who will retire first, and why?
 

I say curlin is 1/9 to retire before street sense. for the obvious reasons. anyone care to differ?

I think it's going to be Street Sense and I think it will be before the summer is over. Today's horses just can't take the kind of tough races he's had back to back to back to back. Especially with the short breaks. He's already won the Derby. I think it's going to be Street Sense. But Curlin won't be far behind. I'd say we have only a 25% chance of seeing one of them in the BC and a 10% chance of seeing both.

What would it take to get you to retire?

U are a great guy.

Street Cry and Smart Strike may have a lot to do with it.

Smart Strike is pretty hot right now. Smart Strike is already listed 75k could even go up a little. Not sure of the age/condition of the Stallion, but with that asset already maxed out, Curlin can retire and start his own legacy whenever they feel he is ready.
Street Sense is one of Street Cry's leading runners. Street Sense seems genuinely healthy , the Bluegrass was basically a solid work, so after 2 big races, one of which was all-out, he should be fine after a month or so off. Street Cry is a bargain at "only" 30k listed as of now and it is a good bet to increase a bit on his own before Street Sense is retired. Street Sense running a big 3yo campaign could be a major asset to his sire, and his future earnings at stud.

It's a gift.

Curlin does not come from the greatest family which may adveresely affect his stud career. but his family is solid with dams that have produced many runners and some black type.

I would hope both of them will finish out the 3 yo season. I mean we need some horses to challenge Invasor, dont we....Whatever happened to the days when the 3yo champion would head out to California and aim for the Strub series for 4 yo's.....

seems like light years ago

Light years are a measure of distance, not time.

Thanks. I'll be here all week.

I thought it was a Pearl Jam song.

i'd hate to see any of them go.

hard to believe tafel would be in a rush to retire--if he was interested in easy money, he'd have sold the guy back after the juvie, when offers started pouring in.
as for curlin, smart strike isn't exactly a huge horse, so i don't know that there will be a lot of interest in curlin-just like there wasn't in medaglia d'oro. el prado does well, as does smart strike, but they aren't A-list...

i think the one to watch is hard spun-everyone is looking for a colt by danzig to step in where the sire left off. hard spun is a good prospect, danzig has several in the top of the sires list, but no BIG, classic horse on the racetrack lately...talking stateside here of course...

What do you mean Smart Strike isn't huge? I think he's had as much success as Street Cry in terms of average runner earnings, has he not?

barring an injury, Street Sense will be around this year and next.

and street crys first crop is running this year, as three year olds...hard to compare the two
yeah, smart strike is having a heck of a year, but no, he's not HUGE. i think a lot more people would be interested in street cry than smart strike. but i don't see the clamor like in past years with smarty, with afleet alex...probably because the breeding industry has taken a bit of a down turn lately.

If any retire this year it will be after the BC

See Exchange Rate.

well, here's hoping. but we all know the nature of the business, and altho we want all of them to remain healthy and injury-free, that may not be the case. but i'd like to see no early retirements!

exchange rate was a classic race performer?

being a son of an internationally respected and desirable stallion like Danzig, Hard Spun is the biggest candidate for early retirement. If he had won the Derby or Preakness, the next stone-bruise might have been enough. But he needs a major G1 triumph on his CV before he goes to stud - the Belmont, Travers, JC Gold Cup, etc.; they'll keep going at least until he has one of these.

Well, he hardly qualifies as a classic race performer himself... but, not a bad career... most importantly is that ER is siring graded winners, including a GI.

From Padua's site...

New York Grade 2 winner EXCHANGE RATE was a $1.4 million yearling who lived up to expectations in his three juvenile starts, breaking his maiden in :57.09 first time out and then placing in two Graded stakes. He showed his ability to get a route of ground as a three-year-old by winning the Risen Star S. over 1 1/16 miles. As a four-year-old he won on turf and dirt, including a 1:21.24 victory in the Tom Fool H.-G2 and 3rd in the Kilroe H.-G1 and Churchill Downs H.-G2.

i was speaking about hard spun, and what he's done with himself thus far, compared to other danzig colts here lately--war front for instance.

oh, I thought you were referring to Hard Spun's prospects as a sire versus SS and Curlin. And I was just saying there is a son of Danzig out there doing quite well and will probably do better this year than last. There are a couple Danzig's doing okay, but Exchange Rate is probably the most notable having sired Swap Fliparoo, Xchanger, Ermine and others...

well, i am referrring to that....i just think of the three, hard spun will have the most commercial appeal, knowing the impact his sire and others in that line have had over the years on the breed, not just here but worldwide. hard spun is a better prospect racing wise than has been seen here the last few years from danzig, who hasn't had a big classic horse lately in the u.s.
everyone wants the new danzig to pick up where the old one left off--and the new danehill overseas, which is why holy roman emperor disappeared so quickly when george washington proven infertile (or sub-fertile, whatever).

Although he's not a sprinter in the traditional sense, I wouldn't be suprised to see the connections of Hard Spun cut him back to 7F and take a run at the King's Bishop next out