Pletcher could have won the Derby . . .
 

Rags to Riches. Ran a better final time in bad track conditions. Tack on a :12 clip to her final and she ran faster than Street Sense. She was really motoring past the wire in the Oaks.

Pletcher might have had his Derby.

I really don't think so, but we have no way of knowing.

She couldn't have possibly done worse than his colts.

I try not to jump on the "greatest" bandwagon -- but Rags looks scary good. She might be the measure of some of the game's greatest fillies. That was a devastating performance on a bad track.

104 Beyer is very solid, not spectacular.

Pletcher made the right call on this one, and was rewarded with a smashing victory in the Oaks. It was the right choice because it gave her the chance to fully dominate her own kind instead of chasing the derby dream.

I think she could have run a very respectable race in the derby, but I doubt if she could have won it. Rags is in an elite group of fillies. The sky is the limit for this girl.

Running her in the Derby would have been the worst thing to do.

She should run in the Belmont. She is better than Jazil and her sire is a Belmont winner.

12.19 on that track was very good. She tracked solid fractions through the slop and still finished in 12.19. That track was a quagmire.

The boys had a much better track to run on. Street Sense closed with a storm. But only because he got a dream trip on the rail after sitting 19th down the backstretch. He was right around :25 for the final quarter.

Looks to me like Rags coulda won that race.

I know it's hard to think outside the box sometimes . . .

Rags and Tiago in an exacta box. Throw Street Sense in for the tri.

Wasn't Beyer the same clown who said Curlin wouldn't finish in the top ten?

Even with the bonehead ride by Albarado Curlin was third. Might have won the damn thing with a different jockey.

CROW, it's what's for dinner...



Attachment 381

Pletcher needed Street Sense in his barn to win yesterday.

ah, then hard spun would have gotten roses after all!!

I honestly think she would have been close given a good trip. May not have beat SS but would have been right there. IMO she's as good as any 3yo this year. Too bad Magnificence was injured.. she is a top class filly also and it would have been an outstanding year! The Oaks was the right decision though, and she was able to prove to her doubters she can beat anyone in her division. Great races Friday and Saturday!!

I wouldnt be surprised to see RTR take on the boys later on this year. Maybe she can run in the Haskell like Serena's Song!

with 20 horse fields, it's a shame to see some of those colts go at it, let alone a filly. she ran in the right spot for her.

Keep her versus her own sex right now...maybe later in the year
but throwing her to the "wolves" right now wouldn't be right.

agreed

I think fillies have to take on the colts early while they are ahead of them. The boys are going to keep improving while the girls are already there.

I didn't see the Oaks so I can't say one way or the other.

Hats off to Street Sense. They stuck to a strategy that worked -- mainly because of pinhead (sorry, had to throw in a Beyerism) moves by everyone else. It was clear they were going to run up the rail. They trained up the rail. Should have been obvious.

2:02 is nothing earthshaking. And the final quarter was decent but coming from 19th place nothing earthshaking either. The field pretty much imploded.

The question is now -- can he some back in 2 weeks? And then 3 weeks?

I'll hang with Curlin at Pimlico if we see a new jockey. Street Sense will be the one to beat. He handles the tight Churchill Downs turns well. And the turns at Pimlico are very similar.

Pletcher said he's only running Roxy. Should be a short field.

Would like to see Street Sense on the turf some day. He would run well on the grass.

JMHO, but no, she would not have beaten the colts. Isolating an 1/8th, or looking at the final time myopically, or the Beyer # for that matter doesn't say enough to say she would have beaten the boys. The Beyer, the 1/8th, or the final time -- and a great deal of other things -- does not take into consideration that she would have had to line with 19 boys, break with them, race with them and look many of them right in the eye.

It's easy to see why many would think so, but it's a hypothetical and in this case, I don't think so.

Eric

I coulda won state.

LOL.

And if you are using Beyers for this, Silverbulletday put up a 107 in the Oaks. When she faced the boys at Belmont she finished 5th at 5-1.

Don't forget that Serena's Song was in the Derby too. And also that she had beaten colts in the Jim Beam before the Derby. They took their chances against males and she more than held her own.

Kinda nice to bring this up again . . .

Actually, it upsets me to see this thread. It reminds me of why I'm more upset than I've been in a while over a race........Pletcher and co. denied us an even more special moment of seeing a filly win the Derby again. The Belmont is nice but it's not the Derby.

eh, woulda coulda shoulda.

she won a classic...well, two. she won a filly classic with the oaks.


i want to see her vs the guys again. bring on the travers. she's the best 3 yo in pletchers barn, don't waste our time with those pretenders todd!! run the filly again!

i happen to think that she would not have won the derby, and that Pletcher made exactly the right moves with her.

She won the Kentucky Oaks and the Belmont Stakes, really, how much better can it get without ruining the fairy tale?

The other two triple crown races were great in their own right, Curlin closing to nose out Street Sense. SS and Borel ridin' rail to win the Derby. Great last 5 weeks.

I think a filly winning the Belmont is pretty special considering there is no one alive that witnessed the last time it happened

Today IS special. Winning any grade one is special and winning a classic race or a BC race is even more special than that. But there is only one Derby. I think people dream more about winning the Derby than the Belmont. There's nothing wrong with winning the Oaks and the Belmont. Nothing at all. But how do u think Pletcher would feel if, when he's ready to retire, he's never won a Derby (I think he will win a few though) and he has look back and know that he didn't even take a chance with the best 3yo he's had? That would hurt.

i know there are hall of fame trainers who never won any classic...he's in rarified air right now, especially considering he, like lukas, won a classic with a filly.


i said back when they first started talking belmont that they did right to pass the derby, that 20-horse fiasco is not the place to be.

There is no evidence that I have seen that would conclusively say she would have won the Derby. She is a very good filly but she didn't exactly leave Curlin in the dust today. Rags, Curlin, and SS are all very good horses that are extremely close in ability. They all have strong points and weaknesses. The trip would probably be the deciding factor in any race between the three and SS had a perfect one in the Derby and unless she had one too I cant say with any confidence that she would have beat him that day.

Never any guarantees. Maybe it's just my philosophy. If I'm going to take a shot, I'm going to do it with my best bullets. If I lose, I'll know I gave it my best shot and it just wasn't meant to be. I know it's easy to say from behind a keyboard but I believe that I'd be the kind of trainer (and I know there are plenty on here that are glad I'm not) that would never be left wondering "what if?" I'd be a Lukas type. Can't win if u don't enter.

You had better have a lot of money to buy your own. Running too much has killed alot of my business. If I could learn to sit it out and just wait for the perfect spot or just claim and drop , my % would be a whole lot better and I'm sure I would have a lot more horses to train. There wont be anymore Lukas types. The game has changed too much. There are too many 'experts' armed with sheets and too many owners who only look at win % when choosing a trainer and listen to the 'experts' with the sheets. I'm not saying that you are wrong for wanting to take a Derby shot, but I do think that she was far from a likely winner.