Betting The Preakness
 

For starters, I'm going to eliminate Hard Spun and Curlin from my exacta tickets. Even though the Derby forced me to throw the history books in the trash, I'm still hanging on to my "Solid Losing Effort In The Derby=Overbet in Defeat In the Preakness" angle. (See Imperialism, Closing Argument, Medaglia D' Oro, and others). I also think Curlin needs a rest.

Second, I think Street Sense will win. I know that Hard Spun and Curlin will get major support at the windows, but I can't see Street Sense going off any higher than 6-5. Maybe I'm way off base, but that's what I'm thinking. So unless I decide to bet serious cash on Street Sense to win, I have to hit the exacta if I want a nice payday.

Here's the problem. I don't really like any of the other contenders. King of the Roxy ran his final 1/8 at Santa Anita in almost 14 seconds. Xchanger has never run well routing against top competition. I'm not playing Mint Slewlip. Flying First Class, on paper, appears to be a sprinter. Circular Quay's running style does not exactly scream "Pimlico!" There's something about CP West that intrigues me, but he also has yet to do anything around two turns.

Where does that leave me?

I guess it leaves me with a win bet on Street Sense. How boring.

I am pretty confident the same top 3 in the derby will be the top 3 in the Preakness. I think the order will change to Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, but I can't see any other horse finishing ahead of them. Flying First Class is interesting but I don't know if he wants to go that far.


I really think Curlin's Derby was better than people think.

Street Sense to win over the 2 longest shots on the board; or a show bet on the longest shot.

Street Sense a strong single in pick 3 and 4 wagers.

I was thinking about the Pick 4. Let's see how the card looks.

I doubt I will use anyone besides Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Pick-4.

Did he even run in the Preakness?? I agree with you about this race being so vanilla. Chalk City. Great race to narrow down to 1-2 horses for multi race wagers though.

Closing Argument ran 9th at 7-1.

Yeah, but he was 9/2 in the derby... he'll be 1/1 at best in the Preakness.. in a much smaller field.

ML Odds should be 5/2 or 2/1 on SS with hiim at 7/5 or even at post.

Curlin probably gets 9/2 or 3/1 at post

Hard Spun 3rd choice somewhere close to 3/1 or 4/1


It should be a decent betting race beside Street Sense.

That's how I'm playing it. The Preakness looks formful and I imagine the tri might pay $12/$1 wagered, so I'll be looking for big prices in the pick 4 and throwing the single on Street Sense in the Preakness leg.

Well said, 9/2 was a huge gift on him in the Derby, also a price that will never be seen on him again in all likelyhood.

Let me ask you this.
You say "I'm throwing out Hard Spun and Curlin" then say "I don't really like any of the other contenders." That is flat out contradictory. If you don't like any of the other contenders, by default you like Hard Spun and/or Curlin to finish 2nd. There's been PLENTY of occasions where the exacta was the same group as the Derby, for recent example 1998 (Real Quiet-V Gallop) and 1997 trifecta (Silver Charm over Free House and the Captain). If that's what you think will happen, then play it!!!

Didn't Smarty-Lion Heart go 1-2 in both?

Nevermind, Lion Heart was 4th, though nobody was in the same ballpark as Smarty Jones that day.

Philcski,

I'm not playing Hard Spun or Curlin for a couple of reasons.

1) I think Street Sense will win.
2) An exacta with SS over HS and Curlin won't pay anything.
3) Even though my devotion to historical trends cost me in the Derby, I'm sticking with what I have learned over the years in the Preakness. One of the things I have learned is that horses who run big in defeat in the Derby seem to regress in the Preakness. Or at the very least, the don't run as well as the betting public expects. The horse who best fits this in this spot is Hard Spun.
4) Like I said, I think Curlin needs a rest. He's done a lot this spring.

Maybe a better way of saying "run big in defeat in the Derby" would be to say "outrun their odds in the Derby."

Final point: Saying I don't like Hard Spun and Curlin has more to do with my historical observation, and less to do with their talent level. My thoughts on the others are more based on basic handicapping.

nope. rock hard ten finished a diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii istant 2nd, with Lion Heart 4th.

