horse will be ready to go.

I agree here. The Flying Zee Stable entries look vulnerable here. I love how MTG rated just off the lead in her last, dropped back some, than was able to make up some ground late on the eventual winner. The top finishers(other than the actual winner) in that race look to be the play here. IMO (Fiddlers Pleasure, MTG. and Classic Marilyn)

I strongly disagree.

Unlike Monday's virtually unhittable sequence this one is a huge favorite to be hit.

hmmm, race 4 is friggin contentious...Unigold i kinda like but i need to dig deeper.
now race 7 Whateverwillbwillb seems to do better on a softer turf. tomorrow will be firm. Square Dancing did ok in 06 but is off her game this year. doesn't seem like she cared for the inner at A. she is coming in 2nd off a layoff and has put up a big turf number last year...she like the firm going on the turf. Fiddlers Pleasure, i just wonder if she doesn't love the firm going.

Why was it virtually unhittable the 28th?

I assume, overall, carryovers are hit 90-95% of the time, so you're probably right on tomorrow. What made Monday so different?

Honestly, I expect someone(s) to buy a big ticket and take it down, but given the lack of obvious singles it's difficult to construct a reasonable ticket for less than $1,000-2,000 IMO.

Very tough card.I believe the true single on the card is the 4 in the 8th.I live with the shieks or die with them & I do more livin'.I find Ms poison in the 5th very interesting.Look @ those good steady grass works then mediocre dirt works @ best now she races on the turf.Barclay Tagg kinda dirt to turf & KINGMAMBO too.Things that make you go HHHHMMMMM.

my play barring scr

race 4 1 si o no
4 ricardo a
6 too risky
7 lasu d argent

race 5 4 street party
5 winsome ways

race 6 5 master of the house
9 justy

race 7 4 michale the great
1 and 1a
9 clasic marylin

race 8 7 calogne alt if scr 6 itsnotthe


race 9 9 astoria sweethart..
6 katnick 192 bucks good luck hooves

race 4 - Too Risky 6
race 5 - Eulogize 6
race 6 - Justy 9
race 7 - Square Dancing 8
race 8 - Makderah 4
race 9 - Astoria Sweetheart 9

Early Pics
 

don't have m/l's handy




R4) 1. 5 Unigold WON
2. 7. L'Oiseau d' Argent 3rd
A. 1 Si O No 2nd
B. 4 Ricardo A

R5) 1. 5 Winsome Ways WON
2. 8 Ipressionism 2nd
A. 4 Street Party
B. 6 Eulogize

R6) 1. 3 Intuition Magic 4th
2. 9 Justy WON
A. 2 Peace Mon 3rd
B. 8 Black Jack Blues

R7) 1. 4 Michelle the Great WON
2. 1 Flying Zee entries 2nd
A. 9 Classic Marilyn
B. 7 Fiddler's Pleasure

R8) 1. 4 Makderah WON
2. 5 Lady Renaissence
A. 7 Cologne
B. 3 Hot Proerty


R9) 1. 9 Astoria Sweetheart 3rd
2. 6 Katnik WON
A. 10 Clearly a Thrill SCRATCHED
B. 8 Kitty Kip 2nd


4,5
5
2,3,8,9
1,4,9
4
6,9
48 bets x $2 - 96 beans

R4
4 - Ricardo A
5 - Unigold

R5
4 - Street Party
5 - Winsome Ways
8 - Impressionism

R6
2 - Peace Mon (liked this one when he scratched out this weekend, may not look back)
6 - Baletti
9 - Justy

R7
1-1A Entry (Yikes)

R8 - Tough race...
3 - Hot Property
4 - Makderah
5 - Lady Renaissance

R9
6 - Katnik
9 - Astoria Sweetheart

2 x 3 x 3 x 1 x 3 x 2 = $108 x $2 = $216

GL

*Edited for scratches.*

Hey Mike, nice pics! makes me feel like I'm learning something :D :D :D Best of Luck - Get 'em again!

Thanks Dan, good luck to you too.

Had your girl on my ticket last weekend, thought she had it. I think she found a home on the turf.

They were very contentious and open races and there was only one odds on horse the whole day. An even mildly responsible play ran into the thousands.

I told Byk Monday morning I would be shocked if it was hit.

Thanks, glad you cashed. I was out of town, but hesitated to post anything as We really had no idea she'd take to the turf as well as she did. Having Castro up helped a ton as well, gave her a great ride. He said the 5 got into her on the break and he had to check a bit, and figured it cost her about 3 lengths. I never saw our entry mate figuring, so was amazed to see her catch us to the wire.

Too Much Zip ran a game 2nd the weekend before last, and AD ran 2nd last out over the dirt, so 3 places for the month will pay some bills :)

Gonna try to bring them both back on 6/17 - and plan on heading up to BEL for the day to catch it, they both look like they could make some noise next out

Taking a shot with a "small" $16 ticket -

4th) 2 - in a race where several never seem to find the winner's circle, Taming the Tiger did me well a few Saturday's back = $$$...
why not right back as a "single" in this field.
5th) 3/8 - tough race! trying to beat the favorite Winsome Ways, Tagg trainee looks like she'll love the weeds...
Shug must be respected here also!
6th) 9 - Justy looks like the logical "single" in this pick 6, but I do fear the "4" for Ward.
7th) 1/9 - 1 POE looks the "class" of this statebred turf test, Classic Marilyn also has been very good to me in the past...will include.
8th) 4/5 - these two get the call here, both done well "out of town".
9th) 6 - singling the firster in the final leg, although bottom two (9/10) are the "ones to beat".

The play:

2 - 3/8 - 9 - 1/9 - 4/5 - 6