No... Rock Hard Ten was second.

Justin, why do you think that 4 starts is a lot? Was this colt unsound before they started him or something? :confused:

If you think its a SS-Hard Spun Exacta u just hit it HARD

Why put 500 win on a 6/5 horse

When you can put 500 on a cold exacta that might pay 4/1??? especially if you are confident

2) SS over HS or Curlin will pay around $12-18. Certainly better than nothing. In fact, if SS is 6/5 (which I agree is the likely price) and you simply bet exactas to HS and Curlin at the $15 willpay, you're getting 15/4 on your money instead. I don't need to tell you that's better than 6/5.
3) Over the years? What, the last 4? I just gave you two examples debunking said "trend" from the last decade!

All I'm saying is you're costing yourself value if your true opinion is what you stated and you stick to just a win bet.

I beat you to it... you just wanted to say Rock Hard Ten :D

Retire him. He's done enough.

Isn't that 15/4? 3.75/1, which is better than 6/5 but far less than 11/2.
I don't see 11/2.

I think it's hilarious that before the Derby no one liked Curlin because he didn't have enough starts, now everyone's off of him, it seems, because they say he needs a break.

Just an observation...I didn't use him at all in the Derby and probably will use him minimally on Saturday.

NT

Yes. I have no idea where I came up with 11/2. 15/4 is correct and amended...

Why of course... every gal's dream. :D

I don't think those two opinions are mutually exclusive at all. They all play into that "Too much too soon" angle.

I agree...I suppose I should expand on what I said by adding that if a person felt like Curlin needed more experience heading into the Derby and was unlikely to win because of a lack of seasoning, hasn't that been rectified in a way.

Curlin ran a much different race in the Derby than he ever has before, he faced more adversity and was taken completely out of his game. In a sense he reminds me of a more talented Brother Derek, a handy winner over average fields who got a rough, wide trip in the Derby before closing late. However, I think Curlin is going to be the 3rd choice and I'm not really convinced Hard Spun is any better than him.

As far as talk of going 1 or 2 deep in the multi-race exotics, Curlin will be the first horse, if there are any at all, I use to help Street Sense.

NT

Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:

Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument

It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.

And V-Gallop and Menifee ran 2nd behind the same horse they ran second to in the Derby (I didn't even use '99 in my suggestion of exactas that came out the same way as the Derby.) I highly doubt Hard Spun runs off the board against this mediocre group.

LMFAO. I feel shortchanged.

I see it:

SS 1-1
HS 7/2
Curlin 4/1
----------
CQ 10/1
KOTR 15/1
-----------
MJ 40/1
X 40/1
FFC 40/1
CPW 40/1

I used about 15% hold.

I don't think the Ex's of SS/HS-Curlin pay more than low teens.

SS/CQ pays $25 at most.

Ex's of HS-Curlin/SS are probably $22-$25.

Unless you can get one of the bottom tier runners to crash the Ex, it seems awful hard to make money here in the Exacta unless you have a strong positive opinion on two of the top three and a strong negative opinion on the third of that group. Tri/Supers sem worthwhile to me only with a middle placing on those tickets with one of the bottom tier runners.

I don't trust CQ enough to use him on any narrow Ex ticket. I'll look at the bottom tier horses and work out a potential ticket that way, but I'm not excited about the verticals.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the race.

I'll probably put some money across the board on C P West or something... I did the same thing last year with Hemingway's Key so I didn't totally lose my ass on the Preakness. I had tossed Bernardini (stupid) and played a straight exacta using Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint.

I think you're dead on, except for the bottom horses may be a little shorter than 40-1. TRUE odds are probably close to 40-1, they'll probably go off at closer to 20-1.

I am betting Curlin to win.

I think Street Sense has to go wide and lays down or hangs a bit.


(Now that CQ is in, I'll probably change my mind and bet him for some stupid reason)

But today, my pick is Curlin. By 3+ lengths.

Am tempted to play KotRoxy in some sort of exotic. He's got the speed needed for this race. Stamina a big question; is 15-1 enough to warrant a win bet?? Does the fatman have an opinion?

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)